Friday’s Picks from Belmont Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

I honestly cannot remember the last time I was knocked out of the early Pick 5, and both Pick 4’s after the first leg at Belmont Park, but it happened yesterday.

I failed to come up with longshot Jasminesque in the opener, who returned $30.80. That knocked me out of the early Pick 5 and then in the second race, Firing Carol who was the biggest price in the field passed them all in the stretch and returned $41.80 to win, wiping out my Pick 4 tickets.

The Late Pick 5 started chalky with Regal Speaker, and I failed to use Theodora Grace in the sixth race, who was bet down from a 6-1 morning line and paid $7.30.

The early Pick 5 paid $17,831.50 for .50 cents.

The day left me questioning my career choices, but we are back in action this afternoon and the 1:00 post time cannot come too soon.

I am not seeing an abundance of live longshots for today but there are enough favorites that look vulnerable I am confident we can bounce back with a much better day.

We have a big day coming up on Saturday with a couple of Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races at Churchill Downs and the feature at Belmont Park is the $250,000 Mother Goose (G2) which unfortunately drew a small field of five three-year-old fillies.

The Chad Brown trained Always Carina is the even money favorite on the morning line. She has won for fun in her first two starts and makes her stakes debut.

She faces a couple of accomplished fillies in Clairiere (9-5), who was fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) in her last outing and Make Mischief, who was third in the Acorn (G1) in her last start.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 today 12:30 to 6:00 ET with the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Friday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #2 Popular Vote 3-1
• #3 Arrogant Lady 4-1
• #5 Inerstatedaydream 9-5
• #6 Miss Interpret 5-2

Analysis: Popular Vote is a $725,000 Keeneland purchase making her debut for the Mott barn that is 14% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. This gal is by Constitution out of a Candy Ride mare that has dropped three foals to race, all winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Hog Creek Hustle ($774,446). A couple of good gate drills on the morning tab. He looks ready to go at first asking.

Arrogant Lady debuts for the Clement barn that is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. This gal was a $300,000 Keeneland purchase, by Arrogate out of the stakes winner Maple Forest ($277,066) who has dropped two runners, both winners, top earner stakes winner Heartwood ($486,891). Solid works on the morning tab.

BELMONT PARK 6 ANALYSIS (3:34 P.M. ET)

Race 6 Md Sp Wt

• #8 No Payne 4-1
• #11 Kreesa La Wrote 7-2
• #12 Empress of War 5-1
• #4 Get the Candy 4-1

Analysis: No Payne pressed the early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth last out in her first go off a four-month break. The winner Runaway Rumour came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes in her next start on June 5 here. The Handal trainee showed some ability with a game runner up finish in her second career start last November at the Big A. She should move forward enough second off the break to get the job done here. She is out of a Giant's Causeway mare that has dropped four other runners including a pair of turf winners.

Kreesa La Wrote is cutting back from a mile where last out she stalked the early pace and tired to finish seventh. Twp back she ran second behind repeat winner Runaway Rumour and ahead of our top pick. She made a good late run to finish third last November going six furlongs on turf at Aqueduct.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R5: #3 Unexpected 8-1
• R7: #6 Shanghaischool 10-1
• R9: #7 Our Troubadour 10-1
• R9: #12 Doctor K 12-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

More from VegasInsider Staff