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Jun 27, 2020

Horse Races Today: Saturday's Belmont Park and Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds

I was not particularly enthusiastic about Friday’s card at Belmont Park as I had a tough time coming up with many live longshots. It still worked out well as we had five winners on top on the nine race card.

In addition, my second choice won three races and my third choice won the other. I was 1 for 4 at Churchill Downs, but we did knock down a pair of exactas.

On to Saturday and between Belmont Park and Churchill Downs we have eight graded stakes on tap including a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge races. I included all of the stakes in today’s Best Plays Report.

The Breeders’ Cup is now just 131 days away, the two-day year end championship being held this year at Keeneland on Nov. 6-7.

The winner of the $200,000 Fleur De Lis Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs today earns a starting spot in the field for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). The race marks the return of Midnight Bisou, who makes her first start since running second to Maximum Security in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February.

She won seven races in a row last year before getting upset in the Distaff, running second to Blue Prize. She is the 3-5 morning line favorite and sure looks tough.

However, Serengeti Empress won the 2019 Kentucky Oaks (G1) over the Churchill Downs main track and could be tough if she is able to shake loose in the early stages.

The $500,000 Stephen Foster (G2) drew a field of eight with the winner headed to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Tom’s d’Etat is the even money favorite, making his first start since winning the Oaklawn Mile back in April which was his 2020 debut. He won three of his seven starts last year including the Clark (G1) under the Twin Spires.

The Al Stall trainee is now seven years old and while he looks tough, a colt that may end up offering some decent value is Owendale, who is 4-1 on the morning line.

The Brad Cox trainee was second in the Clark last year in his second start against older. He won four times last year including victories in the Oklahoma Derby, Ohio Derby and Lexington, all Grade 3 races.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 12 strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs from 1:00 to 3:00 ET on FS2 and 3:00 to 7:00 ET on FS1. The Breeders’ Cup Challenge races will be televised from 5:00 to 6:00 ET on NBC. And even NBCSN gets into the action today from 6:00 to 8:00 ET. In addition, you can stream the action using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/27 (1:15 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 Clm $40,000N2L (1:15 ET)

2 Sun Summers 8-5

1 Minit Maus 10-1

5 Petalite 10-1

6 Peaceful Feeling 3-1


Analysis: Sun Summers
makes her second start off the bench here after the filly stalked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth place finish last out against state bred Alw-1 optional claimers over good ground at Gulfstream Park. She was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths and looks well spotted here in for a $40,000 tag facing non-winners of two. The Cibelli barn is 20% winners with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff. She was a game second two back over the grass here against $50,000 starter allowance foes. If she runs back to that effort here she will be tough to beat as the favorite.

Minit Maus chased the early pace, took over the lead heading for home and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish at this level last out. It was his first go off a four-month break and she bounced back after getting drilled by double digit lengths in four of her previous five outings. She is light with the capable bug who has not gotten many live mounts at the meeting. Worth tossing in the mix here if she goes off near her 10-1 morning line.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs Race 8 Analysis - 6/27 (4:43 p.m. ET)

CD Race 8 The Bashford Manor G3 (4:43 ET)

3 Gatsby 4-1

6 Cazadero 8-5

2 Hulen 5-1

7 County Final 6-1


Analysis: Gatsby
broke his maiden back in April at Gulfstream Park at 4 1/2 furlongs, overcoming getting steadied while down along the inside, angled out and finished gamely for the win. The third-place finisher came back to graduate in his next outing and two others have come back to run well in runner up finishes. No Beyer fig but the BRIS stacks up as the second highest last out number. With higher profile barns in here this guy may end up getting overlooked.

Cazadero is one of two in the sent out by Asmussen. This colt was a good looking maiden winner, earning the top last out number with an 8 3/4 length win here going five furlongs. The barn's juvies have been firing, winning with 9 of 18 two-year-old races with five of those wins coming here. He is out of the stakes winner Wild Gams ($1.1 million) who has dropped five other winners, including stakes winner Mt. Brave ($157,857) and stakes placed Almost Famous ($180,688).

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 9 Analysis - 6/27 (5:36 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 9 The True North G2 (5:36 ET)

1 Diamond King 5-1

7 Promises Fulfilled 7-5

8 Firenze Fire 2-1

3 Wicked Trick 10-1


Analysis: Diamond King
cuts back from a mile where he added to finish seventh in the Blame at Churchill Downs off a 2 1/2-month break. The five-year-old dueled for the early lead after bobbling coming out of the gate and had nothing left in the stretch. He did catch a racing strip that as playing to outside stalkers and closers that day. He won the Stymie at the Big A two back going a one turn mile. He is quick enough to handle the cut back to 6 1/2 panels. The Servis barn is 22% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. This guy seldom runs a bad one and is going to be a fair price in this spot.

Promises Fulfilled makes his first start since last October where he set the early fractions and weakened to finish sixth in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland. He earned a career top three back over the main track here at seven furlongs winning the John A. Nerud (G2) in gate to wire fashion. He has worked sharply in the mornings for his return for the Romans barn that is 12% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He will be tough in this spot but is going to end up a light price.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #1 Minit Maus 10-1
R1: #5 Petalite 10-1
R6: #4 Count Down 10-1
R6: #8 North Carolina 8-1
R9: #3 Wicked Trick 10-1
R10: 31 Beau Recall 10-1

Good luck today!

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