Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Pimlico

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

It was Medina Spirit who took the field gate to wire to win the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday.

After losing more than my fair share of photo finishes over the last two days, I have to admit I was not real confident that my top pick Medina Spirit had enough left in the tank to hold off Mandaloun, but Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez urged the colt in deep stretch and he was able to hang on for the victory, returning $26.20.

The $2 exacta returned $503.60 and the $1 trifecta with Hot Rod Charlie returned $1,696.90.

I am kicking myself for not rating Mandaloun a bit higher higher. During a radio interview last week before the post position draw I mentioned three live longshots—Medina Spirit, Mandaloun and Dynamic One.

As the week went on, I ended up downgrading Mandaloun below Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie, which was costly, but a $26.20 winner was a good way to wrap things up on Saturday.

Overall, it was not the best Oaks-Derby Days I have had in recent years, so it is back to the grind on Sunday where we will head out to Belmont Park and Pimlico.

“America’s Day at the Races” on FS2 will be televised today from 1:00 to 3:00 and 4:00 to 5:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager . In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Pimlico.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday as well as my Preakness Stakes Day report.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Clm $35,000N3L

• #9 Turn of Events 4-1
• #8 Boru 7-5
• #1 The Last Zip / 1a Rhythm Section 5-2
• #3 Mo Gotcha 5-1

Analysis: Turn of Events ships up from Gulfstream Park where last out the colt stalked the early pace after getting off a beat slow and did not have enough punch left late in a fifth-place finish against $35,000 starter allowance company over good ground. Five have come out of that race to run back and while none won three did finish in the money in their next starts. This guy's last win came over the grass here last October where he beat $40,000 non-winners of two in a game head win. He looks well spotted here back in for a tag here and the 4-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Boru invades from the west coast for the Cerin barn. The gelding tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish at this level, beaten 1 3/4 lengths. He beat $25,000 non-winners of two at Santa Anita two back off a log layoff. He makes his third start off the bench and picks up Irad. He figures to be a major threat here but is going to end up a short price.

PIMLICO RACE 6 ANALYSIS (3:25 P.M. ET)

Race 6 Md $10,000

• #10 Pat's Factor 5-1
• #8 Union Charm 7-2
• #2 Always Biz 5-1
• #4 Royalian 10-1

Analysis: Pat's Factor pressed the early pace, came around the far turn part of a three way duel and bore out carrying a foe with him and dumping the bug. This guy was fourth two back in his first trip around two turns and three back going a one turn mile was a game second, beaten just half-length. He gets a key jock switch here from the bug to Ruiz and is in good hands with the Capuano barn. He bounces back here and picks up his diploma and seems likely to get bet down off that 5-1 morning line.

Union Charm tracked the early pace and finished up well in a runner up finish last out for this tag, unable to get to the winner. The third-place finisher Not Telling came back to break his maiden in his next outing on April 8. The DePaz trainee has enough pedigree to handle two turns and since landing with the former Pletcher assistant this guy seems to be heading in the right direction form wise.

BELMONT PARK 7 ANALYSIS (4:08 P.M. ET)

Race 7 OClm $80,000N1X

• #7 Public Sector 7-2
• #8 Colton's Command 5-2
• #6 Finding Freedom 9-2
• #2 Restored Order 8-1

Analysis: Public Sector makes his first start since a well beaten 12th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) where he was sent off at 8-1. He was caught in between foes coming down the stretch for the first time, saved ground much of the trip and had nothing left in the stretch. He came into the race off a smart looking maiden win and then a slid second in the Pilgrim (G2) where he was only beaten two lengths by Fire At Will. He returns with lasix added for Brown who is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61–180-day break. He finds a good shot for his return and this is the runner Irad lands on.

Colton's Command was a good looking maiden winner in his debut at Gulfstream Park going a mile. Sent off at 7-2 in a field of 12 he raced mid pack, came with a four wide bid and swept by the field, drawing clear to win by 3 3/4 lengths with a little something left in the tank. Five runners have come out of the race to run back and two were next out maiden winners. This guy earned the top last out speed fig, and it is tough to knock anything Mott has been sending out recently.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

• R2: #1 Bears Mafia 8-1
• R6: #4 Time to Testify 8-1
• R7: #2 Restored Order 8-1
• R9: #9 Wilton 8-1
• R9: #7 Orders 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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