Wednesday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

We enter the final week of the Saratoga meeting on Wednesday with just six racing days left, closing day coming on Labor Day.

We kick of the week with a Pick 6 carryover of $161,541 after the wager went unsolved on Sunday. There were four winners in the sequence that paid over $18 including Hail To who paid $43.60.

Today’s sequence starts with the fifth race, a $16,000 non-winners of two that drew a field of seven. We have a few live longshots in the sequence and the wager looks hittable.

The feature today is the $150,000 With Anticipation (G3), a 1 1/16-mile test on the inner turf that drew a field of seven juveniles.

The Shug McGaughey trained Limited Liability was an impressive maiden winner in his debut over good ground here at the Spa on July 31 and is the 7-5 morning line favorite.

His main foes are Coinage (6-1), who makes his first start on turf for trainer Mark Casse and Portfolio Company (9-5) who broke his maiden in his debut over the Saratoga turf on July 17 at 6-5 for trainer Chad Brown.

After today we still have nine stakes on tap over the final five days of the meeting. Coming up on Saturday we have two Breeders’ Cup Challenge races, the $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) and the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

“Saratoga Live” is on today on FS2 from 1-6:30pm (and streaming on YouTube). Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga and Best Plays Reports for Wednesday click here .

Here is the second race (the opener is a steeplechase) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 2 ANALYSIS (1:38 P.M. ET)

 SAR Race 2 Clm $12,500

• #4 Flowers for Lisa 6-1
• #2 Mubarmaj 3-5
• #3 Grit and Glory 5-1
• #1 Playwright / 1a Legit 4-1

Analysis: Flowers for Lisa came off a 2 1/2 month break last out where he tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth for this tag. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the O'Connor barn, a former assistant to the Schettino barn. Three back in February going a one turn mile this guy set the early fractions against $20,000 foes and got nailed at the wire, missing by a nose. He has three wins in his career at nine furlongs and he catches a field here void of any early zip. Here is hoping Gaffalione sends this guy early and he could shake lose and take this group gate to wire.

Mubarmaj pressed the early pace, took over the lead and finished gamely to beat $20,000 foes last out at 4-5. He beat $25,000 foes two back by 5 1/2 lengths. Pletcher looks to be trying to give this guy away and now drops him in for a $12,500 tag here. He is the obvious one to beat but not crazy about the drop or the very short price.

SARATOGA 7 ANALYSIS (4:29 P.M. ET)

SAR Race 7 Alw $90,000N1X

• #2 Athena Dancer 10-1
• #1 Jill's a Hot Mess 9-2
• #12 Highway Queen 10-1
• #6 Tis a Pity 5-1

Analysis: Athena Dancer came off an eight-month layoff last out for the Potts barn at this level. The filly was away near the back of the pack and came with a mild late run to finish fourth. She graduated on turf last November at Aqueduct in her second career start and then was outrun in a NY Stallion Series race when back on dirt and then hit the bench. Lasix is added for her second start off the bench and she picks up Gaffalione. She is out of the stakes winner Talking Treasure ($361,737) who has dropped four other turf winners. There is some early zip signed up here and this gal should be coming late at a decent price.

Jill's a Hot Mess prompted the early pace and finishes gamely to hang on to beat $40,000 starter allowance foes by a head last out on turf here. She was making her first start after landing with the Rice barn. The switch to turf seems to have given this gal a boost. She beat $30,000 non-winners of two at Belmont Park three back in her turf debut. She draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. Johnny V looks as if he is going to have to send her early. She owns the top last out speed fig and is back in with state breds here for Rice.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

• R4: #3 Choate Bridge 8-1
• R6: #10 Crossing Verazanno 8-1
• R7: #2 Athena Dancer 10-1
• R7: #12 Highway Queen 10-1
• R10: #4 Killolean Rose 15-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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