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Jul 27, 2021

Wednesday's Picks from Saratoga

Week #2 of the Saratoga meeting is in the books and top trainers Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher both bounced back with better weeks.

Pletcher started off going 1 for 15 but picked up four winners. His ROI increased from his first week at $0.28 to $1.78 and his five wins place him second in the trainer standings, tied with Steve Asmussen.

Brown went 2 for 16 opening week with a ROI of $0.71. He went 4 for 24 last week and has taken over the lead the standings with six winners. His ROI is now on the plus side at $2.48 thanks mainly to Sifting Sands who won on July 24 and paid $58.00.


The feature today is the $200,000 Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) which drew a field of nine fillies and mares that will travel six furlongs on the main track.

Bell’s the One is the 7-5 morning line favorite for the Neil Pessin barn. The mare won the Roxelana at Churchill Downs on June 19 in her last outing. She was third in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).

Her price is going to be puny so Reagan’s Edge may be worth a look if she goes off near her 6-1 morning line. The filly makes her second start of the year. Last year she showed some ability running second in the Victory Ride (G3) at Belmont Park and the Prioress (G2) over the Saratoga main track.

“Saratoga Live” is on FS2 (and streaming on YouTube) from 1:00 to 6:30 ET. Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Wednesday click here .

Here is the third race (the opener is a steeplechase and the second race I don’t care for much) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 3 ANALYSIS (2:15 P.M. ET)

 Race 3 The NY Stallion Series

  • #6 Step Dancer 2-1
  • #4 Ocala Dream 9-5
  • #1 Dreamer's Disease 8-1
  • #2 It's Gravy 12-1

Analysis: Step Dancer is one of six in here to exit the NY Stallion Spectacular Bid last out. The Tagg trainee was sent off as the 5-2 favorite, coming with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot. He broke inward and bumped a foe coming out of the gate, raced off the heels of a foe that had to steady in front of him nearing the quarterpole and finished up well when clear. He can turn the tables here and gets an extra furlong to do it. He won the Awad last fall at Belmont Park and was third in the Pilgrim (G2).

Ocala Dream was the winner last out and got a better trip than our top pick did. He was facing winners for the first time after breaking his maiden two back going 1 1/16 miles on turf at Belmont Park in his fourth career outing. The extra ground here suits him and he is in good hands with the Morley barn that is 21% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

SARATOGA 8 ANALYSIS (5:05 P.M. ET)

Race 8 Alw $103,000N1X

  • #4 Yes and Yes 6-1
  • #10 Unitedandresolute 8-1
  • #3 Big Package 3-1
  • #12 Amsden 15-1

Analysis: Yes and Yes prompted the early pace, took over the lead and got run down late in a runner up finish going seven furlong at this level. Three back this guy was a solid second and four back was beaten just a nose and a head when third. Both of those outings were at six furlongs and he ran into repeat winners in both starts. He is quick enough to handle the cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs while is having trouble getting past this condition, he earned a career top last out and is going to be a fair price in this spot.

Unitedandresolute tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out in the Dade Park Dash at Ellis Park. He was fourth at this level four back in his first start against winners and tired stakes company in his last three starts including a third three back at Keeneland in the Palisades Turf Sprint on good ground. He gets a jock upgrade to Saez for the Amoss barn that has picked up two wins from eight starters at the meet.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

  • R1: #1 Arch My Boy 10-1
  • R3: #1 Dreamer’s Disease 8-1
  • R3: #2 It’s Gravy 12-1
  • R4: #1 Cazilda Fortytales 8-1
  • R5: #2 Toga Dancer 10-1
  • R7: #3 Hungry Kitten 10-1
  • R8: #10 Unitedandresolute 8-1
  • R10: #9 Declareatruce 10-1

Good luck today!

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