2021 Florida Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds

Mar. 26, 2021

Horse Racing Expert

Florida Derby
Betting Resources and Picks

  • Date: Saturday, Mar. 27, 2021
  • Post-Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: NBCSN, TVG
  • Race: 14
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Gulfstream Park
  • Location: Hallandale Beach, Florida

Florida Derby
Picks, Analysis and Odds

1 - Nova Rags (12/1)

He battled on against stablemate Candy Man Rocket when second in the Sam F. Davis and gets a bit of a freshening for this. Aforementioned stablemate was awful in subsequent start. There isn’t a ton of early speed in here so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in a forward position early from his inside post.

2 - Quantum Leap (20/1)

Improved when stretching out to this distance when upsetting maidens at 22-1 most recently. Raced well in lone juvenile start when third then took so money off a layoff in the Prevalence maiden win so they had some aspirations for this colt earlier on. Another who could be forward early, he’ll have to get much faster to even hope for a piece of this.

3 - Jirafales (30/1)

Won his debut last year against Florida breds in a sprint before fifth place finishes in the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. Has broken slow or found trouble at the start in all three starts. Seems in over his head.

4 - Southern Passage (30/1)

Finished second to Prevalence in an allowance/optional claimer last out in which he was in for the tag. Lone win from eight starts came against maiden claimers in slop.

TVG Horse Racing
T&C's Apply, 18+/21+ in legal states

5 - Known Agenda (5/1)

Blinkers and Lasix seemed to wake him up last out when he took an allowance/optional claimer by 11 lengths over the course and at this trip. He loses the Lasix in here but maybe it was the blinkers that helped him focus. He’s the last horse to beat the favorite to the wire. You’d think that would amount for something. I don’t know what to do with him. He’ll be looking to add to trainer Todd Pletcher’s record five wins in the event and retains Irad Ortiz, meaning he’ll take plenty of money.

6 - Sigiloso (30/1)

He’s raced well while making up ground in his last few on turf but lone dirt start wasn’t particularly good. Appears overmatched.

7 - Greatest Honour (6-5)

The deserving favorite has won three in a row going a tad shorter over the course, including the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. Now he gets nine furlongs, the full length of the stretch and more seasoning under his belt. He’s done everything asked of him but he has yet to run a fast race. Lucky for him the majority of his rivals, including the ones in here, haven’t really either. This WILL be his toughest task to date but I can see his backers arguing that even this isn’t that tough.

8 - Soup and Sandwich (20/1)

He’s perfect in two starts, by one of the hottest sires in the world in Into Mischief and gets the services of Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, a five-time winner of this, in the boot. His debut sprinting was a much faster race in every way than his second start going two turns but that doesn’t mean he can’t improve going longer. Wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the lead. At the very least he should find himself in good position early.

9 - Collaborate (6/1)

While everyone is going gaga over Prevalence, he’s the lightly-raced horse I’ve been more impressed with this winter in Florida. Trouble in the slop on debut was followed by a breathtaking maiden score going a mile last out. If I were his connections, including rider Tyler Gaffalione, I’d gun him to the lead and make the others follow his lead. I think he has real talent and if anyone wins this by daylight I think it’s him. The pick.

10 - Spielberg (4/1)

Bob Baffert’s first ever Florida Derby winner comes in off of a solid runner-up performance to juvenile champ Essential Quality in the Southwest at Oaklawn. He’s already a graded stakes winner and gets Castellano in the saddle. With all of that said, he’s not for me. Save his last effort, I think his others are mediocre at best and he’ll have a tough time from his draw.

11 - Papetu (15/1)

He flattened out a bit after making a nice run in the Fountain of Youth when third. I wonder if he has some distance limitations and his draw doesn’t help.

Florida Derby
Predictions - If I had $100

$60 win 9
$20 Exacta Box 7-9

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