Friday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

We have a big day coming up at Saratoga on Saturday which features the $500,000 Alabama (G1) and the $500,000 Saratoga Derby.

Swiss Skydiver is the even-money favorite for the Alabama Stakes and is coming in off a runner up finish against the boys in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland. She earned 40 Derby points and there was some talk about her going in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Her trainer now says she is pointing toward the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but if she runs big tomorrow, we could see her going for the roses.

The Saratoga Derby is for three-year-olds going 1 3/16 miles on turf. It is a talented group of eight led by Hall of Fame (G2) winner Decorated Invader (7-5) and Transylvania (G3) winner Field Pass (6-1). Colonel Liam (7-2) makes his stakes debut after popping a 100 Beyer and deserves a look for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has been hot the last few weeks.

The $150,000 Pegasus at Monmouth Park is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race, offering up 20-8-4-2 points to the top four finishers. It does not appear to have much of an impact on the Derby field.

Pneumatic is the 5-2 morning line favorite and coming off a fourth in the Belmont Stakes (G1). That puts him at #22 on Derby points list.

Perhaps we will venture out of the country tomorrow as Woodbine in Canada is offering up five stakes including the $150,000 Plate Trial along with three graded stakes.

Friday’s feature at Saratoga comes early on the card. The fourth race is the $100,000 Perfect Sting with six going to the post going 1 1/16 miles on turf. I am looking for a price with Chaleur (6-1) who has a shot of taking the field gate to wire.

You can catch the action from Saratoga today from 1:00 to 6:30 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Friday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

Saratoga Race 1 Analysis - 8/14 (1:10 p.m. ET)

SAR Race 1 Md $20,000 (1:10 ET)
#4 Tetrahydro 8-1
#1 Spanish Peaks 2-1
#2 Tesorina 6-1
#7 Ain't None Lucky 5-2

Analysis: Tetrahydro drops back in for a $20,000 tag hereafter fading to finish a well-beaten eighth for a $50,000 tag in the slop at Keeneland last out. Two back off a nine-month layoff for this tag at Churchill Downs she ran well in a runner up finish behind repeat winner Lizzie D, who came back to beat $16,000 non-winners of two at Ellis Park in her next outing. The cut back to a sprint should suit this gal and it looks as if she is going to be a decent price in this spot. She is out of a Giant's Causeway mare that has dropped three winners including stakes winner Donegal Moon ($253,577).

Spanish Peaks pressed the early pace, opened up heading for home, and got nailed by a head last out going a mile on turf. She ran well in her debut on dirt at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs in a runner up finish. Cox is 25% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. She owns the edge in early and mid-pace numbers and could be tough on the lead here. She has worked quickly since her last outing and I like the switch back to the main track.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

Saratoga Race 4 Analysis - 8/14 (2:54 p.m. ET)

SAR Race 4 The Perfect Sting (2:54 ET)
#6 Chaleur 6-1
#1 Cafe Americano 2-1
#7 Secret Message 3-1
#4 Altea 9-5

Analysis: Chaleur makes her third start since landing in the U.S. and first in stakes company here. Last out she tracked the early pace and finished gamely to beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out by a head going a mile. She was forwardly placed in some of her starts overseas and also in her two starts stateside and catches herself here in a race without any early speed. Castellano may be able to shake loose if he sends her. Decent value if she goes off near her 6-1 morning line.

Cafe Americano is one of two in her sent out by the Chad Brown barn. She makes her first start since last fall where she made a mild late rally to finish fourth in the QEII Cup (G1) at Keeneland, beaten three lengths. She came from off the pace to win the Pucker Up (G3) two back at Churchill Downs off the bench. The barn is 29% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. With her coming off the shelf and drawing the rail Irad may want to get her into the mix early which looks like it may be the wide thing to do here.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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