Thursday’s Picks from Belmont Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

We are back in action on Thursday at Belmont Park and we are also back to a 1:00 ET first post after starting at 3:05 the past few weeks.

We race right through Monday for the holiday weekend and there are six stakes between Saturday and Monday including a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races.

The $400,000 Suburban (G2) winner earns a starting berth for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Sunday’s $250,000 John A Nerud (G2) winner earns a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

The $350,000 Princess Rooney Invitational (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).

We are just 127 days away from the start of the Breeders’ Cup which will be held at Del Mar this year on Nov. 6-7.

We are now in July so the countdown to Saratoga has begun. Opening Day at the Spa is Thursday July 15. The opening day features are the $150,000 Schuylerville (G3) and the $120,000 Quick Call (G3).

The 2021 summer meet, which will offer at least one stakes race every racing day, will be highlighted by the $1.25 million Travers (G1) on August 28 and the $1 million Whitney (G1) on August 7.

With the exception of Travers Day, Whitney Day and closing weekend, first post on live race days will be 1:05 p.m.

The Spa meet will feature 76 stakes worth $21.5 million in total purses. The summer meet will open Thursday, July 15, and conclude Monday, September 6.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 today 1:00 to 5:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park.  TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Thursday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start: 

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Clm $10,000

• #5 Lovely Lady Lexi   5-2
• #2 Excess Capacity   1-1
• #4 Persian Queen   8-1
• #3 Mongolian Humor   3-1               

Analysis: Lovely Lady Lexi tracked the early pace while down along a deep rail, angled out three wide for the stretch drive and finished evenly in a third-place finish against $12,500 foes. She was making her first start off the claim by the Bruce Brown barn who took her for $12,500 two back out of a fifth-place finish. She drops a notch in class here and she has a couple of seconds in three trips on wet tracks so won't mind if we get a little rain which is in the forecast today. Saez sticks and she should get a good trip chasing the chalk and gets an extra half furlong here at 6 1/2 to run her down late.

Excess Capacity set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth in the Sis City last out going a mile in her first start off the claim by the Rice barn. That race was a starter stake for runners that had started for a claiming tag of $16,000. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of that race to win next out. Two back this gal beat $16,000 foes at Aqueduct while in the care of the Levine barn. She looks well spotted dropping back in for a tag here and cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs. She has run pretty well on wet tracks as well. 

BELMONT PARK 6 ANALYSIS (5:43 P.M. ET)

Race 6 Md $50,000 (3:34 ET)

• #8 Evidence Based   2-1
• #2 Little Nutter   8-1
• #7 Know How   7-2
• #6 Adele Kat   3-1               

Analysis: Evidence Based drops in for a tag in her second career start here for the Brown barn. In her debut at Churchill Downs going a mile the filly drew a tough spot, was off slow and not a threat in a 10th place finish, beaten five lengths. Four have come out of that race to win next out including the winner Demodog who came back to beat Alw-1 company in her next outing on June 25. The $375,000 Keeneland purchase adds blinkers, and this gal should show more with a race under her belt for Brown who is 25% winners with second out maidens. She is by More Than Ready and the first foal to race out of a Danehill Dancer mare.

Little Nutter has come up short 11 timers, landing second twice and third once. Last out she stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish going six furlongs, cutting back from a route. She makes her second start off the claim and this gal figures to show ore here in her second start after getting taken from a low % outfit using a couple of low % jocks. She has a couple of sibs that have won on grass, and this is just her fourth start for a tag. Decent value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R1: #4 Persian Queen   8-1
• R2: #10 Jack’s Dream   8-1
• R6: #2 Little Nutter   8-1
• R9: #9 Value Chain   8-1
• R9: #7 Prince of Caps   8-1 

VegasInsider Staff

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