Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

15 minute read

The first day of the New Year was pretty forgettable for the most part. My top pick won the opener at Aqueduct paying a puny $3.80 and my top picks ran second in both of the featured races in yesterday’s column.

One of those was Extravagant Kid in the $75,000 Janus at Gulfstream Park. The gelding was the second choice at 5-2 and he looked poised to win a three way battle in the stretch.

For some reason Tyler Gaffalione seemed to wait too long to ask him to run and by the time he did the favorite Imprimis got the jump on him and prevailed by a neck.

Gaffalione is certainly one of the top jockeys at the meet, but it was just a bonehead ride that appeared to cost him the victory and cost me a win and exacta wager.

There are five stakes on today’s card at Gulfstream Park and I have four of them covered in today’s Best Plays Report which includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.

The feature at Aqueduct is the $100,000 Gravesand. The race drew just five older runners that will go 6 ½ furlongs. I generally despise five horse fields, but this race came up interesting and as you can see below I landed on My Boy Tate.

The $100,000 Sham (G3) at Santa Anita is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The race attracted just five and Life Is Good is the 2-5 morning line favorite. The Baffert trainee broke his maiden by 9 ½ lengths in his debut. The race looks like a pass for me.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $40,000

• #6 Democratic Values 6-5
• #5 Kith 8-1
• #7 Joycee Haz Pizzaz 2-1
• #2 Scorpion Dynasty 9-2

Analysis: Democratic Values is going to get the day off to a chalky start. The Abreu trainee adds blinkers here for his third start off the bench. He had the misfortune of running into Nashville two back off the bench, running second behind the talented colt who came back to win the Perryville and then running fourth in the Malibu (G1). Last out our top pick caught a muddy track and raced wide in a fifth-place finish at Belmont Park. The winners, runner up and fourth place finisher all came out of that race to win next out. He looks well spotted dropping in for a tag here and picks up Lezcano.

Kith made a mild late rally to finish fifth last out on turf for this tag. His lone start on dirt came two back where he rallied to finish third beaten a length for a $30,000 tag. He reunites with the bug Cardenas who was aboard two back and looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current form cycle. This guy is bred to like a wet track and we may still have some moisture in the racing surface after rains fell overnight. He is out of a stakes placed Saarland mare that has dropped three winners.

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:50 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Gravesand

• #4 My Boy Tate 2-1
• #1 Happy Farm 4-1
• #5 Stan the Man 9-5
• #3 Pete's Play Call 5-2

Analysis: My Boy Tate prompted the early pace, took over and got clear and then was run down at the wire by Funny Guy in a tough neck loss in a NY Stallion Series race here going seven furlongs. He was two clear of third place finisher Bankit who came back to win the state bred Alex M. Robb in his next outing on Dec. 12. He has done most of his best work against state breds but only has to face four here. He should be pressing or chasing the rail horse and will likely have the jump heading for home over our third choice. He has run well here, landing in the exacta in 7 of 9 trips and the cut back to 6 1/2 suits. If the track is still wet that would be an added bonus as he is perfect in four trips on the off going.

Happy Farms is making his first start since last March where this guy was in the Jason Servis barn. He makes his first start here for the Rice barn hat is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. Last out in the Tom Fool 'Cap (G3) he dueled for the early lead, got clear heading for home and could not hold off Mind Control. Two back he was beaten a head by Firenze Fire. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he may be able to shake loose here from the rail. A tough call with the layoff and fact his previous trainer was an alleged cheater, but in this compact field the 4-1 morning line looks fair enough to give him a look.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 9 ANALYSIS (4:13 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Ginger Brew

• #1 Oyster Box 5-1
• #6 Con Lima 7-2
• #3 Honey Pants 3-1
• #4 Inthewinnerscircle 8-1
• #8 I Get It 6-1

Oyster Box was a good looking maiden winner in her debut for the Motion barn. The filly stalked the early pace and finished gamely to win going six furlongs on the grass at Belmont Park. The effort was flattered when the third and fourth place finishers came back to win next out and two others ran second next out. This gal should only get better with more ground. She is by Tapit out of the multiple turf graded stakes winner Starformer ($543,126) who has dropped two other foals to race, both turf winners including stakes winner Flavius ($581,151). This gal looks as if she still has a ton of upside.

Con Lima took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-1 optional claimers last out over good ground here at a mile. It was her first start on turf after running second in back to back stakes washed off the turf. Only our third choice earned a higher last out speed fig on turf and that was at six furlongs. The Pletcher trainee catches a field without a ton of early zip signed up and she should be able to be on or close to what should be a moderate pace.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #5 Kith 8-1
• R2: #10 Gagliano 15-1
• R7: #8 Sixto 8-1
• R9: #8 Bronxville 8-1

Good luck today!

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