Sunday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

The much anticipated showdown between Charlatan and Knicks Go materialized in the $20 million Saudi Cup yesterday, but it ended prematurely with about a furlong to go in the stretch.

Knicks Go started to back up and the John Gosden trained Mishriff came calling late to get past Charlatan and post the upset, returning his backers $41.60.

Mishriff was my third choice in the race and all week was taking action overseas at around 6-1 to 7-1. With about 10 minutes to post he was sitting at a generous 30-1, then took some last action to close at 19-1, still a nice overlay.

I wanted to break up the chalky exacta and used Max Player and Mishriff, but used Knicks Go instead of Charlatan, costing myself a nice $2 exacta that paid $139.20.

I did place a win wager on my second choice Max Player who went off at 24-1, but I seldom wager on two horses to win and passed on Mishriff which was a pretty dumb move.

Mishriff was not a threat in the QIPCO Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot in his previous start but it was over very soft ground he does not care much for. He showed he could run on dirt with a runner up finish in last year’s Saudi Derby.

It will be interesting to see who comes back to battle next month in the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) at Meydan.

America’s Day at the Races” will be televised on FS1 from 8:30am to 1:00 ET, and then on FS2 from 1:00 to 5:30. There will be coverage of the Saudi Cup and the action from Aqueduct and Laurel Park. You can also stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.

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Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $25,000

• #4 Trick the Universe 9-2
• #1 Day's Humor 6-5
• #6 Mia Calia 4-1
• #2 Mill Stone Creek 2-1

Analysis: Trick the Universe debuts for the Matties barn that is showing a 1 for 3 mark with debut runners. Dating back five years the trainer has hit with 3 of 18 first time starters (with a +ROI). Decent looking works on the morning tab and this is not a very tough looking spot. The mare is by Artie Schiller out of a Valuer Plus mare, her first foal to race.

Day's Humor is going to be the short priced favorite. She tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth in her debut. She drops in for a tag and Carmouche sticks for the Kimmel barn that is having a good meet, hitting at a 21% clip. The trainer is just 1 for his last 17 with second out maidens. She is out of a Distorted Humor mare that has dropped four other foals to race with just one winner.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 6 ANALYSIS (3:10 P.M. ET)

Race 6 Clm $16,000N1Y

• #9 Farley 7-2
• #4 Zero Gravity 4-1
• #7 Twenty Four Seven 9-2
• #5 Battle of Blenheim 10-1

Analysis: Farley breaks from the outside here after a solid effort last out in a runner up finish at this level, beaten a half-length. The Sano trainee stalked the early pace and battle don gamely in the stretch, winning the place photo by a head. The third-place finisher J P Hellish came back to beat state bred Alw-1 optional claimers here on Feb. 18. Three of his four wins on turf have come here and he gets a bit more ground here. He landed in a deadheat for second two back where he missed by just a neck. He should be able to work out a good trip mid pack as long as Ortiz just not get hung out wide heading into the first turn.

Zero Gravity raced near the back of the pack while saving ground and came with a good late run to finish third last out against state bred Alw-1 optional claimers, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot. He improved off a sixth-place finish two back in his local debut after shipping down from New York. His last win on turf came last may at Churchill Downs where he beat $40,000 claimers. He looks well spotted as he drops into an easier spot here for the Gallegos barn that is still looking to get off the duck at the meet at 0 for 30.

AQUEDUCT RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:20 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Alw $50,000s

• #9 Dust Devil 3-1
• #4 Advance Notice 5-2
• #8 Miami Mumbles 8-1
• #5 Perceived 4-1

Analysis: Dust Devil was a good looking winner last out versus $40,000 non-winners of two in his first start off the claim by the Kantarmaci barn. The gelding was last early and came with a good middle move to take over the lead and drew clear in the stretch to win by 5 3/4 lengths. He was claimed two back out of a runner up finish versus $25,000 non-winners of two. The barn protects him here and this looks like a good spot. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks capable of winning right back here.

Advance Notice broke his maiden in his debut at the Spa last September for a $20,000 tag and has come up short at this level in five straight starts since. He was beaten just a neck two back and last out set the early fractions while down in the two-three path and was no match for the winner in a runner up finish. Most of the winners that day were out farther on the track. The fractions were soft last out but the track was playing pretty slow that day. Four of his last five numbers are good enough to win against this group.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R4: #8 Smile Bryan 8-1
• R5: #5 Abuelo Paps 10-1
• R7: #8 Miami Mumbles 8-1
• R9: #2 Grit and Glory 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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