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Horse Racing

Friday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
We hit day #3 of the five-day Keeneland meeting this afternoon and we have a pair of graded stakes on tap, the first two of 10 over the next three days of racing at the Lexington, Kentucky track.
 
The seventh race is the $100,000 Beaumont (G3) for three-year-old fillies, the first graded stakes of the abbreviated meet. A field of six will line up to go seven furlongs on the main track.
 
I landed on Four Graces, who appears to have a decent shot of beating the 7-5 morning line favorite Speech. The Ian Wilkes trainee wired the field in the Dogwood (G3) at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs in her last outing.
 
Speech is shipping in from the west coast for trainer Michael McCarthy. She is cutting back from a route where she ran second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) in her last outing.
 
The eighth race is the $300,000 Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) which drew a field of 10 that will go one mile on the turf.
 
Trainer Chad Brown will send out the two likely favorites. Brown has won just about every graded stake on turf in the U.S. but has not won the Maker’s Mark Mile.
 
He will saddle the 9-5 morning line favorite Raging Bull, who won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) in his last start at Santa Anita. Brown’s Without Prole ran third in that race but appears to have a legitimate shot of turning the tables on his stablemate.
 
Belmont Park has a solid 10-race card this afternoon, but the $80,000 Gold Fever is not one of the better wagering races. The Tom Amoss trained Long Weekend is the 1-2 betting favorite and is going to be tough to beat. He won the Bachelor at Oaklawn Park in his last start, his third win in a row.
 
We have a huge day coming up on Saturday at Keeneland with three Grade 1 races along with the Grade 2 $600,000 Toyota Blue Grass, which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.
 
You can catch the action from Belmont Park from 1:00 to 6:30 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action from Keeneland on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
Purchase Friday’s Reports:
Belmont Park
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Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, Keeneland this week and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Race 1 Analysis - 7/10 (1:15 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:15 ET)
#2 Pitaman   5-2
#6 King of Miami   1-1
#5 Blame the Booze   9-2
#4 Scarlett Sky   4-1
 
Analysis: Pitaman debuts for the Motion barn that is 8% winners with first time starters. This colt is by Pioneerof the Nile out of the turf stakes winner Pitamakan ($97,043) who has dropped six foals to race, all winners including three turf winners, top earner stakes winner Funny Kid ($399,111). The colt is up against not one but two Ward runners in here, but he has been working well at Fair Hill and may be able to get the job done here.
 
King of Miami is by American Pharoah out of an Afleet Alex mare, her first foal to race. The colt has worked sharply at Keeneland for Ward who has hit with 9 of his 30 juvenile first time starters this season (with a +ROI). He looks quick than his stalemate although his price will be much lower.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Race 6 Analysis - 7/10 (3:59 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:59 ET)
#4 Robin Sparkles   8-1
#7 Vivazano   4-1
#10 Jewel of Arabia   2-1
#9 Voice of Spring   5-2
 
Analysis: Robin Sparkles is a $30,000 Spa purchase making her debut for the Brown barn that is 10% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The filly has been working quickly in the mornings over the training track and a breeze here. She is by Elusive Quality out of a Dehere mare that has dropped two foals to race, both winners. Ortiz takes the call and she may end up getting overlooked on the tote here.
 
Vivazano set the early fractions while down along a deep rail and battle don gamely until late, checking in third while beaten 2 1/4 lengths at 11-1. The $100,000 Spa purchase is the first foal tor ace out of a Malibu Moon mare. She is quick and is bred to handle a wet track which we may see today. She should move forward off a solid debut effort. 
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

Keeneland Race 7 Analysis - 7/10 (4:24 p.m. ET)

KEE Race 7 The Beaumont G3 (4:24 ET)
#3 Four Graces   3-1
#2 Speech   7-5
#4 Wicked Whisper   3-1
#6 Turtle Trax   12-1
 
Analysis: Four Graces dueled for the early lead and drew away late to win the Dogwood (G3) last out going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs in her stakes debut She did it over a racing strip that was kind to outside stalkers and closers that day. The Wilkes trainee broke her maiden in her debut at seven furlongs for a barn that early wins first out. She is a perfect 3 for 3 at today's distance and she looks capable of moving forward off her last effort. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and should have a jump on the chalk here when they turn for home. She is bred to handle a wet track if we get some rain.
 
Speech tracked the early pace and could not get to Swiss Skydiver last out in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) last out going a route of ground. That foe is going to take on the boys in Saturday's Blue Grass (G2) here. She broke her maiden going six furlongs and after a runner up finish against Alw-1 optional claimers going six furlongs she has run second in three tries going two turns. She cuts back to a sprint here for McCarthy and she popped a bullet work on July 5. She has enough tactical speed to handle the cut back to seven furlongs.

Live Longshots

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #8 War Stroll   8-1
R6: #4 Robin Sparkles   8-1
R7: #11 Spring Drama   8-1
R8: #4 Foolish Ghost   8-1
R8: #5 Blugrascat’s Smile   8-1
R9: #4 Listentoyourheart   10-1
R10: #10 Adorable Maya   8-1
R10: #12 Big Red Girl   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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