Sunday’s Picks from Belmont and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

After Saturday where the first race at Belmont Park went off at 1:00 ET and the last race at Churchill Downs more than nine hours later, it will be a much shorter day on Sunday.

In the Dancing Renee at Belmont Park on Saturday my top pick Fierce Lady got bet down from her 6-1 morning line with the scratch of Good Credence. She could not get to my second choice Sadie Lady in deep stretch, the $2 exacta returning $10.60.

We have no stakes on Sunday at either Belmont Park or Churchill Downs, but I like both cards and the early Pick 5 at Belmont Park will get my attention.

The morning line favorite is not my top pick in any of the five races of the sequence and I have a pair of 15-1 live longshots. If we can get at least one of them home, we could be looking at a nice pay day.

The late Pick 5 may end up offering some good value as well. I do like two horses in the sequence that might end up the favorites. Barista Vixen (3-1) in the seventh and Kalifornia Queen (2-1) in the eighth look tough, but the other three races in the sequence are ripe for prices.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 today from 12:30 to 5:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs.  TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Stakes Day and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start: 

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $30,000

• #6 Spun for Lu Lu   15-1
• #8 Stormi Cat Lady   7-2
• #1 Scott Alaia   6-1
• #2 Gallina   3-1               

Analysis: Spun for Lu Lu has been beaten double digit lengths in her first two career starts, but she drops in for a tag here and will catch a fast dirt surface. She was in the slop in her debut where she was a well beaten eighth and then did not take to turf in a 12th place finish. She adds blinkers and put in a bullet breeze on June 8. Kimmel has cooled off at the meet (2 for 36) after being on a nice roll the first few months of the year and is still hitting at a 18% clip overall. She is bred more for dirt, by Hard Spun out of a Street Cry mare, this her first foal to race. The barn is 23% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming and the filly should be a decent price in this spot.

Stormi Cat Lady has come up shot 10 times and has landed in the money in six of those outings. She was not a threat on turf last out and is now back on the main track for the Schosberg barn. Her last was just her second start for a tag and first since a third in her debut. She ran second three and four back at Aqueduct versus tougher and fits here while picking up Rosario.  

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 5 ANALYSIS (2:46 P.M. ET)

Race 5 Md Sp Wt

• #5 In Effect   5-1
• #3 American Diamond   5-1
• #12 National Road   4-1
• #10 My Favorite Uncle   6-1

Analysis: In Effect makes his second start off the bench here for the Sisterton barn. The colt ran okay in two starts last year, a fourth in his debut and a fifth in his second career outing. last out off the bench the colt was off poorly, raced wide much of the trip and finished evenly in a sixth-place finish here at a mile. The third-place finisher Performing Arts came back to graduate in his next outing on June 5 here. The colt drops in for a tag and should move forward off his last effort for an underrated barn. He is out of a Quiet American mare that has dropped two other foals to race both winners including one turf winner.

American Diamond takes the hood off as he drops in for a tag for the first time here in his fourth career outing. He was fourth in his debut, showed some improvement with a third second out at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. Last out at Keeneland over good ground he dueled for the early lead and tired to finish 10th. With Leparoux up he figures to sit off the pace here. He is out of a Giant's Causeway mare that ash dropped four winners and three have won on turf. Casse is 16% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. 

BELMONT PARK 7 ANALYSIS (4:08 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Alw $40,000s

• #8 Barista Vixen   3-1
• #5 Master of Hope   10-1
• #7 Cadeau de Paix   4-1
• #4 Honey Money   7-2

Analysis: Barista Vixen tracked the early pace, took over the lead and went on to a sharp win versus $35,000 non-winners of three last out, winning by nearly five lengths going 6 1/2 on the main track here. He was making his first start for Potts who claimed him out of a win two back against $25,000 non-winners of two. He was claimed again last out, today going for the Gargan barn that is 42% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He shows up protected here and owns a solid pace rile throughout. The cut back from a mile suited this guy and he looks capable of winning right back.

Master of Hope was bumped and taken up at the break and while he did get off next to last it was not much. he came with a good late rally while wide, getting in late but drawing clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths over $30,000 non-winners of two. She was making her first start off a 11-month layoff for the Nevin barn. She was claimed out of the race by the Noda barn that is 16% winners first off the claim. She should move forward second off the bench and the 10-1 morning line generous for a barn sending out live runners at the meet. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

Belmont Park

• R1: #6 Spun for Lu Lu   15-1
• R4: #3 Yankee Empire   15-1
• R6: #9 Noble Emotion   8-1
• R7: #5 Master of Hope   10-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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