Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The first few days of the Belmont Park have been pretty mediocre for us and our trip to Woodbine for a couple of stakes yesterday were unproductive, but we have a chance to get well this afternoon.

Belmont Park has a solid 10 race card on tap with the feature one of the better wagering races we have seen so far at the meet. A field of 13 three-year-old fillies will go in the $150,000 Pebbles at one mile on the outer turf course.

Trainer Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners including my top pick Minaun who is 8-1 on the morning line The filly looks capable of improving off her fifth-place finish in the Lake George (G3) at Saratoga in her last outing. Luis Saez picks up the mount and is coming off an outstanding meeting at Saratoga.

Brown has won the Pebbles in four of the last five runnings. The race was not contested last year. He won the 2019 running with Blowout, with Stella di Camelot in 2018 and saddled the 2017 winner Rubilinda.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 from 1:00 to 2:00 ET and then on FS1 from 2:00 to 6:00 with the action from Belmont Park. TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Sunday click here .

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #8 Pop the Bubbly 4-1
• #7 Fist Full of Dice 8-1
• #4 Hit the Nail 5-2
• #2 Lady Thornhill 2-1

Analysis: Pop the Bubbly was bumped coming out of the gate stalked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a third-place finish in the slop at the Spa last out in a race washed off the grass. This filly has now landed in the money in 5 of 6 trips without picking up her diploma. She only has one trip on turf coming in her second career start and it was a solid second last November at the Big A. The third-place finisher exited that race to graduate next out. She has a solid enough turf pedigree for a state bred, by War Dancer out of a Sligo Bay mare. Kendrick picks up the call and should have her forwardly placed here in this spot.

Fist Full of Dice was off poorly leaving her behind the field and she came with a good late run to finish fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths in her first start in New York at the Spa. She was third and second in her two previous starts at Belterra Park on turf. Saez is off our top pick and lands on this filly. Not much of a turf pedigree but most of these don't. She will need to break better than she did her last two starts and fits here if she does.

BELMONT PARK 9 ANALYSIS (5:16 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Pebbles

• #3 Minaun 8-1
• #1 Plum Ali 7-2
• #12 Runaway Rumour 6-1
• #7 Nazuna 5-1

Analysis: Minaun stalked the early pace and did not show her usual punch late in a fifth-place finish in the Lake George (G3) last out at the Spa, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. The winner Technical Analysis came back to win the Lake Placid (G2) and the third-place finisher Toby's Heart won the Music City at Kentucky Downs in her next outing on Sept. 12. Two back our top pick came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Wild Applause behind Runaway Rumour. She won a Group 2 at Cork in Ireland in her second career start before shipping state side and landing with Brown. The trainer has won this race in four of the last five editions. I like the switch to Saez and she should work out a good trip sitting about mid pack. The 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Plum Ali stalked the early pace in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G3), came with a five wide rally, was carried out father and made up some ground late to finish fourth. She was fifth two back in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) behind repeat winner Santa Barbara who won the Beverly D. (G1) at Arlington Park in her next start. She was second to Con Lima three back in the Wonder Again (G3) at 1 1/4 miles. The cut back to a mile may suit her as she has run well at the distance and won the Miss Grillo (G2) last year at 1 1/16 miles. She had Ortiz aboard for that win and is reunited with him here with Rosario in Canada.

Runaway Rumour is coming off a solid second to technical Analysis in the Lake Placid (G2) last out on yielding ground at Saratoga. She won her first three starts including the Wild Applause over our top pick. She only missed landing in the exacta was in the Lake George where she was fourth and she ran pretty well against that solid group. She draws a tough post in this big field and likely is going to be farther back than she was last out. If Lezcano can work out a trip for this gal she figures to be in the mix late at a decent enough price.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R1: #7 Fist Full of Dice 8-1
• R3: #2 Espresso Shot 8-1
• R4: #5 Luna Warrior 8-1
• R5: #7 Creative Legacy 8-1
• R5: #3 Carly Hustle 12-1
• R6: #12 Buckortwo 8-1
• R6: #4 I’m Over U 12-1
• R7: #12 Dr. Duke 8-1
• R9: #3 Minaun 8-1
• R10: #9 War Light 12-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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