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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

Sunday's Picks from Saratoga and Del Mar

After a stakes rich Saturday, we have one stake on the betting menu at Saratoga and a pair at Del Mar including a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race.

The $100,000 Birdstone at Saratoga drew a field of seven that will travel the marathon distance of 1 ¾ miles on the main track. I am not really a fan of these marathon dirt races as we see so few of them, so it likely will be a small wager for me although the race is part of the late Pick 5.

Moretti is the 8-5 morning line favorite and is coming off a runner up finish in the Suburban (G2) going 1 ¼ miles. Standard Deviation may end up offering more value. He goes turf to dirt for trainer Graham Motion who is looking to get off the duck at the Spa where he is 0 for 10.

At Del Mar we have the $100,000 Graduation, which comes early on the card as the third race. As you can see below, I landed on Good With People, a well bred colt sent out by trainer Peter Miller.

The 10th race on the card is the $250,000 Clement Hirsch (G1) for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The winner stamps a ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

A field of six line up led by the 2-1 morning line favorite Hard Not to Like, who ran second in the Santa Maria (G2) to Fighting Mad (4-1) in her last outing.

She bobbled coming out of the gate and was way last in the field of five. She stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish in the runner up spot, unable to get to the gate to wire winner Fighting Mad, who was taking full advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed. She has a good shot of turning the tables.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Saratoga and Del Mar

To purchase my Saratoga and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .
 
You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 4:00 ET on FS2, then FS1 has the action from 4:00 ET to 6:30 ET and 6:00 to 7:30 ET. In addition, you can stream the action by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

Saratoga Race 1 Analysis
8/2 (1:10 p.m. ET) 

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:10 ET)

4 Uyuni 4-1

2 Feeling Pretty 6-1

7 Delaware Destiny 9-5

3 Mrs Frankel 5-2


Analysis: Uyuni
was bumped coming out of the gate in her debut, stalked the early pace and weakened to finish forth, sent off at 5-2 in a field of 10 at Gulfstream Park going five furlongs on turf. She stretches out to a route here for the Ward barn and she is bred to go long. She is by Uncle Mo out of the stakes winner Pachattack ($788,018) who has dropped four other foals to race with three winners including two turf winners. The barn has been very live with juveniles this season as is the norm and is 17% winners moving runners from sprint to route with a low ROI of just $0.83. We have caught a few fair prices on Ward juveniles recently and hoping we catch at least 5-2 here.

Feeling Pretty debuts for the Kimmel barn that has won with just one of his last 30 first timers. The barn last won with a first timer here at the Spa in '18 and Rosario was aboard. Note the jock is not riding the Clement first timer. This gal was a $95,000 Ocala purchase, by Temple City out of the stakes winner Honorable Lady ($157,817) this her first foal to race. The Clement trainee is likely to get over bet as hot as the barn has been and this gal may end up getting overlooked.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

Saratoga Race 8 Analysis
8/2 (5:14 p.m. ET) 

SAR Race 8 Alw $64,000N1X (5:14 ET)

8 Harris Bay 5-1

11 Fort Worth 8-5

3 Riken 6-1

6 Gandy Dancing 4-1


Analysis: Harris Bay
makes his first start since January where the colt stalked the early pace and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the state bred Rego Park. The third-place finisher Dream Bigger won the state bred Damon Runyon by 7 3/4 lengths in his next start. This guy put in a bullet breeze on July 20 over the main track here for his return. The Kimmel barn is 13% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff and the trainer has picked up two wins form his first 10 starters at the meeting. He looks well spotted for his return dropping into the Alw-1 state bred ranks.

Fort Worth makes his first start since last April where he broke his maiden in his second career start and first against state breds. He tracked the early pace and drew clear to win by 6 3/4 lengths going a mile. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of that race to graduate next out. The colt has been working steadily for his return for Pletcher who 30% winners is (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. Looks like a good spot for his return.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

Del Mar Race 3 Analysis
8/2 (3:00 p.m. PT) 

DMR Race 3 The Graduation (3:00 PT)

1 Good With People 3-1

3 Touchdown Brown 2-1

2 Jazz Hands 5-1

4 None Above the Law 15-1


Analysis: Good With People
is one of two in here sent out by the Miller barn. The colt took the field gate to wire to break his maiden here on July 12, opening up a big lead in the stretch and winning by 3 1/4 lengths. The colt is by Curlin out of the stakes winner gator Prowl ($106,000) who has dropped four other winners and three are stakes winners, top earner Fast Gator ($378,065). The colt earned solid early and mid pace numbers and the barn does good work with juveniles. He looks very capable of running faster than they did in his debut.

Touchdown Brown tracked the early pace and finished gamely to break his maiden in his debut at Santa Anita going 4 1/2 furlongs. He was well backed, sent off as the favorite in a seven horse field. He earned the top last out Beyer and has come back with quick works over the main track here including a bullet drill on July 25 out of the gate. He looks as if he still has plenty of upside and was very professional looking in his maiden score.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: 6 Horoscope 8-1
R5: #1a Bad Guy 12-1

Good luck today!

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