Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM
Saturday's Horse Racing Picks and Odds from Gulfstream Park on Saturday March 28
Despite being in the midst of a global pandemic we have made it to Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park where we have a blockbuster 14-race card that features nine stakes races.
The highlight is the $750,000 Florida Derby (G1), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The race has always served as a major prep for the Run for the Roses, but we have a unique situation this year as the Kentucky Derby has been postponed until the first Saturday of September.
Tiz the Law is the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Florida Derby. A field of 13 were entered but 30-1 longshot Soros and 20-1 Ajaaweed will scratch out of the race. That is good news for Ete Indien, who drew the 12 post but will move a couple of paths closer to the rail.
The colt took the field gate to wire to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his last start and is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line.
One other key scratch on the card today is Newspaperofrecord, the 9-5 morning line favorite for the $100,000 Sand Springs, the ninth race on the card.
We got more bad news yesterday about 30 minutes before post time of the opener at Santa Anita. The Los Angeles County Health Department requested racing cease at the racetrack. There have been no positive tests at the racetrack to date.
The question now is how long Gulfstream Park continues to run. The “championship meeting” ends on Sunday, but the spring/summer meeting gets underway on Thursday, April 2.
The track has a mandatory payout of the Jackpot 6 today, which is leading some to speculate that Saturday could be the final day of the meeting until this the Coronavirus crisis is over.
I guess we will find out later today or tomorrow.
Among the tracks still running are Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Fonner Park, Will Rogers Downs, Los Alamitos, Remington Park and Oaklawn Park.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
There is national coverage on FS2 on Saturday and Sunday on FS1 from 1:30 to 7:00 ET. The NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network from 4:00 to 8:00 ET on Saturday and Sunday.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.
To purchase my Gulfstream Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Gulfstream Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Alw $51,000N1X (11:30 ET)
#12 Enjoyitwhilewecan 12-1
#5 Zabava 4-1
#10 Scatnap 5-1
#7 Codrington 9-2
Analysis: Enjoyitwhilewecan pressed the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish in the slop last out in a race taken off the turf, beaten just a head in her first start against winners. It was her firs go since breaking her maiden last March at Aqueduct going a mile on the main track in her third career start. Now she tries turf for the first time and she has a solid enough pedigree, out of a Dynaformer mare that has dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner. She has a good work at palm Meadow s on grass. The McLaughlin is soon becoming a jockey agent and this is one of his last few starters as a trainer. The trainer is 15% winners moving runners form dirt to turf. Saez takes the call and this gal should be a decent price here.
Zabava tracked the early pace and could not get by the winner late in a solid effort in a runner up finish at this level going 1 3/16 miles on turf. He was put up to first thanks to a DQ three back against $50,000 starter allowance foes and made a mild late bid two back to finish third. The cut back in distance here should suit this guy.
WIN: #12 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 5,12 / 5,7,10,12
TRI: 5,12 / 5,7,10,12 / 5,7,9,10,12
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
TAM Race 8 Hcp $16,000s (3:55 ET)
#9 Onarock 7-2
#3 Hope Again 3-1
#2 Fast Fire 6-1
#6 Dover Cliffs 8-1
Analysis: Onarock may be able to turn the tables today after running third and beaten a nose and a neck behind a couple of foes he runs into again here. The gelding came with a good late rally after racing near the back of the pack early in a race without a ton of pace. Now today they go two more furlongs at 1 3/8 miles and this guy is bred to handle the added ground, by Red Rocks out of a Dalakhani mare. There are a couple of runners in here that have some early foot which should set things up nicely for him.
Hope Again was sent off as the favorite last out and finished gamely to get the job done over five of these. The gelding has now won 3 of his 6 trips over the Tampa turf. He picks up two pounds and I am not convinced he wants to get two more furlongs. He seldom runs a bad one, winning half of his 14 career starts, all on turf. He is a legit threat here for Delgado who is having a solid meeting here but our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.
WIN: #9 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 2,3,6,9
TRI: 3,9 / 2,3,6,9 / 2,3,5,6,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 11 The Gulfstream Park Oaks G2 (4:49 ET)
#4 Lake Avenue 9-2
#9 Tonalist's Shape 5-2
#5 Spice Is Nice 3-1
#6 Swiss Skydiver 10-1
Analysis: Lake Avenue weakened to finish fourth in the Busher Invitational at a one turn mile at Aqueduct in her last outing. it was her first start off a three-month break and she was down along a deep rail much of the trip. She ran big two back winning the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs in her first start against winners. She set the early fractions and drew clear to win by four lengths. The Mott trainee has been based at Payson all winter and shipped to New York. She had one good breeze since her return and she figures to bounce back with a much better effort in this spot. She has a nice pedigree, by Tapit out of the multiple Grade 1 stakes winner Seventh Street ($716,000). Rosario is aboard for the first time her and the 9-2 morning line looks more than fair.
Tonalist's Shape dueled for the early lead and opened up heading for home, holding on to win the Davona Dale (G2) by 1 14 lengths in a sharp effort. She is now perfect in five starts, two of those wins coming at a one turn mile. She now goes two turns for the first time here for the Joseph barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting, hitting at a 27% clip. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and pedigree wise she should have no issue with more ground. She is by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist out of a Harlan's Holiday mare. She likely gets bet down from her 5-2 morning line.
Spice Is Nice broke her maiden over the main track her at a mile in her debut by a dozen lengths. She came back with a solid effort in the Davona Dale in a runner up finish where she was sent off as the chalk. She was nearly three length clear of the rest of the field and she looks as if she still has some upside. She is by Curlin out of the Grade 1 stakes winner Dame Dorothy ($749,740) and also should be able to handle her first trip around two turns.
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 4,5,6,9
TRI: 4,9 / 4,5,6,9 / 4,5,6,7,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #12 Enjoyitwhilewecan 12-1
R2: #8 Overdeliver 8-1
R2: #10 Gump 8-1
R4: #3 Get Smokin 8-1
R5: #2 Olympic Village 10-1
R5: #6 Squeezadios 8-1
R6: #10 Rare Form 15-1
R7: #9 Seducer 8-1
R9: #6 La Signare 8-1
R10: #2 Kelsey’s Cross 10-1
R10: #8 Beau Belle 8-1
R11: #6 Swiss Skydiver 10-1
R12: #10 Focus Group 8-1
R12: #2 Benna’s Boy 10-1
R13: #1 English Bee 8-1
R13: #7 Social Paranoia 10-1
R14: #6 Gouverneur Morris 8-1
Good luck today!