Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM

Matt Winn Odds, Picks and Betting Strategies

Bet the Arkansas Derby at TVG!

Matt Winn Odds and Free Picks


  • Date: Saturday, May 23
  • Post-Time: 5:44 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: FS1
  • Race: 10
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Churchill Downs
  • Location: Louisville, Kentucky

Matt Winn Preview Analysis

(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Mystic Guide (15-1 odds) Was lights-out breaking his maiden in second start of career and first going around two turns after an above-average debut sprinting. Draws well but gets a class test in his first start in over two months.

2 – Pneumatic (4-1) Broke his maiden in a key-race sprint that has seen at least three horses come back to win in their next starts then looked even better closing to win at the short-stretch mile distance next out, both at Oaklawn. Bred to be any kind and another step forward puts him in the winner’s circle.

3 – Informative (20-1) Has won just once from nine starts, a weak maiden race at Aqueduct two starts back and would be one of the biggest upsetters in here should her get the money.

4 – Celtic Striker (20-1) Hasn’t come close in his two tries against stakes company but is two for three in his other tries. Has won around two turns but figures to be little more than part of the early pace.

5 – Flap Jack (20-1) Put in a sneaky-good effort when he split the field in the Gotham two back off a six-month layoff but failed to fire in the slop at Oaklawn most recently. Lone win from five starts came in a stakes at Arlington over their synthetic surface.

6 – Ny Traffic (10-1)Has improved in each of his three starts around two turns, all since moving to current barn. Tired to third in slower run division of Risen Star two back before chasing winner throughout in Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. Will have some company on front end.

7 – Necker Island (15-1) Had no chance when given a brutal ride in minor stakes at Gulfstream most recently and gets positive rider switch for return to course where he is undefeated in two starts. Not sure how far he wants to go but hard to indict him off his last. He’ll be the right price if you want to try him again.

8 – Crypto Cash (20-1)Was no match for Charlatan in the Arkansas Derby and would need for more than half the field to no-show this while running the race of his life to even have a puncher’s chance.

9 – Shake Some Action (12-1) Broke his maiden on the turf in his second start then was fortunate to win an allowance/optional claimer on dirt at Fair Grounds two back. Made little noise in La. Derby last out.

10 – Maxfield (5-2) His win in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland when last seen in early October makes him the lone G1 winner in the field. He made up a ton of ground, seemingly in the blink of an eye, to just get up to take his debut over this course before a sustained half-mile rally to win the stakes. If he improves from that effort over seven months ago, this thing is history. Of all the sophomores, the unprecedented shuffling about of the Triple Crown races could benefit him the most.

11 – Attachment Rate (4-1)Rolled to an easy score in the slop at Gulfstream three starts back, his lone win from five starts. Never really threatened when third, beaten just two lengths in Gotham and last out when he was second by less than two lengths in the Unbridled at Gulfstream. Not sure how good he is or how far he wants to go but if the morning line holds, give me Pneumatic at the same price as this guy all day long.

12 – Major Fed (5-1) He’s improved in all four starts, including against-the-bias efforts when second in the Risen Star and most recently in the La. Derby when he was the only horse to make up any ground, closing from last to round out the superfecta. I’m not sold this distance is enough ground for him despite his maiden win at the trip. Not sure what to do with this guy in this spot, which usually means I’ll use him protectively, but I do believe he can be a factor in the Triple Crown races.

Matt Winn
Predictions - If I had $100

Free Pick: $4 exacta box/$2 trifecta box 2-7-10-12

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