Saturday’s Picks from Belmont and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Who is up for a 10-hour day playing the pones?

Frist post at Belmont Park this afternoon is 1:00 ET and the finale at Churchill Downs comes at 11:10 ET, so it is going to be a long day of wagering action.

Actually, my Best Plays includes five races from Churchill Downs, the last being the ninth race, which is the $110,000 Keertana, a 1 ½ mile turf marathon that will go off at 10:11 ET.

The race drew a competitive field of 10 with Delta’s Kingdom the 5-2 morning line favorite. The mare was the runner up in the Bewitch (G3) in her last outing.

The co-feature on the card is the $150,000 Winning Colors (G3) which goes off as the fifth race and drew a field of six fillies and mares that will go six furlongs on the main track.

Frank’s Rockette is the 6-5 morning line favorite but she just has not looked as quick as she did last year where she won five of her seven career starts. The next best option is Sconsin (8-5) who is coming off a slid second in the Derby City Distaff (G1) in her last start.

The feature at Belmont Park this afternoon is the $100,000 Seek Again which drew a field of eight that will go one mile on the turf. I landed on the morning line favorite Flavius (2-1) for the Chad Brown barn.

The six-year-old was fourth in the Frank Kilroe (G1) at Santa Anta in his last outing. He is capable of better and will need to run down the likely pacesetter Get Smokin who seems likely to bounce back with a better effort than we saw out of him last out.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 today 1:00 to 3:00 ET and 4:00 to 11:30 with the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs.  TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday as well as my Belmont Stakes Day reports.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Clm $16,000

• #6 Miss Liana   8-1
• #3 Miss Mi Mi   6-5
• #1 Saratoga Beauty   3-1
• #4 Sweet Mia   9-2

Analysis: Miss Liana drops a notch in class here after pressing the early pace and tiring to finish seventh last out against $20,000 foes. She was claimed out of the race by the Quick barn that is 12% winners first off the claim dating back five years. Two back this gal wired the field to win for this tag while in the Sciacca barn. She picks up Carmouche and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. She just may be able to shake loose early and the 8-1 morning line looks fair enough to give her a good look here in the opener.

Miss Mi Mi tracked the early pace and drew off smartly to beat $12,500 claimers last out at 6-5. She was claimed out of the race by the Weaver barn that does not hit the claim box often, just 4 for 20 (with a +ROI) dating back five years. She steps up a notch here but she looks very capable of winning right back here although her price may end up on the short side with Irad sticking. 

BELMONT PARK 9 ANALYSIS (5:12 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Seek Again

• #10 Flavius   2-1
• #5 Get Smokin   5-1
• #7 Decorated Invader   5-2
• #6 Delaware   4-1

Analysis: Flavius came up short in the stretch against a solid group in the Frank Kilroe (G1) last out at Santa Anita, checking in fourth and beaten a length It was his first start of the year after winning one of four outings last year. He won the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs last September with a career top speed figure. He then was a troubled fifth in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) and a game second in the Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) before hitting the bench for a short break.  Out of the Kilroe the fifth-place finisher Royal Ship came back to win the Californian (G2) at Santa Anita on April 17 and the sixth-place finisher Casa Creed won the Elusive Quality here on April 24. The runner up in the Kilroe was Smooth Like Strait who was beaten just a neck in a third-place finish in the Old Forrester Turf Classic (G1) on Derby Day. Castellano picks up the call for Brown and this six-year-old looks capable of moving forward off his last effort and getting the job done here as the likely favorite.

Get Smokin was smoked last out, getting caught up in a speed duel in the Makers Mark Mile (G1) and fading to finish a well beaten eighth. Two back he prompted the early pace and won the Tampa Bay (G3) in his first start this year. He won the Hill Prince (G2) over yielding turf here last year in his lone win in eight trips. There is not as much early zip signed up here and this guy has a shot of taking this field gate to wire and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough. He is better than he showed last out.

Decorated Invader is coming of a third-place finish in the Danger’s Hour last out for the Clement barn. The colt tracked the early pace while saving ground, tipped off the rail and got stuck behind foes and then finished up well when getting clear late. He was beaten a head here last fall in the Hill Prince behind our second choice. Last year he won the Penine Ridge (G2) over the turf here and then went to the Spa and won the Hall of Fame (G2). He makes his second start off a 4 ½ month break here for Clement who is 19% winners with runners making their second start off a 45–180-day break. 

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 4 ANALYSIS (7:26 P.M. ET)

Race 4 Md $75,000

• #3 Sum Kinda Pretty   5-1
• #9 Never Content   9-2
• #2 Lipstikliesnlovers   7-2
• #7 Suki   4-1

Analysis: Sum Kinda Pretty was sixth in her debut on turf at Fair Grounds back in March, a race in which three have exited to graduate next out. last out she caught slop in a race taken off the turf and was no match for a 9 1/2 length winner in a third-place finish. back on turf here for Stall who is having a solid meet. This gal is out of a Matty G mare that has dropped a pair of winners including one turf winner. She fits well here with the class drop in for a tag.

Never Content drops in for a tag for the first time here for Maker as she makes her sixth career start. last out she dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fifth over good ground at Keeneland going nine furlongs. She was fifth and fourth in her two previous starts, both behind next out winners. The cut back in distance e will suit her. She is out of a Dubawi mare that has dropped three other runners including a pair of turf winners. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R1: #6 Miss Liana   8-1
• R2: #1 America’s Justice   8-1
• R4: #4 Saratoga Affair   8-1
• R5: #4 Irish Giant   8-1
• R6: #3 Jack’s Dream   10-1
• R7: #5 Legit   10-1
• #9 Here Comes Doc   12-1
• R8: #3 Laura’s Bellamy   8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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