Thursday’s Picks from Aqueduct

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

We are back in action with a solid nine race card at Aqueduct for Thursday, which likely will be the last week with turf racing as winter is approaching.

We have four races carded for the grass this afternoon including today’s feature which is a first level state bred allowance race that drew a competitive field of a dozen.

The James Bond trained Wild William is the 5-2 morning line favorite and coming off a sharp win versus $35,000 non-winners of three over the Belmont Park turf at six furlongs.

I went looking for a bit more value as you can see below. I landed on On the Couch (4-1) who has a couple of thirds at this condition in his first two starts against winners. The well bred son of Freud looks capable of a better effort than he put out last out and reunites with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

Gulfstream Park opened yesterday for its championship meeting and we will head out Saturday for the Claiming Crown. The event always draws big competitive fields.

There are nine stakes on Saturday with purses ranging from $70,000 to $150,000 for the Claiming Crown Tiara.

We have a good card at Aqueduct on Saturday as well which will feature four stakes highlighted with the $250,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (G1), one of the final Grade 1 races on the calendar this year.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start: 

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $40,000

• #8 Amity Island   5-2
• #10 Rosey's Peach   3-1
• #9 Wish for Magic   10-1
• #5 Quarantina   8-1

Analysis: Amity Island was outrun in her debut at 9-1 going six furlongs on turf and drops in for a tag and switches to dirt for her second career outing. The filly is in good hands with the Brown barn that is 32% winners with second out maidens, and she seems better suited pedigree wise for the main track. She is by Brody's Cause out of a stakes placed A.P. Jet mare that has dropped four other foals to race with three winners including stakes winner Fierce Lady ($241,680) and stakes placed Bluegrass Jamboree ($335,335). We should see more out of this gal on the class drop. The barn is 38% winners (with a +ROI) dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming.

Rosey's Peach prompted the early pace, came with a four wide bid and weakened to finish fourth last out in the mud in her first start for a tag. She takes the blinkers off here. Three back at the Spa in her second career star she ran a decent third in an effort that makes her a threat in this weak spot. She should be able to handle a one turn mile She is out of the stakes winner Peach Flambe ($430,832) who has dropped five winners, including stakes winner Berning Rose ($223,800). Worth another look in her second start for a tag and catching a fast main track. 

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:45 P.M. ET)

Race 8 Alw $72,000N1X

• #10 On the Couch   4-1
• #5 Tiergan   10-1
• #9 Wild William   5-2
• #6 Our Destiny   6-1

Analysis: On the Couch is back on turf after stalked the early pace and finishing evenly in a third-place finish in the mud last out in a race washed off the grass. Two back on turf at Belmont Park going seven furlongs the colt made a mild late run to finish third in his first go against winners. He graduated three back for a $40,000 tag in his second career start and off a three-month break. This guy looks as if he still has plenty of upside and is in good hands with the Duarte barn. The colt has a couple of sibs that are turf winners and two of his sibs are stakes winners, top earner My Dinah ($450,391). He reunites with Johnny V. and the 4-1 morning line looks fair.

Tiergan made a mild late rally to finish fourth last out going lone on turf and I don't like backing runners going from route to sprint on turf often. This guy did miss by just a neck going seven furlongs in the slop four back and graduated at six furlongs on the main track back in '18. His last was just his first trip on turf. Looks as if he is going to be a decent price in this spot and he should be coming late with Junior aboard. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #9 Wish for Magic   10-1
• R2: #9 Micromillion   12-1
• R4: #1 Tenderfoot   8-1
• R6: #3 Johnnypump   10-1
• R8: #5 Tiergan   10-1 

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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