Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM
Horse Racing Best Bets, Odds - Sunday's At the Gate, NYRA
Ete Indien stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby (G1) yesterday with a gate to wire score in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
The Patrick Biancone trainee was second in the Holy Bull (G2) in his previous start. He set sharp early fractions and put the competition away earning a solid 97 Beyer Speed Figure in the win.
The colt was my third choice in the race. My top pick Country Grammer took some play, bet down to 7-1 from his 15-1 morning line. He ran in spots but ended up losing a three-way photo to check in fifth.
Maximum Security looked awesome winning the $20 million Saudi Cup yesterday, avoiding a wandering Mucho Gusto in the stretch to get the job done.
The mare Midnight Bisou came with a valiant effort up the inside to run second over a racing strip that seemed kinder to speed over the last two days.
The big surprise was the absolute clunker thrown in by the Bob Baffert trained McKinzie, who did not fire, fading to finish 11th.
As expected, the U.S. contingent dominated, and it will be interesting who will head to Meydan for the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) later this month.
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
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Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#5 Fast Break 4-5
#4 New Frontier 8-5
#3 Tri Saint Lorenzo 15-1
#1 Point Humor 5-1
Analysis: Fast Break tracked the early pace, took over the lead heading for home and could not hold off the winner in a runner up finish in the mud as the chalk. This colt has now started for time and has been the beaten favorite in each outing. Her last two were on wet tracks and three back was going long at Monmouth Park. The colt cuts back to six furlongs here and faces four foes it appears he should be able to handle. The $400,000 Keeneland purchase is by Uncle Mo out of a Zensational mare that has dropped one other foals to race, no winners to date.
New Frontier prompted the early pace and could not get by the gate to wire winner in the stretch last out in a runner up finish here in the mud in his local debut. He has ow made 11 starts and has landed din the money in 8 of those outings without picking up his diploma. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and likely to complete a chalky exacta to kick off the day.
WIN: #5 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 5 / 3,4
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 7 Alw $51,000N1X (3:04 ET)
#2 Flawless Bourbon 6-1
#1 Opry 2-1
#6 Bourbon in May 9-5
#7 Surf and Turf 15-1
Analysis: Flawless Bourbon makes his turf debut here after a sharp maiden score last out on the fake stuff at Woodbine in his third career start, drawing off to win by 6 3/4 lengths. He is also returning off the layoff for the Attfield barn. He has a solid turf pedigree, by Not Bourbon out of the Grade 1 turf stakes winner Internallyflawless ($275,598) who has dropped three other winners and two have won on turf including turf stakes winner Internal Bourbon ($282,709). A steady string of works at Payson for his return and we should catch a fair price.
Opry is also coming back off the bench, last seen at Belmont Park last June in a runner up finish at this level going a mile on turf. The colt graduated in his second career start by winning the With Anticipation (G3). He caught yielding turf in his next two starts including a 10th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Churchill Downs in '18. Pletcher is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff.
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 9 Clm $16,000N3L (5:31 ET)
#3 Elios Milos 5-2
#4 Air On Fire 3-1
#8 Bustin the Rules 4-1
#9 Flat Rate 5-1
Analysis: Elios Milos stalked the early pace, came with a five wide run and finished up well for a close up third last out at this level, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot. He made that run over a racing strip that was splaying to inside speed. The runner up Desert Lights at this level on Feb. 9. He was a sharp winner two back against $16,000 non-winners of two with a good late rally. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and there is enough early zip signed up to set things up for him in this spot.
Air On Fire exits the same race as our top pick. He was coming back off a six-month layoff for the Rice barn and sent off as the betting favorite. The gelding tracked the early pace and weakened in the final furlong to check in fifth. Rice took this guy over Servis and had to put him on the sidelines after the claim. The barn is 17% winners with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff.
WIN: #3 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,8,9
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,8,9 / 3,4,6,8,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #3 Tri Saint Lorenzo 15-1
R2: #2 Sister Alexa 12-1
R3: #3 Thegoodmind 20-1
R4: #5 Angry Moon 10-1
R5: #5 Rosey’s Invasion 12-1
R7: #7 Carlisle Belle 8-1
Good luck today!