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Horse Racing

Wednesday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
We enter week #5 of the Saratoga meeting, and trainer Todd Pletcher lit it up last week, winning five races and taking over the top spot in the trainer standings.
 
Pletcher has now won 16 races from 49 starters, hitting at a 33% clip and his runners have landed in the money 63% of the time.
 
Christophe Clement, who got off to such a fast start is now in second in the trainer standings with 15 winners from his 56 starters, winning at a 27% clip.
 
Mike Maker continues to have a solid meeting, in third in the standings with 14 winners, winning at a 27% clip. He is one ahead of Chad Brown, who surprisingly is winning at “just” a 19% rate, with 13 winners from 70 starters.
 
Brown led all trainers here last summer winning with 23% of his starters and in 2018 won with 27% of his runners.
 
The jockey race looks as if it is going to go right down the last day of the meeting. Irad Ortiz Jr. has 32 winners, his brother Jose has 31 and Joel Rosario is having a really good meet with 28 winners.
 
Apprentice Luis Cardenas suffered a concussion in a spill and will miss the next few days. I was expecting to see him break out at this meeting and he won a race on opening day, but that has been his only winner from his 65 mounts.
 
You can catch the action from Saratoga from 2:00 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Saratoga Report for Wednesday click here.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the second race (the opener is a jump race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
 
SAR Race 2 OClm $62,500N2X (1:21 ET)
#5 Strike That   5-2
#1 Tiz He the One   6-5
#3 Releasethethunder   7-2
#2 Dinar   6-1
 
Analysis: Strike That stalked the early pace from the rail and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last outing his first trip over the main track here. The effort came off a three-month break for the Diodoro barn that still has not picked up a win at the meeting, going 0 for 16. This guy won twice at Oaklawn Park earlier this year and three back beat Alw-3L pressing the early pace. He stretches out to seven furlongs for the first time here and he figures to be more of a pace factor in this small group. If Cohen sends him he may prove tough to catch.
 
Tiz He the One stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish last out here off a 4 1/2-month break. He was claimed out of the race by the Maker barn that is 16% winners first off the claim. His last four figures fit well in this spot but he may have some catching up to do as they turn for home if our top pick should get the jump on him and will be a better price as well.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
 
SAR Race 9 The Adirondack (5:17 ET)
#2 Make Mischief   9-5
#3 Lilac Lace   6-1
#4 Thoughtfully   2-1
#5 Lucifers Lair    3-1
 
Analysis: Make Mischief set the early fractions and could not go with Dayoutoftheoffice who drew away to win by six lengths in the Schuylerville (G3). The racing strip was kind to outside stalkers and closers that day. The filly graduated two back at Belmont Park going five furlongs, tracking the early pace, then had to steady when shying away from a foe in the stretch. She overcame that and took over the lead late, edging away to win by a half-length at even money in a field of eight. The $285,000 Spa purchase is by Into Mischief out of a Speightstown mare that has dropped four other runners, all winners. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers, and she looks capable of taking their group gate to wire.
 
Lilac Lace came with a good five wide rally to get up and graduate in her debut at Keeneland on turf going 5 ½ furlongs at 19-1. The race has produced one next out winner and the fifth-place finisher Mania came back to run a good second in the Debutante at Ellis Park on Aug. 9. The Quartarolo trainee now shifts to the main track and she handled the dirt at Trackside leading up to her debut. Her pedigree leans more toward dirt, by High Cotton out of a Congrats mare. Castellano picks up the call and among the top three in here this gal may end up offering the best value.
 
Thoughtfully rolled to an 8 ¾ length win in her debut at Churchill Downs going 5 ½ furlongs back in June. Six have come back to run again out of that race with one next out winner. She has worked well over the main track here for Asmussen who has been very live with juvenile this season, winning at a 28% clip this year and is 2 for 11 a this meet with juvies. This gal was a $950,000 purchase, out of a Seeking the Gold mare that has dropped six other winners including stakes winners Giant Payday ($346,549) and Annual Report ($186,587), the latter a Grade 2 winner as a juvenile.
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Saratoga
R3: #5 Snappy Cat   30-1
R5: #2 Break Beat   8-1
R6: #3 Single Verse   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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