Manchester United vs Aston Villa Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Memories of recent renditions of a Villa Park roar on a European night are the only pre-match reflections required in the away dressing room. Any Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa predictions will likely lean towards the visitors considering what’s at stake: beat a flailing Manchester United team on Sunday and potentially return Champions League football to the Midlands.
The 38th and final task in England is straightforward after a fairytale campaign on the most prominent European domestic stage.
Villa's 16th-placed hosts suffered another disappointment in the Basque Country on Wednesday night. That might play into the hands of an Unai Emery-led hungry starting eleven in this closing fixture.
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Updated on 5/23/25
Analysis of the Match
Three successive Premier League victories move Aston Villa into a position where a win on the final day clinches Champions League qualification. If the league table is anything to go by, Villa couldn’t have asked for a much better opponent to decide their fate than Manchester United.
Sunday’s hosts enter the 38th and final fixture in 16th position and after losing the Europa League final. Regardless of the results this weekend, this will be Manchester United’s worst-ever Premier League finish. The lowest the Red Devils have previously slumped to was the eight position with 60 points under Erik ten Hag, last season. Ruben Amorim and this current crop, having laboured to a 39-point haul, has made the Dutchman’s version of United look competitive.
There’s no such worry in the Midlands. Unai Emery’s hopes of surpassing their fourth-placed finish from 2023/24 are still alive. Villa will exceed the 68 points accrued last season with a victory at Old Trafford. Considering the Spaniard’s side is at the top of the ten-game Premier League form table, boasting 24 points and 19 goals scored, many will expect joy to radiate from the terraces across the away end in Manchester on the final day.
After Wednesday’s European defeat, how does Amorim pick up his side off the floor to go again in a fixture that means very little to the football club?
Emery and his Villa side will be hopeful to take advantage of a team that can’t wait for this miserable season to end. Nothing but a victory will likely do for Aston Villa.
Manchester United Analysis and Form
Manchester United will be glad to see the back of this season. Losing the Europa League final to Premier League rivals Tottenham in midweek only adds to the pain of this campaign. United showed promise in the 1-0 defeat but missed a string of chances in the second half to get back into the tie.
United’s European run has certainly affected their league form. The focus has been on the continent. United remained the only unbeaten team in European competitions this season until Wednesday’s final.
Meanwhile, in the Premier League, the Red Devils haven’t won since March 16th. It’s eight straight league matches without a win, their longest winless run in the English top flight since the 1989/90 season.
Things should turn around soon, especially at home. United have won the xG battle in each of their last three home league matches but taken just one point.
It’s not a great time for them to be facing a side chasing down a top five spot but the hosts may have a better chance than the narrative suggests.
Aston Villa Analysis and Form
It looked like an impossible task for Unai Emery to better his first full season in charge of Aston Villa. A fourth place finish and a Conference League semi final outperformed expectations at Villa Park. This campaign might just do the same.
The Champions League quarter-final run was impressive. Their form since March is even more so. Villa were tenth in the table on matchday 27. A run of eight wins in nine league matches has put them right in the mix for Champions League qualification.
They have, by far, the worst goal difference of the sides around them. Emery needs three points and results elsewhere to go his way if Villa are to have any chance of repeating this season’s European exploits.
They’re grinding out victories. Six of those eight victories have been to nil. Since the start of March, they’ve won the xG battle in every match they’ve played and have the lowest xGA figure in the Premier League.
Normally, a match against a mathematically safe side sitting in 16th spot would be just what was needed. But this is Manchester United and a trip to Old Trafford, a stadium Villa has won just one of their last 14 visits to.
It’s a sprint towards the finishing line, but only once the full-time whistle blows will we know if the Villas started it too late.
Head to Head Analysis
Manchester United have not lost against Aston Villa since November 2022. During this period of time, the Red Devils have collected four wins, including in the last three meetings at Old Trafford, and one draw, back in October at Villa Park (0-0).
Historically, this has been a tough trip for the Villans, who have collected just one success (1-0 in September 2021) in their past 13 visits to Manchester United's home ground. During this period, the hosts have won 11 of the home matches against Aston Villa and drew 2-2 in December 2019.
United have enjoyed home successes also in the domestic cup competitions, knocking out Aston Villa in both the FA Cup, 1–0 in January 2022, and the EFL Cup (4-2) in November of the same year.
In the past five seasons, since December 2019, this fixture has produced plenty of goals. In fact, both teams have found the back of the net on seven occasions, and eight games have produced three goals or more.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Bayindir; Amass, Heaven; Shaw, Fredricson; Mainoo, Ugarte; Diallo, Mount, Eriksen; Hojlund.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Mings, Konsa, Digne; Kamara, Onana; Rogers, Asensio, McGinn; Watkins.
Ruben Amorim is likely to rotate his squad after the Europa League final against Spurs on Wednesday. The Portuguese manager is expected to make seven changes from the starting eleven that lost 1-0 against Chelsea last Friday.
Bayindir should replace Onana in goal, with Amass, Heaven, and Fredricson coming into the back four. Diallo, Mount, and Hojlund are likely to retain their spot, while Obi-Martin might feature in the second half.
Lisandro Martinez will definitely not be available due to a knee injury. Defenders Diogo Dalot, De Ligt, and Yoro are a doubt, whereas Joshua Zirkzee’s condition will be evaluated closer to kick-off. However, the latest reports show all of them are ready for the final match of the season.
Marcus Rashford is likely to miss his return to Old Trafford due to a hamstring injury. Midfielder Youri Tielemans might also have to watch from the stands the last game of the season for Villa.
Unai Emery will make two changes to the formation that beat Tottenham 2-0. Tyrone Mings will replace Pau Torres at centre-back and Lucas Digne will play in place of Ian Maatsen at left back. Rogers, Asensio, and McGinn will play behind the lone striker, Ollie Watkins.
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