Florida Derby Horse Racing Picks and Betting Strategies

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks
2020 Kentucky Derby Prep Predictions

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Date: Saturday, March 28, 2020
Post Time: 6:36 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: NBCSN
Race #: 14
Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 miles
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $750,000
Track: Gulfstream Park
Location: Hallandale, Florida

Handicapping Analysis

(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – As Seen On Tv (12-1) Was no match when third in Fountain of Youth, his first start around two turns. Appeared to struggle late in the game and now has to navigate an additional half-furlong. May try and play catch-me-if-you-can from inside draw.

2 – Shivaree (30-1) Comes in off a series of sprints and his lone route effort was abysmal. Blinkers come off, so he may try to settle, but he’ll need to improve leaps and bounds against these to even think about getting a piece.

3 – Disc Jockey (20-1) Tries two turns for the first time after a second-place finish in a minor-stakes as the 3-5 favorite. Has improved with each start but appears in way over his head.

4 – Soros (SCR) Will be scratched.

5 – Gouverneur Morris (8-1) Will try to add on to trainer Todd Pletcher’s five wins, the most in the history of the event, in just his second start of the year. Easily took an entry level allowance/optional claimer across the state at Tampa Bay Downs last out.

6 – Ajaaweed (SCR) Will be scratched.

7 – Tiz the Law (6-5) Cruised to an easy win after a bit of an interesting trip in the Holy Bull last out, his first start since finishing third in the slop at Churchill when last seen in late November. Has done everything right on fast ground. Believe he is best of the crop at this moment.

8 – My First Grammy (50-1) Maiden would have a better shot at winning Song of the Year than this heat.

9 – Independence Hall (9-2) If the favorite stubs his proverbial toe, I think this guy is the one who will beat him. Won his first three starts before running into the teeth of a tough pace in the Sam Davis at Tampa, his first start around two turns. Reunited with Rosario for this.

10 – Candy Tycoon (20-1) I thought he’d be on or close to the lead from his rail draw in the Fountain of Youth but instead he had just two horses beat going down the backside. Closed nicely to get place money and is as a live a longshot as there is in here.

11 – Sassy But Smart (50-1) Has won just once in four tries, a maiden race against fellow Florida-breds on the grass two starts back. Would have been better suited for Cutler Bay earlier on card.

12 – Ete Indien (4-1) Was soundly beaten by Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull then came back to roll by almost nine lengths in the Fountain of Youth when left alone on the lead. Have to think he faces some pace pressure in here. Going to try and make some money by getting him out of the number.

13 – Rogue Element (50-1) Another maiden. I will never understand the logic.

Predictions - If I had $100

$50 Exacta 7-9
$20 Exacta 7-10
$5 Triple key 7 over 5-9-10