Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM
Sunday's Picks from Aqueduct
The Breeders’ Cup ended in a bit of an unsatisfying way after my top pick in the Classic Tiz the Law got pinned down along the rail where he does not like to be and then did not have enough punch left in the stretch.
He was pinned down by jockey Luis Saez aboard Maximum Security while his stablemate Authentic went on to victory for trainer Bob Baffert.
I dropped a few expletives as Baffert has worn out his welcome in my orbit after a spate of drug positives over the past two years. Most are for overages of legal medications, his claim often that his horses are getting contaminated by grooms.
We went into the Classic with some momentum after Tarnawa came with a breathtaking late rally to win the Turf as my top pick. She paid $11.40 and my second choice Magical combined for a $36.20 exacta. My third choice Channel Maker set the early fractions and held on for third giving us the trifecta cold which returned $142.20 for $1.
The previous race was the Distaff where my top pick Valiance came with a good late run and almost pulled off the upset at 14-1. My second choice Monomoy Girl got the job done and the duo combined for a solid $42.60 exacta.
We had Knicks Go on top in the Dirt Mile paying $5.60. My second choice Audaraya won the Filly & Mare Turf in the following race paying $37.20.
Two bombs blew up my Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. I failed to use Whitmore in the Sprint who paid $38.00. And I doubt many had Order of Australia in the Mile who paid $148.40 to win after sneaking in off the also-eligible list.
It is back to the grind today at Aqueduct with a good 10 race betting card. The feature this afternoon is the $100,000 Nashua (G3) for two-year-olds going one mile on the main track.
You can catch the action from Aqueduct today from 11:30 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .
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Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (11:50 A.M. ET)
Race 1 Md Sp Wt
- #7 Excellorator 5-2
- #1 Maclyrical 9-2
- #4 Never Surprised 7-2
- #2 Venerable 6-1
Analysis: Excellorator invades from Canada where he made three starts over the fake stuff and has a third in his debut followed by a pair of runner up finishes, running into repeat winners in two of those three starts. He lands with the underrated Miceli barn that is 19% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. The colt is by Orb out of the dirt stakes winner Red Velvet ($132,280) who has dropped one other foal to race, Red Hot Dame ($41,293) who broke her maiden on turf. She may appreciate the surface switch and this group does not look as tough as she was facing north of the border.
Maclyrical debuts for the Abreu barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The colt is by Maclean's Music out of a Malibu Moon mare, her first foal to race. The works are not jumping off the page but the former Chad Brown assistant usually has them ready to go at first asking.
AQUEDUCT RACE 9 ANALYSIS (3:47 P.M. ET)
Race 9 The Nashua G3
- #2 Nova Rags 2-1
- #1 Ten for Ten 6-5
- #5 Isolate 5-2
- #4 Pickin' Time 9-2
Analysis: Nova Rags bobbled coming out of the gate in his debut, tracked the early pace and came with a good late rally to get up late and break his maiden by 3/4 of a length at 9-1 for the Mott barn. The colt should get better with more ground. He is by Union Rags out of the stakes winner Wishful Splendor ($271,125) who has dropped eight hoer winners including G2 winner Juanita ($509,005).
Ten for Ten took the field gate to wire to break his maiden last out in the slop going a route of ground for the Shug barn. The colt did take advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. With four of these stretching out from sprints he may not have it as easy up front as he did last out in the slop but he does look like he still has plenty of upside. He was a $410,000 Keeneland purchase, out of an Eskendereya mare that ash dropped one other foal to race, 0 for 1 Summer Ride. The main knock is going to be the light price.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
- R3: #7 Queendom 10-1
- R4: #5 Bellagio 10-1
- R4: #3 Ascending Moon 20-1
- R5: #9 Movie Score 8-1
- R8: #1 Mills 12-1
- R8: #2 Shalako 8-1
- R10: #12 The Promised Road 10-1
- R10: #6 Kreesa La Wrote 8-1
Good luck today!