Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

We have a couple of good cards at Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park on Saturday afternoon and while there are some showers in the forecast in New York, the forecast look about perfect in Florida.

At Gulfstream Park today there are five stakes highlighted by a pair of stakes that will serve as preps for the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) and the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1).

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park including all of the stakes action.

The $100,000 Harlan’s Holiday (G3) likely will produce a couple of starters for the Pegasus. All eyes will be on the up and coming Tatweej, the $2.5 million Keeneland purchase who makes his belated stakes debut.

The $200,000 Ft. Lauderdale (G2) will serve as a prep for the Pegasus Turf and it drew a competitive field of 10 and there is an abundance of early speed signed up that makes it a tricky race.

I went looking for a contender that can come from off the pace and came up with the Shug McGaughey trained Breaking the Rules. The five-year-old is going to offer some decent value if we catch most of his 8-1 morning line.

State breds are featured at the Big A today with a field of six going in the $100,000 Alex M. Robb. Mr. Buff is the 7-5 morning line favorite and defending champ.

The gelding is coming back with just a week off, checking in fifth in the Cigar Mile (G1) last Saturday. He will appreciate the return to the New York bred ranks.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $20,000

• #9 Open Lengths 5-2
• #6 Paint Music for Me 7-5
• #5 Tizme Bobby McGee 6-1
• #1 Uncle Ned 6-1

Analysis: Open Lengths was not a threat last out in an eighth-place finish on turf for a $40,000 tag and returns to the main track while dropping in for $20,000 here for the Weaver barn. This guy showed some ability with a couple of thirds to start his career including over a muddy track at Finger Lakes in his second career start. The barn is 26% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt. He catches an easier spot here and Carmouche sticks and should have this guy closer to the pace. He is by lea out of the stakes winner Madame Pele ($197,942) who was stakes placed at nine furlongs.

Paint Music for Me makes just his third starts since March for the Nevin barn. He came back off a five month break two back at Laurel Park and ran second behind a seven-length winner on the main track. He regressed last out in a sixth on turf. He drops in class in for $20,000 here and this guy is bred to handle a wet track, by Munnings out of the stakes winner Music Please ($146,413) that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners.

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:45 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Alex M. Robb

• #4 Mr. Buff 7-5
• #1 Sea Foam 5-2
• #3 City Man 9-2
• #5 Danny California 8-1

Analysis: Mr. Buff wheels back quick off a week break unless Kimmel elects to scratch him and he seems to be leaning toward running him. He pressed the early pace in the Cigar Mile (G1) and tired to finish a well beaten fifth. He has been beaten 12+ lengths in three of his last four starts, all in graded stakes company. When he runs against state breds he is very tough and has won this race the past two years, winning last year by 7 1/2 lengths. He is 8 for 14 over the Big A main track and 10 for 15 in his career at nine furlongs. There is not a ton of early pace in here and the early fractions should be moderate. With Carmouche up he figures to be sent. He has run well over a wet track in his career.

Sea Foam was third behind our top pick in the state bred Empire Classic in his last outing, beaten 6 1/4 lengths. He came into that race off back to back wins, beating state bred Alw-2 foes followed by open Alw-2 company with a career top speed figure two back which was at today's distance. He needs to jump up to a near new career top to beat the chalk in this spot. Rosario sticks with this guy of the two Clement sends out.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 9 ANALYSIS (4:09 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Harlan's Holiday G3

• #2 Phat Man 5-2
• #7 Tatweej 4-1
• #1 Tax 2-1
• #6 Math Wizard 9-2

Analysis: Phat Man is making his second start off an eight-month layoff here for the Sweezey barn. Last out in the Lafayette at Keeneland going seven furlongs he raced near the back of the pack was caught out wide and finished evenly in a sixth-place finish, beaten four lengths. The runner up True Timber came back to win the Cigar Mile (G1) last week. Our top pick has run well over the main track here, landing in the exacta in all three trips including his two top career Beyers. He won the Fred Hooper (G3) here three back at a mile and then was second to Mr Freeze in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). He has worked sharply since his return effort and will appreciate the stretch out to a route here. He reunites with Irad who was aboard for his Hooper win.

Tatweej trainee makes his stakes debut here after winning his last three starts. He beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out in the slop at a mile, drawing off to win by 3 ¾ lengths. This guy was purchased for $2.5 million back in ’17 but did not make his debut until June here where he was third. This will be his first trip going two turns and he gets a class test. The colt still looks as if he has plenty of upside and he should be forwardly placed in a field here without a ton of early zip signed up. The 4-1 morning line seems generous. He may end up lighter.

Tax is making his first start since a fifth-place finish in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) back in May. He has not won since taking the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga in July of 2019 going 1 1/8 miles. He was fourth in the Belmont Stakes (G1) prior to that win. The gelding has been working quickly for his return for a barn that is 41% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He ran well three back in the Discovery (G3) at Aqueduct which was off a three-month break.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R3: #1 Runningwscissors 8-1
• R6: #4 Grandgran 8-1
• R7: #8 Family Biz 8-1
• R7: #6 Blindwillie McTell 8-1
• R8: #5 Danny California 8-1
• R9: #7 Z’finale 8-1

Good luck today!

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