2021 Rebel Stakes Picks, Predictions, Odds

Mar. 12, 2021

Horse Racing Expert

Rebel Stakes
Betting Resources and Picks

  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 13, 2021
  • Post-Time: 6:16 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: FS1, NBC, NBCSN, TVG
  • Race: 11
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Oaklawn Park
  • Location: Hot Springs, Arkansas

Rebel Stakes
Picks, Analysis and Odds

1 – Caddo River (9/5)

Romped from outside post in Smarty Jones over this strip, his first start around two turns. Now he draws the rail and has the benefit of a race over the course. Should be able to control pace BUT I cannot imagine either Hozier or Concert Tour letting him too far out of their sights.

2 – Big Lake (12/1)

Ships in from Fair Grounds on a two-race win streak since stretching out to this trip. He also had Lasix for his last two but will have to race without it in here. Could use a little pace in front of him but I think he can get a piece at a nice price.

3 – Hozier (12/1)

The “other” Baffert, he finished well behind Concert Tour in their debuts then beat barnmate Fenway when stretching out to this distance for his second try. Maybe he is the one who does the dirty work in here and keeps Caddo Rover company as long as he can.

4 – Get Her Number (8/1)

Hasn’t been seen since taking the American Pharoah in his dirt debut having made his first two starts on turf. Beat fellow turfer Rombauer that day when they were a pole in front of third-place finisher Spielberg. Ambitious spot for sophomore debut, when you take the competition and a five-plus month layoff into consideration.


5 – Twilight Blue (15/1)

Got the job done in his first route effort having sprinted in his first five starts. Win did come locally but over a muddy surface. Would need to improve a lot in his graded stakes debut but if you’re going to try graded stakes company for the first time and think the distance helped his cause last out you might as well take a shot at this purse.

6 – Keepmeinmind (4/1)

When you finish second and third in G1 races like the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind eventual Eclipse champion Essential Quality as a maiden then get your first win in the KJC you’re obviously talented. He’s facing a couple of potential toughies in here, but he has already faced one of the best of the crop thus far and has run pretty well. I don’t love that his seasonal debut was delayed nearly a month, as he was supposed to return in the twice rescheduled Southwest, but he’s been training nicely and always seems to fire a good shot.

7 – Concert Tour (2/1)

He’s run well in his first two starts sprinting, but he’s gotten great setups in both. Last out in the San Vicente it took him longer than I liked to get by his stablemate, who came back to run an even fourth in the Gotham. I know Baffert comes in and takes a lot of money from this place, but this guy will beat me if he wins. I think he’s the reason to play this race because I don’t want him.

8 – Super Stock (6/1)

Lobe win came sprinting in a Texas-bred stakes back in August of last year, but he hit the board in the board in three consecutive open stakes going long, including the Breeders’ Futurity. This will be his first start in nearly five months, and he will need to improve to contend.

Rebel Stakes
Predictions - If I had $100

$60 win 6
$10 Exacta Box 6 over 1,2

TVG Horse Racing
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