Sunday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

My second choice Therapist ran down my top pick Valid Point in the final strides to win the feature on Saturday at Aqueduct, the $100,000 Artie Schiller.

The gelding paid $8.30 and the exacta came back at a surprising generous $60 for $2. I wished I had punched that combo a few extra times.

We were off the turf at Churchill Downs. The feature was the $200,000 Mrs. Revere (G2) where my top pick was scratched and my second choice Princess Grace got the job done and returning $7.00.

We are going to be off the turf at Churchill Downs on Sunday and all next week. After a dry September in Louisville the turf is having some root troubles, so it is dirt racing only.

We have two stakes at Aqueduct on Sunday, starting with the $100,000 Key Cents which is the second race on the card. The race drew a small field of five juvenile fillies that will travel six furlongs on the main track.

Party At Page’s is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The Jeremiah Englehart trainee won the state bred Lady Finger two back but was a well beaten fourth in the Maid of the Mist in her last outing. That trip was at a mile and she will appreciate the cut back to six furlongs.

The feature this afternoon is the $100,000 Winter Memories for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on turf. The grass was yielding yesterday, and two of the four races were taken off the turf.

There is some rain in the forecast for later in the day, but I am hoping we will be back on the turf for the stake which drew seven along with one main track only entrant.

As you can see below, I landed on the favorite. Speaktomeofsummer ran well in a runner up finish in the Sands Point (G2) in her last outing. She is sent out by Christophe Clement who is off to a hot start at the meeting, winning with six of his 16 starters.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.

You can catch the action from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs today from 12:00 to 3:30 ET on FS2 and 3:30 to 6:00 on FS1.  In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (11:50 A.M. ET)

Race 1 Clm $25,000

• #6 Ian Glass   4-1
• #2 Duncastle   7-2
• #1 New York's Finest / 1a Dowse's Beach   5-2
• #4 The Queen Rules   8-1

Analysis: Ian Glass raced at the back of the pack while down along a deep rail in the mid, angled out and was not a threat against $32,000 foes in a race taken off the turf. Two back the gelding was a decent third going six furlongs on the cut back from a mile where he beat $35,000 non-winners of three at the Spa three back. He drops in for a $25,000 tag and has done his best work on turf. He figures to bounce back with a much better effort in this spot and Rosario sticks for the Handal barn.

Duncastle took the field gate to wire to win for this tag last out at Belmont Park, his fourth win on turf in 16 trips. It was his first win since beating $30,000 non-winners of three at Fair Grounds back in March. He draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. The bug likely sends him but there are a couple of foes in here that can go with him early. 

AQUEDUCT RACE 9 ANALYSIS (3:47 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Winter Memories

• #1 Speaktomeofsummer   2-1
• #7 Crystalle   8-1
• #5 Duopoly   5-2
• #2 Selflessly   9-2

Analysis: Speaktomeofsummer was second last out in the Sands Point at Belmont park going a mile. The filly tracked the early pace came four wide into the stretch and had to steady in behind foes and kicked on when clear to finish two lengths behind the winner. He is a two-time stakes winner, taking the Lake Placid (G2) three back at the Spa and winning the one-mile Chelsey Flower over the grass here last November. A clean rip makes her tough in this spot.

Crystalle stalked the early pace while saving ground and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish last out against Alw-1 optional claimers. It was her first go off a 11-month layoff and she did not get any pace to run at. She won the PG Johnson last summer in her first start against winners and then ran second in the Miss Grillo (G2) before a 11th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). She should be tighter second off the bench and should see a bit more pace in front of her here. The 8-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Duopoly exits the Valley View (G3) at Keeneland where she tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fifth-place finish. The top four came back to run in yesterday's Mrs. Revere (G2) at Churchill Downs. The Brown trainee broke her maiden in her second career start and then took the field gate to wire two back at the Spa to beat Alw-1 company. She has some speed and looks as if she still has some upside.

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 8 ANALYSIS (4:36 P.M. ET)

Race 8 Md Sp Wt

• #5 Caddo River   8-5
• #4 Windcracker   5-2
• #1 Alejandro   3-1
• #6 Hometown Hero   10-1               

Analysis: Caddo River invades from New York for his third career start and looks tough here as the favorite. The Cox trainee tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish at 5-1 in his debut. Second out at Belmont Park he dueled for the early lead, shook clear heading for home and got outrun down, beaten 3/4 of a length. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and a one turn mile should suit him. He is by Hard Spun out of the stakes winner Pangburn ($338,480) who was best going long.

Windcracker adds blinkers here for his fifth career start for the Amoss barn. Last out he chased the early pace and could not match strides with the winner in a runner up finish at Keeneland going two turns. He ran well going six furlongs in his first two starts, a third in his debut and a runner up finish second out at the Spa. The colt is out of a Forestry mare that has dropped three winners including stakes winner Samuel Dechamplain ($162,567).

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #4 The Queen Rules   8-1
• R2: #1 Chasing Cara   8-1
• R4: #4 Harper’s in Charge   8-1
• R5: #3 Runabout   8-1
• R6: #8 Miss Delecious   12-1
• R6: #11 Fuchsia   10-1
• R7: #5 My Amanjena   10-1
• R8: #4 Runaway Lute   8-1
• R9: #7 Crystalle   8-1
• R10: #2 Daggerboard   10-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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