Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The headliner today comes at Gulfstream Park, the $100,000 Tropical Turf (G3) which drew a competitive field of nine that will go one mile on the turf.

There is a mandatory payout in the Jackpot 6 at Gulfstream Park and there is over $1 million in the pot. I have been a vocal critic of jackpot bets which I think are terrible for the game overall. The only time to play them is when there is a mandatory payout.

The Tropical Turf is a challenging race that is in the six race sequence. As you can see below, I landed on Casa Creed (8-1), who makes his first start since a 12^th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).

It is a tricky race with Admission Office (7-2) making his first start since last June and Analyze It likely to be a short price as he makes his first start since an eighth-place finish in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

The only stake at Aqueduct on Saturday is the $100,000 Say Florida Sandy for state breds going seven furlongs. The race drew only five and is the third race on the nine race card, meaning it is part of the early Pick 4 and Pick 5.

Funny Guy is the 3-5 morning line favorite, but My Boy Tate (5-2) may have a shot of beating him and at least will offer a bit more value.

The Michelle Nevin trainee was a disappointing fourth in the Gravesand in the mud in his last outing and is better than he showed last out.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $40,000

• #8 Half Day Pam   9-2
• #1 Bustinmygroove   3-5
• #3 Iova   6-1
• #5 New York Banker   20-1

Analysis: Half Day Pam is a $32,000 Spa purchase making her debut for the RRod barn that is 18% winners with first timers. The filly is by Violence out of a General Meeting mare that has dropped three winners, two which have earned more than $200K. She put in a good breeze on Jan. 5 and looks ready to at first asking and showing up tagged for $40,000 looks like a good spot.

Bustinmygroove drops in for a tag here for her third career start here for the Gargan barn. She chased the early pace and weakened to finish third in her debut last October. Two months later she came back with a runner up finish as the beaten favorite, no match for a 5 1/2 length winner. Lasix is added and she posted a bullet work on Dec. 29. Going back five years the barn is 23% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. She does not need to move forward much off her last effort to pick up her diploma here but her price is going to be very much on the light side.  

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:50 P.M. ET)

Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X

• #8 Miss Jimmy   5-2
• #7 Ruvies in Time   3-1
• #4 Baby Boss   9-2
• #6 Doll   8-1

Analysis: Miss Jimmy pressed the early pace and finished gamely to come up just 3/4 of a length short while winning the place spot by a nose. Two back she ran second at this level behind repeat winner Letmetakethiscall who came back to beat open Alw-1 company in her next outing on Dec. 31 here. The mare makes her third start since landing with the Toscano barn and has landed in the exacta in 15 of her 17 career starts, mostly at Finger Lakes but she has shown recently she fits here.

Ruvies in Time dueled for the early lead and drew clear in the final furlong to beat state bred Alw-1 foes by 5 3/4 lengths with a career top speed fig. It took her a while to pass this condition and it is a tall task to have her come right back and win at this level but it is not the toughest looking of spots. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers in a race with plenty of early speed signed up. The barn goes from the bug to Franco. 

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 10 ANALYSIS (4:49 P.M. ET)

Race 10 The Tropical Turf G3

• #2 Casa Creed   8-1
• #6 Analyze It    2-1
• #3 Ride a Comet   5-1
• #1 Admission Office   7-2

Analysis: Casa Creed makes his first start since tiring to finish 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) where he was in over his head. He went 0 for 5 last year but earned competitive numbers two back in a fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) and three back in a third in the Fourstardave ‘Cap (G1) at Saratoga. He has not won since taking the Hall of Fame (G2) in August of 2019 at the Spa. He has worked sharply since his last outing and if he runs back to his efforts two and three back, he fits in this spot and the 8-1 morning line looks more than fair. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and should be close to the lead here and we have seen at this meeting it is better to be forwardly placed over this turf course.

Analyze It returned off nearly a two-year layoff last September by winning the Red Bank (G3) at Monmouth Park and matching his career best speed figure which was earned in his game third in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). He was sent off as the favorite in his last outing in the Shadwell Turf Mile but weakened to finish eighth after stalking the early pace. He returns off a three month break here for the Brown barn that is 29% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. This guy rarely runs a bad one and won his first three starts before losing photos in his next three outings including a neck loss in the 2018 Secretariat (G1). Brown should have him ready for this spot.

Ride a Comet is back on turf here after coming back off a two-year layoff with back to back wins sprinting on Tapeta at Woodbine. The Casse trainee has won four of his five career starts on turf, the last coming in a victory in the Del Mar Derby (G2) in 2018. Since shipping to Florida he has been working quickly in the mornings at Palm Meadows with a pair of bullet works on turf. He won both of his starts at a mile on grass and looks primed for a top effort third off the bench here. The Casse barn is 10% winners moving runners from synth to turf. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #5 New York Banker   20-1
• R3: #4 Runningwscissors   12-1
• R5: #3 Flush   8-1
• R6: #5 Reticent   8-1
• R6: #4 French Toast   8-1
• R7: #1 Siena Magic   10-1
• R8: #6 Doll   8-1
• R9: #2 Truebelieve   10-1 

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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