Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

After four Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races on Sunday there will be just one left on the schedule, the $200,000 Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland next Wednesday.

This afternoon we have three at Keeneland and one at Belmont Park. The QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot on Oct. 16 may produced a few Breeders’ Cup starters that will come across the pond on short rest.

At Belmont Park the $150,000 Futurity (G3) winner earns a spot in the starting gate for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2). Trainer Wesley Ward scratched both of his fillies Poppy Flower and Chi Town Lady out of yesterday’s Matron (G3) to take on the boys.

At Keeneland the $200,000 Indian Summer is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Juvenile Turf Sprint. A field of 10 go to the post and Ward has the 4-5 morning line favorite Averaly Jane, who is undefeated in three starts on the main track.

Letruska will be the short priced favorite in the $500,000 Spinster (G1), a major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). She takes on a couple of talented foes in Bonny South and Dunbar Road.

The $$200,000 Bourbon (G2) is a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). 16 were entered with 14 set to start in a wide open affair. The Ken McPeek trained Tiz the Bob is the 3-1 morning line favorite but has to overcome the 12 post.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my 10 strongest plays from Belmont Park and Keeneland.

“America’s Day at the Races” on FS1 and FS2 from 12:30 to 5:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park. The NBC Sports Network picks up the Keeneland action from 5:00 to 6:00 ET. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start: 

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (12:35 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #8 Ruthenian 4-1
• #9 Skylander 12-1
• #7 Provocateur 7-2
• #4 Verbal 3-1

Analysis: Ruthenian debuts for the Clement barn that is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. This guy is bred to like grass. He is by Union Rags out of the multiple turf graded stakes winner Ruthenia ($339,635) who has dropped three winners including a pair of turf winners, top earner turf stakes winner Our Bay B Ruth ($343,298). A steady string of works on the morning tab and this guy should be fit and ready to go.

Skylander was off poorly having to steady early, came with a wide trip and was a non-factor in the stretch in a well beaten seventh place finish. He stretches out to a mile here for the Mott barn that is 17% winners with second out maidens. He is by Quality Road out of the G3 turf stakes winner Fitful Skies ($225,868) who has dropped three foals to race and they have all won on grass. It would be no surprise to see a better effort out of this guy and he should end up a decent price.

BELMONT PARK 5 ANALYSIS (2:43 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 5 The Futurity G3

• #4 Slipstream 4-1
• #5 Chi Town lady 2-1
• #8 Poppy Flower 5-2
• #1 Run Curtis Run 12-1

Analysis: Slipstream is coming off a sharp maiden win last out going seven furlongs here, taking the field gate to wire and drawing away to win by 5 1/4 lengths. The Ward duo are going to take all the attention here and this colt may end up sneaking off at a decent enough price. He did run fifth behind Poppy Flower in his debut but has shown improvement with each outing. Rosario sticks and he is quick enough to handle the cut back to six furlongs.

Chi Town Bay and her stablemate were both scratched out of Saturday's Matron to take on the boys here. This gal broke her maiden in her debut at Keeneland over good ground and then tracked the early pace and finished up strongly top win the Bolton Landing last out at the Spa over yielding footing. There is a bit of rain in the forecast which this gal will not mind.

KEENELAND 8 ANALYSIS (4:44 P.M. ET)

KEE Race 8 The Indian Summer

• #1 Sonnyisnotsofunny 5-1
• ##7 Averly Jane 4-5
• #10 Diamond City 4-1
• #2 Kaufymaker 7-2

Analysis: Sonnyisnotsofunny dueled for the early lead, took command and drew away to break his maiden in his debut by 8 3/4 lengths going five furlongs on the main track at Ellis Park. The third and fourth place finishers in that ace came back to graduate in their next starts. Make moves this guy to the turf now and is 14% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. He is by American Pharoah out of a Hennessy mare that has dropped one other dirt winner, no turf winners to date. He has the rail and some early speed and if he takes to turf he looks like a player here. The barn has been chilly but is showing signs he may be coming out of his funk.

Averly Jane is going to be the short priced favorite for the Ward barn. She has not been tested in three starts, winning by a combined 19 1/4 lengths, her last two against the boys. Last out she went gate to wire to win the off the turf Skidmore, taking advantage of a racing strip that was playing to inside speed. She should take to turf, she is by Midshipman out of a Richter Scale mare that has dropped two other runners including turf stakes winner Chattell ($111,540).

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R1: #9 Skylander 12-1
• R5: #1 Run Curtis Run 12-1
• R6: #3 Zaajel 10-1
• R7: #4 Phoebe’s Frosty 8-1
• R8: #9 No Word 8-1
• R9: #10 Everesting 10-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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