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Mar 13, 2020

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks and Analysis - Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park on March 14, 2020

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks
2020 Kentucky Derby Prep Predictions

REBEL STAKES (Grade 2)

Date: Saturday, March 14, 2020
Post Time: 6:23 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: Fox Sports 2
Race #: 10 Distance: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles (8 1/2 furlongs)
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $1,000,000
Track: Oaklawn Park
Location: Hot Springs, Arkansas

REBEL STAKES
Handicapping Analysis

(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Nadal (5-2) Bob Baffert will look to add to his record six wins in the event when he takes the blinkers off the San Vicente winner. Will make his first start around two turns and should be forwardly placed from his inside draw.

2 – Excession (30-1) Exits the “slower” division of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds last out and has won just once in eight tries. Would need a monumentally fast pace and then need for it to collapse to have any chance.

3 – Basin (3-1) Makes his first start since taking the Hopeful at Saratoga over six months ago. This will be his first start beyond seven furlongs. He should work out a solid trip behind the speed under Javier Castellano who rides for the first time.

4 – Silver Prospector (7-2) Asmussen’s “other” runner is a two-time stakes winner, including a grinding-out win in the Southwest over this course, most recently. Beat Tiz the Law in KJC last fall at Churchill Downs.

5 – No Parole (8-1) Had clobbered fellow Louisiana breds at both Delta Downs at the Fair Grounds in his first three starts, winning by a combined 34 lengths. Gets a new rider in Joe Talamo for his open company unveiling and figures to give Nadal fits on the front-end.

6 – Three Technique (7-2) To use some harness parlance, he had a “no-chance-trip” after breaking awkwardly when away last from his outside draw in the Smarty Jones before closing nicely to finish fourth in what was his route debut.

7 – Coach Bahe (30-1) Adds Lasix after breaking his maiden in the mud in an off-the-turf event at Fair Grounds. Appears overmatched against these.

8 – American Theorem (6-1) Finished a distant second in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita last fall after breaking his maiden on debut. Tough spot, and draw, for return but always felt like he had some promise.

REBEL STAKES
Predictions - If I had $100

$40 Win on 6
$10 Exacta Box 6 with 1,3,8

Anthony's Eleven Power Rankings

Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 146 on May 2, 2020 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years’ Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1 with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Kentucky Derby Odds

A11 - Updated March 13, 2020

Rank, Horse (Pool 3 Odds), Trainer, Jockey

1) Tiz the Law (7-1)
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco

The results of last weekend’s preps have done nothing but solidify his top-of-the-heap status for me. His stock looks better and better every week and he’s only raced once this season.

2) Modernist (35-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

More addition by subtraction here. I believe he’ll run all day and it appears that most of these are going to struggle with the distances of the Triple Crown races. Hope you were able to get some of that 35-1 in Pool 3.

3) Enforceable (23-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Son of Tapit is another enjoying his work as the distances get longer. Closed against biased course at Fair Grounds to get second in faster division of Risen Star.

4) Gouverneur Morris (26-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

Made his sophomore debut a winning one when he wore down the speed in an allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. Last year, he broke his maiden on closing day at Saratoga in the slop before finishing second at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity.

5) Honor A.P. (14-1)
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith

Finished second in his first start in nearly four months behind a loose-on-the-lead Baffert favorite who makes his debut on the “Eleven” this week. He should improve next out. He’ll need to.

6) Authentic (6-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Say what you will about getting an easy trip in the San Felipe on the front-end last week, but this guy needs to be taken seriously. Maybe he’s winning his races by open lengths because he is just plain better than these.

7) Independence Hall (27-1)
Trainer: Mike Trombetta
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Obviously talented, having won the first three starts of his career, including a couple of stakes at Aqueduct, by a combined 20-plus lengths, his pre-race antics will eventually catch up to him. Finished second in the Sam F. Davis in his first two-turn start last out. Jock currently out with broken wrist.

8) Sole Volante (20-1)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Florent Geroux

Was left wayyyyy too much to do in the Tampa Bay Derby yet still managed an inside bid to get the place money behind massive upsetter King Guillermo. Always seems to me more pace the closer we get to the first Saturday in May and that will certainly help his cause.

9) Candy Tycoon (4-1 - Field)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Manny Franco

Showed little speed before closing to be second to runaway winner in Fountain of Youth after taking them gate-to-wire in his route debut two starts back, his fourth start overall. Had a ton of buzz last summer at Saratoga and has started to live up to it as the distances get longer.

10) Three Technique (29-1)
Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart
Jockey: Luis Saez

Makes his second start of the year and at Oaklawn in the rebel on Saturday. Saez will be aboard for the first time. He almost must be tighter and get a better trip from his runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones last out.

11) Charlatan (12-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke

The Justify comparisons figure to continue next week as he’s entered in an entry-level allowance contest at Santa Anita on Saturday. While it won’t be the toughest field he’s ever faced it certainly won’t be a cakewalk. Interested to see how the son of Speightstown handles the stretch out in distance.



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