Saturday’s Picks from Belmont and Santa Anita

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Belmont Park is putting on an outstanding 10-race card on Saturday with a pair of New York Stallion Series races that both drew large and competitive fields.

There were scattered thunderstorms overnight into the morning at Churchill Downs so I though it might be better to head out to Santa Anita where there is an 11-race card with four stakes. My Best Plays Report for Saturday consists of my 10 strongest plays from Belmont Park and Santa Anita.

As an added bonus there is a $62,06 Pick 6 carryover at Belmont Park. Friday’s sequence started off with the winners paying $6.10, $7.20 and $6.70.

The first longshot was Diva Banker who returned $25.40, then Scuttlebuzz got home as the favorite in the eighth race paying $5.60.

In the nightcap Ballydooley took the field gate to wire and paid $63.50, triggering the carryover. Remember the Pick 6 at Belmont is not a Jackpot wager and has a $1 increment.

It is a very tough sequence this afternoon with several large and competitive fields including the two stakes. It will be tough not to take a stab at it, but I am not going to pass on the early and late Pick 5’s.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 today from 12:30 to 6:00 ET with the action from Belmont Park. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L

• #8 Joqular   9-2
• #4 Giggle Factory   7-2
• #2 Sengekontacket   3-1
• #5 Double Happiness   6-1

Analysis: Joqular stretches back out to a route of ground after a good third last out going seven furlongs against $40,000 non-winners of two last out here as the beaten favorite. She broke her maiden in the slop in a race taken off the turf but has shown in her last two starts she can handle grass. She is bred to go long and Castellano sticks for the Morley barn. After being a bit short on price last out the 9-2 morning line looks fair enough in this spot.

Giggle Factory is making her first start since January for the Albertrani barn that is on the light side with layoff types, hitting at just a 5% clip with stock coming back off a 61–180-day break. This gal broke her maiden over the grass here three back against $40,000 foes. She was a solid second in her first trip against winners behind repeat winner Lido Key and was fifth last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes, running into another next out winner. She catches a good spot for her return off the break and she faced a bit tougher in her first two tries versus winners. 

BELMONT PARK 6 ANALYSIS (3:34 P.M. ET)

Race 6 The NY Stallion Cupecoy's Joy

• #5 Funwhileitlasted   12-1
• #10 Ava's Grace   5-2
• #6 Big Time Lady   10-1
• #1 Show Me the Honey   8-1

Analysis: Funwhileitlasted is cutting back to seven furlongs for her second start off a four-month break. Last out at Gulfstream Park she tracked the early pace and made a mild late bid to finish third, beaten 3 ¾ lengths for the top spot against $35,000 starter optional claimers. The winner Sunshine City came back to run a good second at the same level in her next outing while the sixth-place finisher was a next out winner. The Sweezey trainee broke her maiden against $25,000 maiden claimers at Gulfstream Park West last November and after falling in her first trip against winners she rebounded with a solid second versus Alw-1 optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs in January. She gets a jock upgrade to Lezcano and looks capable of moving forward second off the bench. She has shown enough tactical speed to handle seven panels and the 12-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Ava’s Grace returns off a 2 ½ month beak after setting the early fractions and was unable to hold off the winner in a runner up finish in the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park going two turns on the main track. The connections were pointing her toward the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but she was sidelined with a minor injury and returns here making her turf debut. Not a real exciting turf pedigree, by Laoban out of an Out of Place mare that has dropped five winners but no turf winners. One of her foals did run second on turf and another has a couple of thirds. The Diodoro barn is 26% winners overall in turf sprints. She has worked quickly for her return of the short break and if she takes to the grass, she may trounce this group, but seems likely to be less than her 5-2 morning line.

Big Time Lady has shown speed and then tired in her two starts since coming back off a five-month layoff. She did break her maiden over the turf here at seven furlongs and then was a decent third in the Tepin over good ground going 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct. She brings some speed here and the cut back to seven furlongs should suit her. Three of her sibs have also won on turf. Johnny V. picks up the call as she makes her third start off the bench here for the RRod barn. She looks capable of moving forward off her last couple of starts and is going to end up a decent price in this spot. 

SANTA ANITA RACE 3 ANALYSIS (4:06 P.M. ET)

Race 3 The Siren Lure

• #7 Chasin Munny   5-2
• #1 Kanderel   4-1
• #4 Texas Wedge   2-1
• #6 Tilted Towers   8-1               

Analysis: Chasin Munny pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fifth last out against non-conditioned allowance foes going six furlongs on the grass here. The runner up Bombard came back to win the Daytona (G3) in his next outing. Two back at today's distance this guy took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in his second start off a long layoff. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers but does not need the lead and breaking from the outside should be able to work out a good trip.

Kanderel is coming off a sharp win versus Alw-2 optional claimers last out here off a three-month break. The gelding stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to beat a couple of foes he faces again today. It was his first turf sprint since last May. The Mandella trainee looks capable of moving forward off that effort and should get an honest pace to run at here. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R3: #1 Malibu Mischief   8-1
• R5: #3 Sicilla Mike   8-1
• R6: #5 Funwhileitlasted   12-1
• R6: #6 Big Time Lady   10-1
• R7: #3 Clear Vision   8-1
• R8: #2 Wicked Indeed   8-1
• R9: #11 Hold the Salsa   10-1
• R9: #12 It’s Grave   12-1
• R10: #2 Ob La Di   8-1
• R10: #7 Tootsie Song   8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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