Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

After two days of sloppy conditions and no turf races at Aqueduct the weather is on the improve and we have a good betting card on tap on Saturday afternoon.

We have a pair of stakes starting with the $100,000 Notebook, a six-furlong sprint on the main track for New York bred two-year-olds.

A field of seven line up led by the Mike Maker trained Blue Gator, the 2-1 morning line favorite. The colt won the state bred Breeders’ Futurity at Finger Lakes on Oct. 26 in his last outing in the slop.

There are a couple of foes that are going to end up offering more value including Market Alert (10-1). The James Ryerson trainee may be able to turn the tables after a fourth in the state bred Funny Cide in his last outing.

The co-feature is the $100,000 Artie Schiller for three-year-olds and upward going a mile on the inner turf course. With rain falling the past couple of days we likely will see less than firm conditions.

The Christophe Clement trained Therapist is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The gelding has won 8 of his 20 career starts on turf but has lost three in a row.

Trainer Chad Brown sends out my top pick Valid Point (6-1) who should end up a fair price. His recent form is not good, but he won the Secretariat (G1) at Arlington Park last summer and I am hoping Brown can get him back on track in this spot.

The feature at Churchill Downs is the $200,000 Mrs. Revere (G2) which drew a field of seven three-year-old fillies that will go 1 1/16 miles on turf.

The top four finishers of the Valley View (G3) at Keeneland square off again but as you can see below I am looking elsewhere with Hendy Woods (3-1) who exits a sixth place finish versus tougher in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) at Keeneland over good ground.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.

You can catch the action from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs today from 11:30 to 2:30 ET on FS2.  In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

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Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start: 

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (11:50 A.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #6 Flintshire's Rock   8-1
• #9 Martinez   2-1
• #11 Sonic Speed   7-2
• #2 Halpert   9-2

Analysis: Flintshire's Rock was sent off at 7-1 in his debut going six furlongs at Belmont park where the colt tracked the early pace and then weakened in the stretch to finish sixth, beaten 5 1/4 lengths. The colt is sent out by the Clement barn that is 18% winners with second out maidens. The colt is by Flintshire out of a Marquetry mare that has dropped seven winners with six turf winners. Irad sticks and this guy should show more here in his second career outing.

Martinez made a good late run to finish third last out in his third career start for the Shug barn. He was cutting back to a sprint after a fourth two back going long. In his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs three back he made a mild late run to finish third. He is out of a Behrens mare that has dropped three dirt winners bit no turf winners to date. He looks headed in the right direction and does not need to move forward all that much off his last outing to pick up his diploma here.  

AQUEDUCT RACE 9 ANALYSIS (3:47 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Artie Schiller

• #9 Valid Point   6-1
• #10 Therapist   5-2
• #2 Rinaldi    3-1
• #4 Delaware    9-2

Analysis: Shug Valid Point is one of two in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn. The colt is back on turf after fading to finish a well beaten eighth last out in the Salvatore (G3) on the main track at Monmouth Park. This guy won the Secretariat (G1) at Arlington Park last summer but has not been better than eighth in four starts since that victory. Two of those starts did come in G1 company and he gets into a much easier spot here. The colt has put in good works since his last outing and looks capable of bouncing back with a much better effort here.

Therapist stalked the early pace while saving ground and could not catch the gate to wire winner last out in the state bred Mohawk at Belmont Park. This gelding is an eight-time stakes winner, his last coming at seven furlongs in the First Defence at Belmont Park back in June off a 7 ½ month layoff. He has won three times at a mile and should be able to work out a good trip sitting mid pack. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and in good hands with the Clement barn that is off to a good start at the meeting.

Rinaldi tired to finish sixth last out in the state bred Mohawk. The gelding jumped out to the lead but Saez gave up the lead to Somelikeithotbrown who went on control the pace and win. The Bond trainee took the field gate to wire in the state bred West Point two back and beating state bred Alw-2 optional claimers three back. The strategy last time just did not work, and he gets a jock switch to Juarez who figures to send the gelding here. He has run well in a couple of starts with give to the ground which may still be the cast this afternoon. 

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 10 ANALYSIS (5:36 P.M. ET)

Race 10 The Mrs. Revere G2

• #1 Hendy Woods   3-1
• #4 Princess Grace   3-1
• #3 Stunning Sky   5-2
• #7 Witez   8-1

Analysis: Hendy Woods tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch in the stretch in a sixth-place finish in the QEII Cup (G1) at Keeneland over good ground, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. She was a god second over the turf here two back in the Edgewood (G2). She won the Indiana Grand three back over yielding ground. She should get a good trip sitting just off the lone speed in here and this group is not as tough as she faced in her last pair.

Princess Grace is one of four in here that exit the Valley View (G3). She stalked the early pace, made a good move and headed for home with the lead but could not hold off the late charge of Stunning Sky late. It was just her third career start and first in stakes company. I like the jock switch here to Geroux and she looks capable of turning the tables here. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #6 Flintshire’s Rock   8-1
• R3: #7 Aviano   8-1
• R3: #5 Proven Innocent   10-1
• R4: #10 Big Wonder    8-1
• R5: #5 Momza   8-1
• R6: #6 Gauguin   8-1
• R7: #2 Market Alert   10-1
• R7: #3 Half Right   8-1
• R8: #2 Royal Collection   20-1
• R10: #1 Eye Luv Lulu   15-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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