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Friday's Picks from Aqueduct



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After I whiffed on the second and third races at Aqueduct knocking me out of the Pick 5 on Thursday things really were not going well.

In the nightcap my top Beatthatflew was away dead last and looked hopeless but came rolling late to get up and return $12.80. Along with my third choice Dutchman Forever, the $2 exacta returned a hefty $80 and pretty much saved the day for my bankroll.

Friday’s card holds a bit more promise but as you can see by my rather short Live Longshot list below, we could be looking at a slightly chalky day.

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That likely will not be the case on Saturday at Aqueduct where we have the New York Claiming Championship series. There are 10 stakes limited to claiming runners and we have plenty of large and competitive fields.

The day will start early with the Dubai World Cup card. First race is 7:45ET. The races will be televised on FS1 including the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) which will be the last of nine races with a post time of 12:50 ET.

The Florida Derby card at Gulfstream Park gets underway at 11:30am ET with the marquee race of the meeting going off at 6:40 ET.

It will be a marathon day so get plenty of sleep. My Best Plays Report will include the Road to the Kentucky Derby points races along with the Dubai World Cup.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct for Friday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which include the major Kentucky Derby preps.

Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

  • #5 Dorothy's the Boss 3-1
  • #2 Pay Grade 8-5
  • #1 Stormi Cat Lady 4-1
  • #7 Sweet Franny Lu 6-1

Analysis: Dorothy's the Boss caught a sloppy track in her debut where she was sent off at 20-1 in a field of 12. She came with a six wide run and finished up well to rally for third. She did it over a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. Three have come out of that race to run back with a couple of thirds the best finishes. She should move forward with a race under her belt and has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. She is by Laoban out of a Hook and Ladder mare that won going two turns and has dropped one winner Wild Cappucino ($48,816) who won a route race at Chuck Town going three turns on Sunday. Kimmel has been very live at the meet, hitting at a 27% clip.

Pay Grade was beaten just a head last out in her local debut. She was 5 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She was third in her debut at Tampa Bay Downs against open maidens. She returns with lasix added for the Clement barn. After her last start she shipped back to Florida so the barn must have though she was good enough to beat open maidens either at Tampa or Gulfstream Park. This is a good spot shipping back north to face state breds. The barn has cooled off at this meet, hitting with just 1 of 14 starters.

AQUEDUCT RACE 6 ANALYSIS (3:52 P.M. ET)

Race 6 Clm $12,500

  • #3 Morgantown 7-2
  • #6 Releasethethunder 8-1
  • #5 Ninth Hour 5-2
  • #4 Win With Pride 4-1

Analysis: Morgantown set the early fractions while toward a deep inside and weakened late to finish third last out against $10,000 foes and a couple of foes he faces again today. The Rice trainee was dropping out of a state bred Alw-1 race where he was a distant seventh. He looks back on track here and owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers. He looks capable of taking this group gate to wire.

Releasethethunder tracked the early pace and weakened to finish sixth last out for this tag for the Kantarmaci barn. This gelding now goes to the Vazquez barn that is 23% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding has been popular at the claim box, switching hands five times since last summer. He caught a muddy track last out and came up empty at even month two back for this tag. He owns back numbers good enough to handle this group if he can regain his form. He has been better on a fast track and looks capable of bouncing back if the track dries out. Looks as if he is going to be a decent price in this spot.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager.

Aqueduct

  • R5: #6 Ask Neal 15-1
  • R6: #6 Releasethethunder 8-1
  • R8: #6 Fortune’s Sister 8-1

Good luck today!

  
 
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike Dempsey Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.

Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.

While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.

Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day.

Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots.

Join Mike daily with top picks from Churchill Downs or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
  
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