Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM

Horse Races Today: Friday's Belmont Park and Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds

Horse Racing Action at TVG!
The feature at Belmont Park Friday is a good one, a field of nine older New York breds going one mile on the main track in the $125,000 Commentator.

Mr. Buff is the 6-5 morning line favorite and is coming off a 20-length win in the state bred Haynesfield at Aqueduct going a mile in his last outing. He won the Jazil two back by a widening five lengths.

He sure looks tough but in both of those outings he took full advantage of a racing strip that was playing to inside speed, so I’m going to take a stab we can beat him. I’ll look to Part On the Back and Build to Suit, who will both offer more bang for the buck.

The feature on Saturday is the second Grade 1 race of the meeting at Belmont Park, the $300,000 Ogden Phipps for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

The race drew a compact field of six led by the 8-5 morning line favorite Ollie’s Candy, who was beaten a head in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park in her last outing.

Her main foes are Royal Delta runner up Golden Award and Point of Honor, who was third in the Apple Blossom.

I will break down the race in tomorrow’s column along with the $100,000 Louisville Handicap (G3) from Churchill Downs which drew a field of 12.

My Best Plays Report for Friday includes my eight strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park today from 1:00 to 2:30 and 4:30 to 6:30 ET on FS2. Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Friday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/12 (1:15)

1a Mrs Frankel 3-1

3 River Tibes 8-5

2 Wink 6-1

8 Alsa 5-1

Analysis: Mrs Frankel debuts for the Casse barn that is 14% winners (with a +ROI) with juvie two-year-old firsters on turf dating back two years. This gal was a $320,000 Ocala purchase with a nice turf pedigree. by Frankel out of a Clodovil mare. Good works on the morning tab and she looks ready to go at first asking.

River Tibes is one of two first timers in here sent out by the Ward barn. We have been fading most of his juvies as they just get hammered and the trainer was off a to a slow start with firsters, but he has two more winners and is now 5 of r18 for the season around the country with two-year-old debut runners. This colt was a $500,000 Keeneland purchase, by War Front out of the stakes winner Liscanna who has dropped five winners including four turf winners led by 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hit It a Bomb ($626,476) who was trained by Aiden O'Brien. A solid work tab at Keeneland and he is the obvious one to beat here.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs Race 6 Analysis - 6/12 (3:42 ET)

8 Carom 8-1

7 Set Piece 9-5

3 Ballagh Rocks 7-5

4 Mick's Star 10-1

Analysis: Carom pressed the early pace, took over and held on sharply to beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out on poly at 4-5 going a mile. His other two wins have come on turf, beating Alw-1 foes at nine furlongs on turf last December at Gulfstream Park in his first start off the claim by the Maker barn. He steps up a condition but looks capable of handling it. The Maker barn is 22% winners moving runners from synth to turf. He should get a good trip as he is quick enough to be on the lead or sit just off it.

Set Piece makes his U.S. debut here off the bench for the Cox barn. He won 3 of 6 overseas and ran third in a Group 3 at Newmarket last April in his third career start. He adds lasix and returns to turf after winning the Hyde Stakes on the all-weather at Kempton in his last outing. Cox is 16% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 9 Analysis - 6/12 (5:36 ET)

8 Pat On the Back 5-1

4 Build to Suit 9-2

7 Mr. Buff 6-5

9 My Boy Tate 12-1

Analysis: Pat On the Back is making his first start since December where he was overmatched in the Cigar Mile (G1) where he faded to finish 10th. He was third in the state bred Empire Classic after a career top effort three back where he beat five foes in the Kelso Handicap (G2) over the main track here at a mile. He is the defending champ, winning this race off a victory at six furlongs in the state bred Affirmed Success in his previous outing. He has worked sharply for his return for the Englehart barn that is 11% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He has won three of his six trips at a mile.

Build to Suit returns off nearly an eight month break here for the Brown barn that is 28% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. The six-year-old won three of his four starts last year, winning the state bred Hudson last October at 6 ½ furlongs. He has won 6 of his 10 career starts, his lone route try at a mile here back in ‘17 where he was third against state bred Alw-1 company. He has run really well in both of his starts off the bench. Five solid works on the morning tab since returning from Florida. He gets five pounds from the favorite and the barn can have them ready to go off the bench.

Mr. Buff is going to be a very short price in this spot. He has won three in a row and four of his last five starts. He won the state bred Haynesfield last out by 20 lengths over four overmatched foes. He did wire the field over a racing strip that was kind to speed. He also caught a speed favoring racing strip two back when winning the Jazil in the slop at Aqueduct. He picks up four pounds here for his return off a 3 ½ month break for the Kimmel barn. He looks imposing and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. There is enough other speed in here he may not have things easy early and may be worth taking a stand against here at such a short price.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #3 Gentle Annie 8-1
R3: #6 Reed Kan 10-1
R8: #5 Fortune’s Fool 10-1
R8: #3 Explorationist 8-1
R9: #9 My Boy Tate 12-1
R10: #3 Sandro the Great 12-1
R10: #4 Reliability 8-1

Good luck today!

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