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Horse Racing

Sunday’s Picks from Saratoga and Ellis Park

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Tiz the Law left no doubt who the favorite for next month’s Kentucky Derby (G1) would be with a dazzling win in the Travers (G1) yesterday at Saratoga, drawing off to win by 5 ½ lengths.

The Bob Baffert trained Uncle Chuck set the early fractions and looked as if he might be a challenge, but once he was passed, he tired to finish a well beaten seventh.

Caracaro rallied for second at 11-1 to complete a $2 exacta that paid $15.60, giving the colt 60 points and moved him up to 10th in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

Max Player plodded home for third as my top pick, earning 20 points which put him into the Kentucky Derby, the colt now owning 60 points.




Tiz the Law picked up 100 points and will finish on top of the Derby point standings with 372 points, with Authentic second at 200 points.

We have a Derby berth up for grabs this afternoon in the $200,000 Ellis Park Derby. The race is worth 50-20-10-5 points.

Right now the Derby bubble stands at 25 points, and the winner of the race today would move up to at least 12th in the standings.

Art Collector is the 4-5 favorite for the race, and his trip to Louisville is locked in. The colt won the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland in his last outing which earned him 100 points.

The final Road to the Kentucky Derby points race is the Pegasus at Monmouth Park next Saturday. That race is worth just 20-8-4-2 points.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my 10 strongest plays from Saratoga and Ellis Park.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Sunday click here


You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 6:30 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

Saratoga Race 1 Analysis - 8/9 (1:10 p.m. ET)

SAR Race 1 Clm $12,500 (1:10 ET)
#2 Stoney Bennett 8-5
#3 We Should Talk 7-2
#7 Deep Sea 4-1
#5 Malpais 5-1

Analysis: Stoney Bennett set the early fractions and drifted in the stretch, finishing gamely to miss by a length in the mud at Laurel Park in his first start off a 13-month layoff. This guy is perfect in his two starts at the Spa, coming in back to back starts here in '18. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and drops into an easier spot here tagged for $12,500. He looks tough as the favorite to start the day.

We Should Talk makes his first starts since February for the Atras barn. In his last outing for Englehart he took the field gate to wire at Aqueduct going seven furlongs to win for this tag. He was claimed out of that race by owner Michael Dubb and trainer Jason Servis and now land with Atras. The barn is 10% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff not a strong suit for his high % outfit. It is not a real tough looking spot for his return here. He is quick enough to be right tin the mix early.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

Saratoga Race 7 Analysis - 8/9 (4:43 p.m. ET)

SAR Race 7 Clm $40,000N2L (4:43 ET)
#10 Summer Fortune 3-1
#5 Mo Me Mo My 5-2
#4 Aunt Nadine 7-2
#9 Stretchthestory 6-1

Analysis: Summer Fortune returns off a four-month break and tries turf for the first time here for the Englehart barn that I have spent most of the past six months fading. The barn did win another race on yesterday's card. This filly drops into an easier spot here tagged for $40,000 and facing non-winners of two and she should take to turf. She is out of a Wild Rush mare that has dropped six other winners and four have won on turf. Irad takes the call and does not ride much for this trainer but when he does he hits at a 25% clip (with a +ROI).

Mo Me Mo My prompted the early pace and weakened to finish sixth last out against Alw-1 company here off a two-month break. O'Neill takes the hood off here as this gal makes just her third start of the year. She graduated three back last September on turf at Del mar going five furlongs. She looks well spotted dropping in for a tag for the first time here and gets a jock upgrade from Davis to Rosario. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers but with the hood coming off she figures to sit off the pace as she did in her maiden score.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Ellis Park:

Ellis Park Race 9 Analysis - 8/9 (5:40 p.m. ET)

ELP Race 9 The Groupie Doll (4:40 CT)
#12 Street Band 3-1
#9 Dos Vinos 6-1
#1 Lady Apple 4-1
#7 Lady Kate 5-1

Analysis: Street Band has had me on the bandwagon for quite some time. I made her my top pick in the Cotillion (G1) last year at Philly where we were rewarded at $17.40 but we have given most of that back including backing her in the BC Distaff (G1) where she was eighth. She came up the inside with a good late rally to finish fourth last out in the Apple Blossom (G1). She seems to do her best running when she drops back and relaxes and comes with one big run and she would get some pace to run at here. The price today is not going to be great, but she faces easier and just needs Doyle to work out a trip breaking from the outside.

Dos Vinos prompted the early pace and finished gamely to beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out at Keeneland going six furlongs. This is her first route try and she has the pedigree, by Twirling Candy out of a Distorted Humor mare. She makes her third start off the bench and looks as if she still has plenty of upside. The barn is 23% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Looks as if she is going to be a fair price in this spot.

Live Longshots

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R3: #3 Wild Love 8-1
R6: #7 Glass Ceiling 12-1
R8: #6 Forever Poe 8-1


Good luck today!

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