Saturday’s Picks from Belmont and Gulfstream Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

We have a pair of stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday afternoon but they both appear likely to come up on the chalky side.

The $100,000 Perfect Sting drew a field of seven if we stay on the grass and there is some rain in the forecast. The Chad Brown trained Viadera is the 4-5 morning line favorite and makes her first start since winning the Matriarc (G1) at Del Mar last November. She has handled ground with some give to it and despite the light price gets the call.

The $400,000 Suburban (G2) closes out the card and will be televised on NBC. The race is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

It is an intriguing rematch between Happy Saver (6-5) and Mystic Guide (1-1), but not much of a betting race with just six lining up.

Happy Saver got the best of his main foe when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last fall. He comes into the race with a perfect record in five starts.

Mystic Guide bounced out of his defeat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to win the Razorback Handicap (G1) and the Dubai World Cup (G1).

The remainder of the card looks very playable as long as we stick on the turf this afternoon.

I usually do not head to Gulfstream Park after April but there is a good card on tap today featuring a pair of stakes that drew competitive fields—the $200,000 Smile Sprint Invitational (G3) and the $350,000 Princess Rooney Invitational (G2). The latter offers up a fee-expenses paid trip to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) to the winner.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes 11 races from Belmont Park and Gulfstream Park.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS1 from 1:00 to 3:30 ET, and 3:30 to 5:00 on FS2 with the action from Belmont Park. The Suburban will be televised on NBC during a one-hour Breeders’ Cup Challenge broadcast at 5:00 ET.

TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Md $40,000

• #8 Home for Christmas 6-1
• #3 Mondeuse 7-2
• #1 Belle Principessa / 1a To the Tune 7-2
• #7 Sweet Franny Lu 3-1

Analysis: Home for Christmas drops in for a tag for her first start since last December. She was badly outrun last out on the main track after two tries on turf, an eighth in her debut and a fifth second out. She returns with lasix for the Clement barn that is 32% winners (with a +ROI) dropping runners form maiden special to maiden claiming. She is out of a Latent Heat mare that has dropped two other foals to race with one dirt winner. Not a bad off track pedigree if this comes off the turf.

Mondeuse tries a route for the first time last out and he nearly took the field gate to wire, getting nailed at the wire to come up a nose short. She had run third in her three previous outings, each at six furlongs on turf. She draws the rail here and here is not a ton of early zip signed up to go here. She is out of a Hold That Tiger mare that has dropped three winners and two have won on turf. She looks headed in the right direction and the stretch out suited her.

BELMONT PARK 8 ANALYSIS (4:40 P.M. ET)

Race 8 OClm $80,000N1X

• #3 Wolfie's Dynaghost 6-1
• #7 Space Launch 5-2
• #2 Mira Mission 4-1
• #5 Sifting Sands 8-1

Analysis: Wolfie's Dynaghost tries grass (we hope) for the first time here in his third career start. He earned a solid number breaking his maiden in his debut for the Albertrani barn that does not win first out that often. He came back in a tough spot off the bench in the Peter Pan (G3) last out where he set the early fractions and weakened to finish fifth. He returns with lasix here and he is out of a Dynaformer mare that has dropped four other winners and they have all won on turf including G1 turf stakes winner Sadler's Joy ($2.57 million). Saez picks up the call and this guy should end up a fair price.

Space Launch broke his maiden on turf in his debut last September over the turf here and then ran well in a third-place finish in the Award over yielding ground. Last out off a six-month layoff he checked in third at this level over firm ground. The runner up in that race was Public Sector who came back to win at this level in his next start on June 4 here. He is in good hands with Clement and Rosario sticks. He should move forward off his return effort and showed two back he can handle ground with some give to it.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 11 ANALYSIS (5:35 P.M. ET)

Race 11 The Princess Rooney Inv. G2

• #5 Ce Ce 3-1
• #8 Sound Machine 12-1
• #1 Estilo Talentoso 5-2
• #6 Laura's Light 7-2

Analysis: Ce Ce cuts back to one turn here after the mare tracked thee early pace and came up short in the stretch in a fourth-place finish in the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita. The mare came off a five month break two back at seven furlongs and was a sharp winner over $62,500 optional claimers. She won three of her seven starts last year including a pair of Grade 1 races—the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita and the Apple Blossom Handicap, both going two turns. She has worked sharply since her last outing for McCarthy who is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. Espinoza is in to ride this gal again and she has enough tactical speed to handle the cut back. She looks to be sitting on a top effort here third off the bench.

Sound Machine is coming off a victory in the Florida bred Musical Romance last out at 6 ½ furlongs. The speed figure is coming up on the light side but the runner up and fourth place finisher both exited that race to beat optional claimers in their next starts and their Beyers increased by eight points each. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers, and she has run well over the main track here landing in the exacta in 6 of 10 trips. Among those was a runner up finish in the Hurricane Bertie (G3) and a win in the Glitter Woman. She is in good hands with the Joseph barn that has been live at the meet, hitting at a 30% clip and her 12-1 morning line in this spot looks more than fair.

Estilo Talentoso is coming off a game win in the Bed of Roses (G3) last out in the slop at Belmont Park at seven furlongs. It was her first win at today’s distance in seven trips, five of those runner up finishes. She stalked the early pace, came with an even wide bid and edged Lake Avenue by a neck. She earned career tops two and three back, first with a runner up finish in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland and then a third in the Derby City Distaff (G1). The latter was won by Gamine and the runner up and fourth place finishers came out of that race to win stakes next out. She owns the edge in late pace numbers and should get some pace to run at. She has not missed landing in the money in her 14 career starts but does have a habit of landing for minor shares.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R2: #4 Perfect Symphony 8-1
• R2: #1 Up for Adventure 12-1
• R3: #6 Bingo John 8-1
• R4: #8 Doublepour 12-1
• R6: #9 Chocolate Bar 8-1
• R7: 32 Vineyard Sound 8-1
• R8: #5 Sifting Sands 8-1
• R9: #7 Madita 8-1
• R10: #5 Max Player 10-1
• R10: #3 Prioritize 12-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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