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Saturday's Picks from Aqueduct, Meydan, and Gulfstream Park



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Saturday is just one of those days it is great to be a horseplayer. And it is going to be a long day.

The Dubai World Cup card kicks things off this morning, the first of nine races set to go off at 7:45am ET. The highlight of the card is the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) which drew a field of 14.

The U.S. based Mystic Guide is the 5-2 morning line favorite but as you can see below, I am looking for more value and landed on Salute the Soldier (8-1), who won the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) in his final prep for the big day.

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It is Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park with 14 races with post time of the opener at 11:30am ET. I have seven of the races in today’s Best Plays Report including all six races making up the Rainbow 6 with a mandatory payout.

Aqueduct serves us up 10 races, all starter stakes on New York Claiming Championship Day. The card opens with a couple of short fields and likely chalky results, but the rest of the card offers up plenty of excellent wagering opportunities.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 14 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream park including the Dubai World Cup and Jeff Ruby from Turfway Park.

The NBC Sports Network will televise the Florida Derby this afternoon during a one hour telecast that gets underway at 6:00 ET. “America’s Day at the Races” will be televised from 8:00am ET to 11:00 covering the Dubai World Cup card and then action from Aqueduct and other tracks from 2:30 to 3:00 on FS2, 3:00 to 4:30 p.m. on FS1, and 4:30 to 7:30 on FS2.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct for Saturday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which include the major Kentucky Derby preps.

Here is the Dubai World Cup to get the day off to a good start:

MEYDAN RACE 9 ANALYSIS (12:50 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Dubai World Cup G1

  • #11 Salute the Soldier 8-1
  • #8 Magny Cours 12-1
  • #10 Mystic Guide 5-2
  • #5 Great Scot 15-1

Analysis: Salute the Soldier is coming off impressive victories in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 and 3. Last out he took the field gate to wire and opened up turning for home without much asking and held on to win by 1 ¾ lengths. He draws an outside post but has enough tactical speed to overcome it. Last March he won the Burj Nahaar (G3) at a mile and would have been one of the major players in the Godolphin Mile (G1), but the pandemic knocked out the races last year. He has shown he can handle the distance and I like the fact he will be forwardly placed, and a decent price makes him the play here. He has won three of his five trips over the surface in his career.

Magny Cours has made just eight starts in his career for trainer Andre Fabre, winning five and running second in two others. He is perfect in his three starts on synthetic surfaces, the most recent a win as the heavy favorite at Chantilly in the Prix Darshaan at 1 3/16 miles. That outing was his first start off a nine-month layoff. He earned solid Timeform numbers two and three back on turf. This is certainly a class test as he has just two outings in Group company, a second and a fifth, but this race has not come up as tough as in previous years. He reunites with Buick who was aboard him two back for his win and he is going to be a decent price here, currently at 12-1 in early betting and possibly higher by post time.

Mystic Guide will be the favorite here and the best hope of the U.S. contingent. U.S. based runners have won just three of the last 10 editions of this race. The colt came back off a 4 1/2-month break winning the Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park in the slop with a career top Beyer of 108. He made six starts last year including winning the Jim Dandy (G2) and then running a game second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) behind Happy Saver. He showed at Belmont Park he can handle the 1 ¼ miles and does draw a better post than our top pair.

AQUEDUCT RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:24 P.M. ET)

Race 7 The More To Tel

  • #2 Malibu Pro 3-1
  • #1 Durkin's Call 6-1
  • #5 Supreme Aura 5-2
  • #6 Control Group 5-1

Analysis: Malibu Pro tracked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish third versus $40,000 foes, no match for the top pair. The runner up Limonite came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in his next start and then was a game second in the Stymie in his most recent start on Feb. 27. Our top pick was claimed out of his last outing by the RRod barn that is 25% winners first off the claim. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good trip sitting off what likely is going to be a sharp early pace. He gets a jock upgrade to Carmouche.

Durkin's Call came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out against $25,000 state breds. The gelding earned a near career top speed fig in the effort. He was claimed out of the race by Lynch, a former assistant to Ray Handal who is showing a 1 for 4 mark first off the claim. He steps into a tougher spot here but is in light with the bug and is going to get a good pace set up. Worth tossing in the mix here if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 12 ANALYSIS (5:17 P.M. CT)

Race 12 The Gulfstream Park Oaks G2

  • #6 Millefeuille 7-2
  • #1 Con Lima 3-1
  • #3 Crazy Beautiful 5-2
  • #7 Competitive Speed 8-1

Analysis: Millefeuille tracked the early pace and was shuffled back when a fading foe got in her way and she faded to finish a well beaten seventh in the Davona Dale (G2) here which was her first start of the year. She broke her maiden at Belmont Park going a one turn mile in her second career start and then ran a game second in the Demoiselle (G2) in the slop going nine furlongs at the Big A in her stakes debut. She has come back with a solid works for the Mott barn and willing to give her another look here. It looks as if she may end up the third choice in here and offer some decent value.

Con Lima was second and placed first thanks to a DQ last out in the Herecomesthebride (G3) and has won three of her four starts on turf. She broke her maiden on the main track here last summer and was a decent second in the off the turf PG Johnson at the Spa before landing with Pletcher. Interesting move switch back to dirt and pedigree wise that seems to suit her. She is by Commissioner who as a dirt runner and the mare was a stakes winner on dirt. Pletcher is 22% winners moving runners form turf to dirt.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager.

Aqueduct

  • R1: #3 Rude Awaking 10-1
  • R2: #3 Home Run Maker 20-1
  • R3: #6 Dovey Lovey 15-1
  • R4: #5 Spikes Shirl 12-1
  • R8: #3 Daria’s Angel 10-1
  • R9: #11 Super Dude 8-1

Good luck today!

  
 
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike Dempsey Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup.
A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track!

Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line.

Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010.

While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll.

Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day.

Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots.

Join Mike daily with top picks from Churchill Downs or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
  
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