Friday's Picks from Belmont Park
July 2, 2020
By Mike Dempsey
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The holiday weekend is here and while firework displays around the country have mostly been cancelled, we have plenty of horse racing action to keep us busy.
The feature on Friday at Belmont Park is the $80,000 License Fee with a field of eight fillies and mares going six furlongs on the inner turf course.
The Christophe Clement trained Dalika is the 5-2 morning line favorite and is coming off a sharp win at Churchill Downs in her last outing on May 21.
We have a big weekend of racing coming up with five graded stakes at Belmont Park including the Metropolitan Mile (G1), which is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
As you can see below I am going to look for a bit more value with Getmotherarose, who is better than she showed in her last outing where she was beaten 25 lengths in the Intercontinental (G3), a much tougher field than she faces this afternoon.
Coming up on Saturday at Belmont Park we have five graded stakes featuring the $500,000 Metropolitan Mile Handicap (G1) which is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) this November at Keeneland.
A field of eight will line up led by the Bob Baffert trained McKinzie (2-1) who is coming off a victory in the Triple Bend (G2) at Santa Anita on June 7. It was his first start since tossing in a dud in the Saudi Cup (G1) back in February where he was a well beaten 11th. He ran second in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Among his foes are Carter Handicap (G1) winner Vekoma (5-2) and last year’s Travers (G1) winner Code of Honor (3-1).
Also, on the card is the $400,000 Manhattan (G1) with Instilled Regard the 2-1 morning line favorite. The Chad Brown trainee is coming off a victory in the Ft. Marcy (G2) in his last outing.
We will also venture out to the west coast for the $150,000 Los Alamitos Derby (G3) which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race with 20-8-4-2 points up for grabs to the top four finishers.
Baffert sends out a pair of runners. Thousand Words is a two-time graded stakes winner but who has run terrible in his last two starts. Uncle Chuck steps up with the big boys after a seven-length maiden score in his debut at Santa Anita on June 12. The race drew just five runners so it is not exactly a good betting race.
You can catch the action from Belmont Park on Friday from 1:00 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Friday click here.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 7/3 (1:15 p.m. ET)
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:15 ET)
#3 Winfromwithin 8-5
#5 Beautiful Farewell 5-1
#2 Garoppolo 6-1
#1 Indoctrinate 3-1
Analysis: Winfromwithin is a $100,000 Keeneland purchase making his debut for the Pletcher barn that is 22% winners with first timers. This season the trainer has hit with 4 of 7 juvie firsters. The colt is by Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare. The colt has been working well in the mornings including a good gate drill on June 13 over the main track here. The colt looks ready to go and the barn's two-year-olds have been running well.
Beautiful Farewell debuts for the Stidham barn that is 12% winners with firsters and has won with 1 of 2 juvie firsters this season. The filly is by Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare that has dropped one runner, 2 for 14 Positive Phil ($53,450). A solid looking work tab at Fair Hill should have this guy ready to go.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
Belmont Park Race 9 Analysis - 7/3 (5:36 p.m. ET)
BEL Race 9 The License Fee (5:36 ET)
#3 Getmotherarose 6-1
#8 Dalika 5-2
#6 Escapade 9-2
#5 Souper Escape 12-1
Analysis: Getmotherarose was outrun last out in the Intercontinental over yielding ground which was won by Newspaperofrecord who ran them off their feet and then came back to win the Just a Game (G1) in her next outing. Our top pick cuts back to her best distance while dropping out of graded stakes company. She has won 4 of 7 at six furlongs on turf. She won the Honey Fox (G3) three back at a mile at Gulfstream Park. She figures to bounce back with a much better effort and will be a fair price in this spot.
Dalikacame off a five-month break with a sharp effort beating Alw-2 optional claimers at Churchill Downs going 5 1/2 furlongs. She came with a good late rally and drew away to win by two lengths with plenty left in the tank. The runner up Mentality came back to win the state bred Hessonite here on June 26. She ran second in a cope of stakes last year going long, in the restricted Riskaverse at the Spa and a game second in the Mrs Revere (G2) at Churchill Downs on yielding footing last November. She looks as if she is sitting on a big one here.
Escapademakes her first start since February where she prompted the early pace and weakened late to finish fifth beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Lightning City at Tampa Bay Downs going five furlongs. Four have exited that race to run back and three have won including the winner Jean Elizabeth, who won the Whimsical (G3) at Woodbine on June 21. The Thomas barn is 31% winner with runners coming back off a 61-180-day break. Her lone trip at six furlongs on turf came here in the maiden ranks back in '17 where she ran second. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and picks up Castellano.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R4: #4 Jen’s Battle 10-1
R4: #1 Dancingwthdaffodls 8-1
R5: 31 Reed Kan 8-1
R6: #1 Overjoyed 10-1
R6: #4 Vigilantes Way 8-1
R7: #9 Pure Bode 8-1
R9: #5 Souper Escape 12-1
R10: #10 Determined One 10-1
Good luck today!
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!
Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.
Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.
While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.
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