Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Five Breeders’ Cup races are in the books and we have nine more on Saturday with a bonus of a $266,790 Pick 6 carryover after no horseplayers solved the wager on Friday.

The Pick 6 started with Rocketry winning the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance as my top pick returning $25.20. My tickets blew a tire after Fire At Will pulled off the upset to the tune of $62.40 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

The day ended with heavy favorite Jackie’s Warrior failing to fire in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), with Essential Quality pulling of the mild upset and returning $9.40.

The Pick 6 on Saturday starts with the seventh race which is the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). The race drew a full field of 14 and is one of the toughest races on the card.

I don’t see any of the morning line favorites winning in the Pick 6 sequence, which could lead to a large payoff.

The final leg is the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) which looks like a match up between Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law and the Bob Baffert trio of Improbable, Maximum Security and Authentic.

One of the most anticipated showdowns of the day comes in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) where we have 2018 winner Monomoy Girl facing off with Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Swiss Skydiver.

That duo figures to take much of the wagering action but I am going to take a look at Valiance and include her on my Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets.

She exits a win in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, a prep race that has produced 10 Distaff winners. Her trainer Todd Pletcher won his 5000^th career race yesterday and she will come into the race flying under the radar.

You can catch the action from Aqueduct today from 10:30 to 4:30 ET on FS2.  The Breeders’ Cup races will be televised on the NBC Sports Network from 12:00 to 2:30 ET and then switches to NBC from 2:30 to 6:00. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Keeneland.

To purchase my Aqueduct, Best Plays and Breeders’ Cup Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my Breeders’ Cup Report.

Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start: 

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (10:30 A.M. ET)

Race 1 Alw $50,000s

• #6 Cobble Hill   6-1
• #4 Grit and Glory   3-1
• #1 Unrelenting Force   2-1
• #2 Striking Speed   3-1

Analysis: Cobble Hill tracked the early pace while saving ground while down along a deep rail and weakened in the stretch to finish third against $50,000 non-winners of three. The runner up Allured came back to beat $20,000 non-winners of three in his next outing on Oct. 29 at Belmont Park. He returns with blinkers added and stretches out to a mile for the RRod barn that is 17% winners (with a +ROI) when adding the hood for the first time. He is capable of better than he showed last out.

Grit and Glory stalked the early pace, got caught behind a wall of runners and finished up well when angled to the far outside in a runner up finish. The winner Kumar came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next start and the third-place finisher Saratoga Pal beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in his next outing on Oct. 22. A clean trip makes this guy a threat here and he should see enough pace in front of him. 

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:03 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Stewart Manor

• #7 Magisterium   2-1
• #1 Honey Pants   7-2
• #3 Illegal Smile   4-1
• #8 Spirited Beauty   15-1

Analysis: Magisterium made her U.S. debut in the Matron (G3) last out where she trailed early and came with a god late run to finish third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot. She won twice overseas including an allowance race at Newcastle on the all-weather and she was beaten just a neck in a handicap stakes at Newmarket in August. She figures to move forward off her last effort and if our second and third choices get caught up in an early pace tussle this gal is going to pick up the pieces.

Honey Pants took the field gate to wire to break her maiden in her first go on turf and second career start. She drew off to win by four lengths with a little something left in the tank. She draws the rail which looks like an advantage here and she looks capable of moving forward for Clement who may have this exacta wrapped up with his duo. 

KEENELAND RACE 11 ANALYSIS (4:33 P.M. ET)

Race 11 The Breeders' Cup Turf G1

• #3 Tarnawa   6-1
• #2 Magical   5-2
• #9 Channel Maker   5-1
• #10 Mogul   4-1

Analysis: Tarnawa comes in for the Dermot Weld barn having won five of his last six starts, taking the Prix de l'Opera (G1) last out in a game effort over Alpine Star at 1 1/4 miles. She won the Prix Vermeille (G1) two back at today's 1 1/2 miles, her third win in five trips at the distance. She adds lasix and comes in here a bit under the radar as the O'Brien duo figure to take most of the action. She is 6-1 on the morning line but is taking a little money overseas at 3-1 at most of the shops. Weld is 0 for 16 with Breeders' Cup starters with a third in the Mile in 1992 the best finish. The ladies have won this race twice in the last five years, both Euro invaders. Decent value if we catch most of her 6-1 morning line.

Magical could give the ladies the exacta here. She was second in this race in 2018 behind the great Enable, coming up just 3/4 of a length shy of beating her. She was third last out int eh Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot over ground that might have been a bit more giving than she likes. She did not have a clear lane and finished up well when angled out in the stretch. She won the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) two back at 1 1/4 miles. She is just 1 for 5 at this distance but has run pretty well, landing in the exacta in three of those trips. O'Brien has won this race five times including in '13,'15 and '16. Moore had his choice between the two O'Brien runners and landed on this gal.

Channel Maker appears to be the best shot for the home team. The gelding has run back to back matching career tops winning the Sword Dancer (G1) and then the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) in his last outing, both at 1 1/2 miles. He faded to finish 12ht in this race last year at 22-1 after a second in the Joe Hirsch. Mott has this six-year-old at the top of his game right now. There is not a ton of early pace in here and it is rare to see a runner win this racer gate to wire but it has happened twice recently, in '16 with Highland Reel and '12 with Little Mike. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R3: #4 Graceful Princess   15-1
• R4: #6 Maketo   15-1R6: #10 Twelve Toes   8-1
• R6: #8 Chilly Choos   10-1
• R7: #4 Brickyard   10-1
• R7: #12 Fusilli   10-1
• R8: #8 Spirited Beauty   15-1 

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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