Let’s hope today’s card at Aqueduct gets off to a better start then on Thursday where the winners of the first three races paid $3.20, $3.30 and $3.60.
We have a 4-5 entry in the fourth and the seventh race and if we can beat those two chalks the early and late Pick 5 can pay out well.
We have reached the end of the Road to the Kentucky Derby tomorrow and it ends with a bit of a downer with a field of just six lining up in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1), the last 100-point race toward entry into the Run for the Roses.
Trainer Bob Baffert saddles the even money favorite Concert Tour and second choice Hozier (3-1) in what is a fairly unappealing betting race. I still have some time to find a reason to play against the favorite however.
The $200,000 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland will offer up 20 Derby points and drew a field of 10 led by the 6-5 morning line favorite Proxy from the Mike Stidham barn.
The colt came up short in a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his last outing. The colt has 34 Derby points which puts him right around 20th in the standings with several above him questionable for the race. A strong performance in the Lexington and he may head to Louisville.
The Doug O’Neill trained Hockey Dad (8-1) has 20 Derby points and a Lexington win would likely be enough to stamp a ticket to Churchill Downs if his connections are so inclined.
I will include my analysis for the two Road to the Kentucky Derby points races in my Best Plays Report for Saturday along with action from Aqueduct, Oaklawn Park and Keeneland. There are 10 stakes between the three tracks, and we should be able to find plenty of good wagering opportunities.
You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250. In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.
To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Friday click here.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which include the major Kentucky Derby preps and my Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day Reports.
Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:20 P.M. ET)
Race 1 Md Sp Wt
#5 Supply and Demand 5-2
#4 Dazzle Time 9-5
#3 Absolute Courage 2-1
#1 Lemon Drop Road 9-2
Analysis: Supply and Demand debuts for the Abreu barn that is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The gelding was a $230,000 Keeneland purchase, a good number for a runner by Exaggerator. The Include mare has dropped one foal to race, 1 for 7 Alex John who broke his maiden going a mile in his second career start. Solid works at Palm Meadows and one local breeze since returning to New York.
Dazzle Time chased the early pace and could not get to the loose op the lead gate to wire winner last out over a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. The winner was Three Two Zone, who came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in his next outing on March 26. After getting beaten double digit lengths in his first two starts the Nevin trainee is heading in the right direction and finds a good spot here.
AQUEDUCT RACE 6 ANALYSIS (4:01 P.M. ET)
Race 6 Md Sp Wt
#1 Continuation 3-1
#2 Cousin Andrew 8-5
#6 Goldenite 8-1
#7 Ajhar 12-1
Analysis: Continuation tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out going a mile here. The winner Mystic Night came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing on March 14 and the third and fourth place finishers came back to run second in their next outings. Kobiskie is having a very quiet year going 0 for 18 to date but is more than capable. The colt came up short in two starts in Kentucky after running well to kick off his career here last year with a couple of seconds. The barn is 18% winners when adding the hood.
Cousin Andrew is making his first start since last June at Belmont Park in the mud. He prompted the early pace and was no match for a 7 3/4 length winner in a runner up finish. The winner was Creed who came back to beat Alw-1 company in his next outing. The colt has been working steadily in the mornings for his return off the bench for the Brown barn that is 28% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. The $270,000 Keeneland purchase is out of an Aldebaran mare that has dropped three other runners with a pair of winners.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 or Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager.
R3: #2 Dreampoint 12-1
R4: #5 Not That Brady 12-1
R5: #4 Future Victory 10-1
R6: #6 Godlenite 8-1
R6: #7 Ajhar 12-1
R8: #9 Thruster 15-1
Good luck today!