Sunday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

My head is still spinning from Saturday at Saratoga, led by Malathaat getting beat in the CCA Oaks (G1) at 1-5.

Maracuja pulled off the upset under a crafty ride from Ricardo Santana Jr as the longest price in the field of four, paying $31.40 and closing out an early Pick 5 that returned $30,146.50 on a $.50 cent ticket.

The Late Pick 5 got underway in the seventh race and my Live Longshot Sifting Sands pulled off the upset returning $58.00. Despite being my fourth choice in the race the colt was on about half of my tickets and I was feeling pretty good.

My tickets were reduced to two after my fourth choice Rastafara won the eighth at $7.10. My top pick won the ninth, Caramel Swirl going off as the favorite and paying $4.30.

I was two deep in the Caress, with Robin Sparkles and In Good Spirits on my remaining tickets, and it was Caravel that came calling late, paying $4.00. I had used Caravel on some of my tickets, just not the ones I had left live.

That proved costly as my top pick won the nightcap, Mike’s Girl paying $19.00 and the Pick 5 came back at a hefty $7,606.25.

To add insult to injury the runner up in the nightcap was Cara’s Dreamer at 17-1 who I did not use in my exactas and trifectas.

The day ended with my top pick Karakatsie in the Eddie Read (G2) at Del Mar getting bottled up and shut off in the stretch at 9-1 and settling for fourth.

We had some bright spots for sure, but overall it felt like we lost every photo, witnessed some questionable rides and just did not take full advantage of any good opinions I had.

On the bright side we get to do it all over again today.

“Saratoga Live” is on FS2 (and streaming on YouTube) from 1:00 to 2:00 ET, on FS1 from 2:00 to 3:00 and back on FS2 from 3:00 to 6:30. Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Sunday click here .

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 1 ANALYSIS (1:05 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #6 Tap N Glo 3-1
• #4 Tout Ensemble 7-2
• #2 Trade Secret 2-1
• #5 Shanghai Essence 10-1

Analysis: Tap N Glo made her debut at Ellis Park here she was sent off as the chalk. She stalked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up fish, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot behind a Mott first timers. The Cox barn is 31% winners with second out maidens. She is by Tapiture out of an Awesome Again mare that has dropped three other runners with a pair of winners. This filly has a strong off track pedigree and there is some rain in the forecast.

Tout Ensemble debuts for the Brown barn that is 18% winners with first timers. The barn has started four juvie debut runners so far at the meet with a winner and a cope of seconds. This gal was a $185,000 Keeneland purchase, by Practical Joke out of a Purim mare that has dropped three foals to race, all winners. She has worked quickly in the mornings for her debut here and Irad lands on her. A solid off track pedigree and she looks ready to go for Brown who started off the meeting on the slow side but picked up two more wins on Saturday.

SARATOGA 9 ANALYSIS (5:39 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Shuvee G3

• #7 Royal Flag 5-2
• #1 Horologist 8-1
• #4 Dunbar Road 2-1
• #5 Antoinette 4-1

Analysis: Royal Flag returns off a three-month break for Brown who sends out three in here. This mare stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to just miss by a head in the Doubledogdare (G3) at Keeneland. That outing was off a 5 1/2-month break. The winner was Bonnie South who came back to run second in the Ogden Phipps (G1) and then as the beaten chalk when fifth in the Delaware Handicap (G2) in her most recent start. Our top pick won the Turnback the Alarm 'Cap (G3) two back at today's nine furlong distance. She has earned consistent numbers over her seven starts, all Beyers between 90 and 95. She has worked well since her last effort and owns a solid pace profile throughout. She should get an honest pace in front of her and this race looks as if it sets up for her. She broke her maiden in the mid and is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track which we might get today.

Horologist came back off a five-month layoff three back by winning the Top Flight but then came up short in her last two starts, a fourth in the Allaire DuPont (G3) at Pimlico and a fifth last out at Thistledown as the beaten chalk in the Lady Jacqueline which was won by Crystal Ball. This Mott trainee won 2 of 8 last year and ran a pair of triple digit Beyers including a win in the Beldame (G2) at Belmont Park last October. After going off at short prices in her last three starts she is going to offer some value here and would be no surprise to see her bounce back with a better effort here.

Dunbar Road came off a 5 1/2-month break with a fifth-place finish in the La Troien (G1) at Churchill Downs, a tough spot to come back off the bench. The winner was Shedaresthedevil who was third in the Ogden Phipps next out. The runner up Envoutante came back to win the Shawnee in her next start, then was third in the Fleur De Lis (G1). The mare has had some throat issues but has worked well since her last outing and looks likely to get back on track here. She won the 2019 Alabama (G1) over the main track here. She also is perfect in two trips on wet tracks. The main knock is the price, as the 2-1 morning line seems light facing a solid group here.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

• R1: #5 Shanghai Essence 10-1
• R2: #12 Wild William 15-1
• R4: #6 Power Up Paynter 8-1
• R6: #3 Lemieux 10-1
• R7: #4 Thief of Hearts 12-1
• R8: #7 Forty Under 10-1
• R9: #1 Horologist 8-1
• R10: #4 Crea’s Bklyn Law 10-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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