Thursday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

The Pick 6 on Wednesday with a big carryover started off chalky with four straight short prices, but Coinage pulled off the upset in the With Anticipation as my second choice and then Raining Candy closed out the sequence at hefty odds of 22-1.

The $1 Pick 6 paid $83,602.50. Five out of six retuned $253.00.

We have just five days left of the meet, with Thursday’s feature the $120,000 Lucky Coin which drew a field of eight. The Wesley Ward trained Maven is the 5-2 morning line favorite.

Maven is likely going to end up even shorter, and both Holiday Stone at 6-1 and Pulsate at 4-1 look as if they are going to offer more bang for the buck.

Entries are out for Saturday’s card at Saratoga that featured a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge races—the $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) and the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

The Flower Bowl drew a field of seven fillies and mares with the winner stamping a ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is a key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). A field of six will go to the post in the 1 ¼ miles test.

The race drew Suburban (G2) winner Max Player, and Happy Saver, who is the defending champ but came up short in a third place finish in the Suburban in his last outing.

The race is the finale on Saturday’s 12 race card and I will have selections and analysis for the entire card available by Friday evening.

“Saratoga Live” is on today on FS2 from 1-6:30pm (and streaming on YouTube). Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga and Best Plays Reports for Wednesday click here .

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 1 ANALYSIS (1:05 P.M. ET)

 SAR Race 1 Clm $25,000

• #6 Blue Atlas 4-1
• #4 Coworth Park 9-5
• #1 Bee Bit 3-1
• #5 Claddagh's Run 5-1

Analysis: Blue Atlas makes her second start off a 11-month layoff here for the DePaz barn. Last out off the layoff she tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth against $40,000 claimers. She made just three starts last year including winning for this tag last July at Belmont Park. She should be tighter second off the bench for DePaz who is having a solid meet hitting at a 20% clip. She looks well spotted dropping in for a $25,000 tag.

Coworth Park had to steady in traffic heading into the first turn, tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish last out against Alw-1 company at Monmouth Park. Shew as in stakes company in her two previous starts, fifth place finishes in the Honey Ryder and Sanibel Island running into some nice fillies including Con Lima. She drops in for a tag here for Pletcher and returns off nearly a three month break here with decent looking works in the morning on the Jersey Shore. She fits here facing easier.

SARATOGA 7 ANALYSIS (4:29 ET)

SAR Race 7 OClm $80,000N2X

• #5 Motivated Seller 4-1
• #7 Gotta Go Mo 3-1
• #9 Time Limit 2-1
• #2 Can the Queen 8-1

Analysis: Motivated Seller makes her second start off the bench and her first go on turf here for the Brown barn. last out off a seven-month layoff the filly dueled for the early lead in the slop and got clear heading for home but weakened late and finished third. She was unable to take full advantage of a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. Last year she won her first two career starts and then missed in the Fort Springs Stakes at Keeneland by a neck. The barn is 26% winners with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff. She should take to turf. She is by Into Mischief out of the turf stakes winning mare Coup who won eh 2012 Hilltop at Pimlico. Brown is 16% winners with runners trying turf for the first time. She has some early zip and should take to the surface switch.

Gotta Go Mo pressed the early pace and finished gamely in a head loss last out at this level at this distance her on Aug. 11 as the beaten chalk. Two back she was fourth in the Goldwood at Monmouth Park behind the sharp Caravel who came out of that race to win the Caress (G3) in her next outing. Three back the Kimmel trainee was beaten just a nose to Caravel in the The Very One at Pimlico. She has landed in the money in 7 of her 9 career starts on turf and is a logical threat in this spot.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

• R5: #8 Aruba 8-1
• R5: #6 Complicate 10-1
• R7: #2 Can the Queen 8-1
• R8: #2 Dark Storm 8-1
• R8: #6 Glory Road 10-1
• R9: #8 Let’s Be Clear 15-1
• R10: #9 Beau Brown 12-1

Good luck today!

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