Thursday’s Picks from Belmont

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

We are now less a month away from the Breeders’ Cup, the two-day year end championship taking place at Keeneland on Nov. 6-7 with no fans in attendance.

Swiss Skydiver beat the boys in the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico last Saturday and now the decision will be made whether she returns to face the ladies in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) or takes on older males in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

It seems her trainer Ken McPeek seems optimistic she could be a factor in the Classic while her owner seems to be leaning toward the Distaff.

In the Distaff she would likely be the second choice in the betting behind Monomoy Girl.

She has taken on the boys twice, first her second to Art Collector in the Toyota Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland and then her Preakness win. However, both of those wins came against straight three-year-olds and in the Classic she would have to face older runners including Improbable, Maximum Security and Tom’s d’Etat.

She would also face off with Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law and Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic, who was then second in the Preakness.

Improbable and Tiz the Law are the early favorites for the Classic, but after that it is pretty wide open and Swiss Skydiver could end up the third or fourth choice in the Classic.

She would be seeking to become just the second filly or mare to win the Classic. Zenyatta beat the boys in 2009 and ran second to Blame in 2010.

If you plan on getting a futures wager in on the filly, I would wait a few days. If I had to guess now, I would say McPeek may get his way and we could see her in the Classic.

We have the final five Breeders’ Cup Challenge races on the calendar coming up at Belmont Park this weekend.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park today from 12:30 to 6:00 ET on FS2.  In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Thursday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start: 

BELMONT PARK RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:50 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #3 Risk Profile   9-5
• #2 Vermont Billy   2-1
• #1 Twelfth Man / 1a Uncle Moonlight   5-2
• #4 Determined Fury   6-1               

Analysis: Risk Profile is based at Monmouth Park and was the beaten chalk last out going a mile here off a 11-month layoff. The gelding set the early fractions and weakened to fish third, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. His debut came at Keeneland last fall where he checked din fifth at 9-2. He put in two quick works in New Jersey since his return race and catches a small field here on the cut back to six furlongs. The barn is 20% winners moving runners from route to sprint. He was a $260,000 Keeneland purchase, the first foal to race out of a Trippi mare. The cut back should suit him.

Vermont Billy is a $475,000 purchase making his debut for the Weaver barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. He is by Uncle Mo out of an Unbridled's Song mare that has dropped two foals to race, both winners, top earner Grade 1 stakes winner Leofric ($951,040). Decent works on the morning tab and Irad takes the call.  

BELMONT PARK RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:12 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Clm $35,000N3L

• #11 Light the Posse    15-1
• #12 Smile Bryan   5-2
• #7 Power Up Paynter   4-1
• #9 Cavaradossi   8-1

Analysis: Light the Posse makes his first start since last December for the Baker barn that is 25% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. This guy has just two starts on turf in his career, beating state bred Alw-1 company in his turf debut last summer at the Spa at 5 1/2 furlongs. His other trip came a giant state bred Alw-2 foes where he checked in seventh after a wide trip. He looks well spotted here tagged for $35,000 and facing non-winners of three and is going to get overlooked in this spot.

Smile Bryan drops in for a tag after a sixth last out as the beaten favorite at Kentucky Downs against Alw-1 foes. Two back at Delaware Park going a mile he made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot versus Alw-1 foes. The gelding won over the grass here back in June at a mile over $50,000 starter allowance company. The cut back to six furlongs here should not be a problem as he has run well sprinting on both dirt and turf. The logical one to beat here for the Motion barn. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Belmont Park

• R2: #5 Perfect Banker   10-1
• R3: #1 Can’thelpbelieving   8-1
• R4: #7 On Deck   12-1
• R5: #7 Freaky Styley   8-1
• R6: #9 High Tide   8-1
• R7: #11 Light the Posse   15-1
• R7: #9 Cavaradossi   8-1
• R9: #1 Lovely Queen   8-1
• R10: #5 Dressy   10-1
• R10: #11 Sinashack   8-1 

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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