Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
2020 Ellis Park Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds
Runhappy Ellis Park Derby
Betting Resources and Picks
- Date: Sunday, August 9
- Post-Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
- TV Coverage: TVG
- Race: 10
- Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
- Qualification: Three-year-olds
- Track: Ellis Park
- Location: Henderson, Kentucky
1 – Trident Hit (30/1)
Adds blinkers for just third career start having finished second in an entry level allowance/optional claimer at Indiana Grand most recently. Maiden win came in debut at seven furlongs. Huge step up in class.
2 – Anneau d’Or (12/1)
Scratched out of Shared Belief last Saturday at Del mar for this spot. Not sure it matters much as he just hasn’t seemed to take the step forward from two to three. Fourth in Santa Anita Derby last out was light years better than his prior two tries this year but he’s still a reach.
3 – Sprawl (15/1)
Looked good when stretching out to win an entry level allowance at Churchill two back, which made him perfect in two tries around two turns before getting a questionable ride in the Ohio Derby. Gets a rider switch to the more patient Leparoux and is an upset factor.
4 – Art Collector (4-5)
Traditionally, we see a late blooming sophomore rattle cages in the second half of the year. It looks like he is playing that role in this unusual season, one that allows him to be a force in the Kentucky Derby. He has turned into a monster since stretching out in distance and his versatility that has seen him lead fields from the start or come from off the pace makes him that much more dangerous. Either of his last two efforts destroys this bunch. Well deserved, odds on favorite should prove tough to beat.
5 – Necker Island (15/1)
Lost almost all chance yet still grabbed the show-dough after stumbling at start of Indiana Derby in his first start off the $100K claim. I’ve tried him a few times this year and he just keeps running the same race while not improving enough to compete with these. Maybe one of these days they’ll allow him to use his early speed. Regardless of style, water is probably too deep here.
6 – Little Menace (20/1)
Has won half of his six starts, including a minor stakes at Lone Star Park in his first two turn try last out where he went gate-to-wire. Has been training steadily for this and should be able to work out a decent trip from a bit off the pace. Big price could sneak into the exotics.
7 – Truculent (30/1)
Blinkers go back on for his return to dirt and second start in over seven months. Barn won their first Grade 1 last weekend with Vexatious in the Personal Ensign. Tough to make a case for him.
8 – Rowdy Yates (20/1)
Five-time winner contested pace in Ohio Derby before finishing fourth in his first start since finishing fourth in a race on the Saudi Cup undercard. Won the Ellis Park Juvenile in lone start over course last year. Prefer others in here.
9 – Dean Martini (10/1)
Upset the Ohio Derby at over 14-1 with a gutsy, rail-skimming middle move and career-best effort in his second start off the claim. Hard to imagine her gets another trip like that one. He’s improved throughout the year and another step forward makes him a player, especially for the minor awards.
10 – Attachment Rate (20/1)
Finished well behind the chalk when fifth in the Blue Grass and lone win came going a one-turn mile in the slop at Gulfstream this past winter. I believe this guy will be better on turf.
11 – Winning Impression (20/1)
A winner just one from eight starts, he did get bothered a bit at the start of the Indiana Derby but he did little running after that. Not for me.
12 – Shared Sense (9/2)
Finished well behind the favorite in an allowance/optional claimer two back then roared home to win the Indiana Derby by three, drawing away lengths. If you take away his turf and wet track races, his form is as good as any except Art Collector in here. The problems with him are his post and his price. I’ll use him underneath in exotics defensively.
13 – Rogue Element (30/1)
Maiden in a stakes. Need I say more? On also eligible list so he would need a scratch to draw into the field