Saturday’s Picks From Belmont Park and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

With a two-day carryover in the Pick 6 heading into Friday at Belmont Park, the wager returned $11,440.50 to those that solved it and the consolation of 5 of 6 paid back $84.00.

Forest Spirit got the Pick 6 off to a good start, the gelding returning $16.60 as my top pick. Unfortunately my fourth choice won the next two races, Canarsie Angel ($8.30) and Just Ok Is Not Ok ($16.00).

My third choice Don’t Call Me Mary returned $9.10 in the fourth leg, then my top picks won the final two, Shamrocket ($4.70) and Portfolio Hedge ($4.70).

It is on to Saturday, and we will pull a double with first post at Belmont Park coming at 1:00 ET and the first race at Churchill Downs will be at 6:00 ET. My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs.

The feature at Belmont Park is the $100,000 Dancin Renee which drew a field of six state bred fillies and mares that will travel six furlongs on the main track. The Rob Atras trained Sadie Lady is the 2-1 morning line favorite. She is coming off a runner up finish in the Vagrancy Handicap (G3) and returns to the state bred level.

I went looking for more value and landed on Fierce Lady, a good looking winner against second level state bred optional claimers in her last outing, which was her first start off nearly a six-month layoff. About 5 ½ hours later we have the feature at Churchill Downs with a field of 11 going in the $150,000 Mint Julep (G3) at 1 1/16 miles on turf.

Juliet Foxtrot is the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Brad Cox barn. She won the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland in her last outing and looks imposing. However, if she gets hooked early it could.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 today 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET with the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager . In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Saturday  click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L

• #8 Iova 7-2
• #6 Tenderness 3-1
• #1 Predetemined 5-2
• #2 Hey It's Tati 8-1

Analysis: Iova returns off a 4 1/2-month break and drops in for $16,000 for the DePaz barn. She stalked the early pace while wide and weakened to finish fifth last out against state bred Alw-1 optional claimers. She graduated two back for a $40,000 tag at 24-1 and three she beat that day came back to graduate in their next outings. The former Pletcher assistant is 9% winners with runners coming back off a 61–180-day break. She drops into a good spot here and will appreciate the cut back to six furlongs.

BELMONT PARK 8 ANALYSIS (4:40 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 8 The Dancin Renee

• #1 Fierce Lady 6-1
• #3 Good Credence 5-2
• #5 Sadie Lady 2-1
• #6 Espresso Shot 7-2

Analysis: Fierce Lady came back off a nearly a six-month layoff with a sharp win against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers, her first win since winning the state bred Seeking the Ante back in 2019. This gal came up short seven times last year, the last five while in the RRod barn. The time off and switch to the capable Russell barn seems to have this filly back on track. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and draws the rail. She should be sitting just off the pace or might even get to the lead with an alert break. The barn is 21% winners with runners making their second start off a 45–180-day break. She picks up Saez who was aboard her for a couple of starts last year. Her career best speed fig came in her debut over the main track here. She looks capable of moving forward second off the shelf and the 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Good Credence came off a 5 ½ month layoff last out with a solid runner up finish in the state bred Critical Eye going a mile in the mud. She was nine lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. It was her first start since a fourth in the Rampart (G3) at Gulfstream Park going a mile. The winner Letruska has won three times since including a pair of Grade 1 races. The cut back to a sprint should suit this gal. Her last win came three back at seven furlongs where she beat state bred Alw-2 company over the main track here. The trainer is 24% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a 45–180-day break.

Sadie Lady is back with New York breds after setting the early fractions and was unable to hold off the winner in a runner up finish in the Vagrancy ‘Cap (G3) going 6 ½ furlongs here. The winner Victim of Love was a disappointing fifth in the Bed of Roses (G3) in her next outing on June 4. The Atras trainee took the field gate to wire to win the Correction two back, holding on to win by a head in her first go off a three-month break. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and will appreciate the return to the state bred ranks, but the price is likely going to end up on the light side.

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 6 ANALYSIS (10:11 P.M. ET)

CD Race 9 The Mint Julep G3

• #1 Mintd 12-1
• #2 Juliet Foxtrot 6-5
• #9 Crystal Ball 6-1
• #8 Tuned 12-1

Analysis: Mintd won her U.S. at Tampa Bay Downs last March beating Alw-1 foes and looked headed in the right direction, making a mild late run to finish fourth in the Ellis Park Turf last July. She had to hit the bench and came back with a smart looking win versus Alw-2 company here over good ground. The mare made a good late rally and drew clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths. She should get an honest pace in front of her, and she still has the look of a runner that may still have some upside. I like Santana getting back on board and the price will be right..

Juliet Foxtrot came back off a 4 1/2-month break by winning the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland. The fifth-place finisher Maxim Rate came out of that race to win the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita in her next outing. That is a race Juliet Foxtrot was pointing toward but the trainer did not like the way things were going and kept her in Louisville for this easier spot. She ran sixth in this race last year as the beaten favorite over firm ground. She handled ground with some give to it really well and that likely will be the case today. The main knock is her price which is going to be on the short side..

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager.

Belmont Park

• R1: #2 Hey It’s Tati 8-1
• R5: #6 Durkin’s Call 8-1
• R5: #3 Too Early 8-1
• R6: #3 Overlook Road 8-1
• R7: #7 Halo City 10-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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