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Breeders' Cup 2020 Juvenile Odds, Preview, Predictions

 



Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Morning-Line Odds

BC Juvenile Odds - Contenders

  • Jackie's Warrior 7/5
  • Essential Quality 4/1
  • Reinvestment Risk 9/2
2020 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Odds (11/6/2020)
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Camp Hope Robby Albarado Kenneth McPeek 30/1
2 King Fury Brian Hernandez Kenneth McPeek 15/1
3 Reinvestment Risk Irad Ortiz Chad Brown 9/2
4 Likeable John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 15/1
5 Essential Quality Luis Saez Brad Cox 4/1
6 Keepmeinmind Jose Ortiz Robertino Diodoro 30/1
7 Jackie's Warrior Joel Rosario Steven Asmussen 7/5
8 Classier Florent Geroux Bob Baffert 15/1
9 Sittin on Go Corey Lanerie Dale Romans 12/1
10 Dreamer's Disease David Cohen Robertino Diodoro 30/1
11 Next Gerardo Corrales Wesley Ward 15/1
12 Hot Rod Charlie Tyler Gaffalione Doug O'Neill 30/1
13 Rombauer Javier Castellano Michael McCarthy 15/1
14 Calibrate Ricardo Santana Steven Asmussen 20/1

Field Subject to Change

The History

Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988.

Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start.

Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001.

Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006, with Nyquist following in his hoof prints in 2015.

Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. In 2014, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.

Storm the Court posted the biggest upset in the 36-year history of the event when he defeated fellow longshot Anneau d’Or in 2019.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fast Facts

  • Favorites: 12 for 36 (33%)
  • Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
  • Highest: $93.80 (Storm the Court, 2019)

Volponi blew up the tote board, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1. Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth the following year on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.

The great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in the 2010 renewal and finishing her career with 19 wins from 20 starts. In 2014, Bayern made a left turn coming out of the gate before going gate-to-wire, holding off Toast of New York and California Chrome in another whale of a photo.

In 2015, American Pharoah capped off a historic, legendary season by winning the Triple Crown in the spring and Juvenile in the fall with a brilliant, gate-to-wire score. Arrogate gave his trainer Bob Baffert a record three in a row when he ran past California Chrome in the final strides.

It’s the Juvenile indeed!!!!

2020 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Betting Resources

  • Distance: 1 1/16 miles
  • Purse: $2 Million
  • Age: 2YO(c&g)
  • Date: Friday, November 6
  • Time: 5:10 p.m. ET

How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Juvenile

The Best

7-Jackie’s Warrior puts his undefeated record on the line as the 7-5 morning line favorite when he looks for his fifth consecutive win in his first try around two turns for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. After breaking his maiden when sitting just off the early pace when going five furlongs at Churchill in June, he has seen the distance of his races, all stakes, increase by a furlong each time.

He won the G2 Saratoga Special in August and G1 Hopeful on Labor Day, both at Saratoga, in an easy, front running style then won the G1 Champagne at Belmont in October on the lead by over five lengths. In his last two starts he has been geared down at the end by his rider Joel Rosario, leading one to believe the extra sixteenth won’t be an issue here.

3-Reinvestment Risk was given the unenviable task of chasing Jackie’s Warrior around there in his last two starts after breaking his maiden on debut in early August at the Spa for Chad Brown. Perhaps he’ll be better suited not only going longer but in a bigger field, one that should provide some pace pressure on Jackie’s Warrior and a more favorable trip for this guy.

5-Essential Quality has won both of his starts impressively for trainer Brad Cox. He stormed home from off the pace going six furlongs at Churchill on their delayed Kentucky Derby day card on Labor Day weekend then sat just off the pace before running away from his eight rivals in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at this trip over the course.

The Rest

9-Sittin On Go will be making his first start in over two months, having won the G3 Iroquois on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill going a mile with a last-to-first tally at 24-1 less than three weeks after breaking his maiden on debut at Ellis Park.

13-Rombauer closed from last in the G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita to fall less than a length short of getting the win in his first start on dirt and at this distance. He broke his maiden and finished sixth in his prior two starts at a mile on turf at Del Mar.

2-King Fury wheels back in less than two weeks for Ken McPeek having won the Street Sense at Churchill most recently. He’ll be making his fourth start in less than 10 weeks having broken his maiden on debut before an eighth-place finish when wide throughout in the Breeders’ Futurity. It’s worth noting that his three prior starts were at this distance. Stablemate 1-Camp Hope joins him in the gate after breaking his maiden on the Street Sense undercard in his debut and at this trip.

11-Next won his last two, a maiden sprint at Kentucky Downs on turf and an off-the-turf allowance contest going this trip at Keeneland in front running fashion by almost a dozen lengths.

4-Likeable started his career with a narrow defeat going seven furlongs at Saratoga in late August before romping in gate-to-wire fashion going a mile at Belmont in his latest back in mid-September.

14-Calibrate led a maiden bunch every step of the way in his debut sprinting at Saratoga so impressively he was sent off as the 2-1 second choice in the Breeders’ Futurity where he failed to fire and finished in a dead heat for sixth.

8-Classier was a late entry and would be making his second start just two weeks after going gate to wire in a six-and-a-half-furlong maiden event at Santa Anita on debut.

10-Dreamer’s Disease has won two of four, including an allowance/optional claimer going a mile over the course last out in front-running style. The barn also sends out the maiden 6-Keepmeinmind, second in his debut going a mile at Churchill before rounding out the exacta in the Breeders’ Futurity at 52-1.

12-Hot Rod Charlie added blinkers to break his maiden going a mile on dirt at Santa Anita after mixed results sprinting and on turf in his first three tries.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Predictions

If I’m Right…

If Jackie’s Warrior wins this as impressively as he has his last two starts and we get wild outcomes in the Distaff and Classic, we may be looking at Horse of the Year. I’d vote for him.

Live Longshot…

I really liked how 13-Rombauer handled the dirt in his first try over it last out. He should get some pace in here and will be overlooked on the tote. 15-1 morning line odds seems about right.

Listen to "The Big A"

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile


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