Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Santa Anita Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

We cap off the week on Sunday with a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races, one on each coast.

At Belmont Park a field of nine go to the post in the $400,000 Frizette (G1) with the winner earning a starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). The Steve Asmussen trained Echo Zulu is the 3-5 morning line favorite. I am going to go looking for a bit more value with the Todd Pletcher trained A Mo Reay.

At Santa Anita eight fillies and mares will line up in the $200,000 Zenyatta (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The race is a qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

Trainer Bob Baffert has a pair of runners, the 2-1 morning line favorite As Time Goes By and the three-year-old filly Private Mission (5-2).

Of the two Private Mission looks as if she may have more upside. She won the Torrey Pines (G3) last out. She was originally being pointed toward the $1 million Cotillion (G1) at Parx Racing but Baffert kept her home for the Zenyatta.

There is nothing I enjoy more right now than trying to beat Baffert, and the lone shipper in the field, Lady Kate (8-1) looks as if she has a shot of an upset. She makes her second start off a break and is coming in off a game runner up finish in the Groupie Doll at Ellis Park.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Santa Anita.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 from 12:30 to 6:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park. TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

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Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (1:00 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 OClm $100,000C (1:00 ET)

• #5 Flower Point 8-5
• #4 Honey Cake 2-1
• #3 Madeleine Must 9-5
• #1 Sosua 6-1

Analysis: Flower Point stretches back out to seven furlongs after stalking the early pace and finishing evenly in a fifth-place finish in the Caress (G3) at the Spa going 5 1/2 furlongs. The runner up in that race was In Good Spirits who came back to win the Ladies Sprint (G3) at Kentucky Downs in her next outing on Sept. 11. Two back our top pick came with a good late rally to beat Alw-2 optional claimers over the turf here. He has worked well since his last start and Shug appears to have this guy in a good spot here.

Honey Cake came off an eight-month layoff last out in the Nassau (G2) at Woodbine which was his North American debut. He carved out the early fractions and tired to finish sixth. He cuts back a furlong here and his last win which was in France came at this distance. He tried Group 3 company twice overseas with a sixth at Longchamp last may the best finish. He is in good hands with Thomas and this should move forward here with the class drop and the cut back in distance.

BELMONT PARK 8 ANALYSIS (4:44 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Waya G3

• #6 Beautiful Lover 9-2
• #7 My Sister Nat 1-1
• #4 Orglandes 6-1
• #2 Always Shopping 5-1

Analysis: Beautiful Lover returns off a three month break here for the Clement barn, last seen in June beating $100,000 optional claimers here going 1 1/16 miles. She was fifth two back at Tampa Bay Downs in the Florida bred Distaff Turf which was her first start after going from Brown to Clement. Last year she was 0 for 5 but ran several solid races including runner up finishes in the Hillsborough (G2) and Matchmaker (G3). She has worked well for her return and needs to run back to her best figures to have a shot of beating the imposing chalk in here. Rosario sticks and we should get most of the 9-2 morning line.

My Sister Nat has lost seven in a row since winning this race last year when it was run earlier in the year at the Spa. She went on to finish second in the Glen Falls (G2) and was only beaten a head in the Flower Bowl (G1) before checking in ninth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). This year in those same two races she was second and third and has been much tougher than she catches here. There is not a ton of early zip signed up here and she figures to be less than her even money morning line.

SANTA ANITA 8 ANALYSIS (4:34 P.M. PT)

Race 8 The Zuma Beach

• #8 Il Capitano 8-1
• #5 Silver Surfer 7-2
• #4 Mackinnon 8-5
• #1 Thirty Four Coupe 4-

Il Capitano set the early fractions and could not hold off Mackinnon late two back, that foe coming back to win the Del Mar Juvenile Turf last out and is in here. Our top pick then went on to graduate last out in a gate to wire score. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers in a race without much early pace signed up. He is in good hand with the capable Lerner barn and is out of a stakes placed Exceed and Excel mare that ash dropped two other turf winners. She is going to be a decent price in this spot and looks as if she still has some upside.

Silver Surfer stalked the early pace, got stuck behind foes inside the final furlong, angled out and finisher up well for third in the Juvenile Turf, beaten 1 3/4 lengths and missing the place spot by just a nose. She was making her U.S. debut after shipping in and landing with the D'Amato barn. She broke her maiden two back at Fairyhouse in Ireland in a 13 horse field. She makes her second start off nearly a three-month break and should be able to improve off her last effort with a better trip.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R2: #8 Peacebethejourney 8-1
• R2: #3 Salino 10-1
• R3: #3 The Great Gazoo 8-1
• R4: #5 Doctor Jeff 8-1
• R5: #6 Wicked Fast 10-1
• R9: #2 A Mo Reay 8-1
• R9: #8 Gerrymander 8-1
• R10: #2 Bronx Bomber 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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