Last Updated Apr 16, 2022, 9:15 AM

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Atlanta Braves (3-4) will be on the road to take on the San Diego Padres (4-3) in the first game of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM ET at Petco Park in San Diego, California and can be viewed on ESPN+.  

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Score Prediction

Atlanta 5, San Diego 3 

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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Predictions

The Atlanta Braves opened the season against Cincinnati. After taking two of four against the Reds, Atlanta lost two of three in their next series against the Nationals. Other than a 16-run game against Washington, the Braves have scored just 18 runs in their other six games. The pitching for Atlanta also needs some improvement as they have a current ERA of 5.67. Right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton is expected to take the mound on Thursday. Morton has pitched in one game so far this season and allowed two hits, two earned runs, and struck out five batters in 5.1 innings.  

San Diego enters this series after losing two of three on the road to the Giants. Prior to the series with the Giants, San Diego won three of four games against the Diamondbacks. The Padres started the season with 20 runs in their first four games, but the bats have slowed down a bit with just seven runs in their next three. Aside from a 13-run game by the Giants the pitching has been solid for the Padres, allowing a combined 15 runs in their other six games. Joe Musgrove is scheduled to start for the Padres. Musgrove has pitched in one game this season and gave up five hits, two earned runs, and struck out eight batters in 6.0 innings of work.  

I like the Braves to win this matchup. Atlanta has won their last six games when playing in San Diego and I think that streak will continue on Thursday. Both starting pitchers looked solid in their first games of the season so there is a chance we see a low scoring ball game. The total is currently set at eight which I think could go either way so will be sticking with the Braves moneyline.  

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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Odds

  • Braves (-105)
  • Padres (-115)
  • Braves -1.5 (+155)
  • Padres +1.5 (-180)
  • Over 7.5 (-110)
  • Under 7.5 (-110)

MLB Odds | Futures Odds

San Diego has gone UNDER the run total in five of its last six games when facing the NL at night. (Getty)

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Resources

  • Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
  • Matchup: NL East vs. NL West
  • Stadium: Petco Park
  • Location: San Diego, California
  • TV-Time: ESPN+ - 8:10 p.m. ET

Atlanta Braves Betting Analysis

  • SU: 3-4
  • RL: 1-6
  • O/U: 4-2-1

After two series the Braves are 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS, and have an O/U record of 4-2-1. Atlanta has had recent success against the Padres, going 7-1 SU in their last eight games against San Diego. The total has gone over in four of San Diego’s last five games against an opponent in the National League.  

The Braves had a 16-run game against Washington, but other than that have struggled to get the bats going. As a team Atlanta has a batting average of .238 (12th), on base percentage of .342 (6th), a slugging percentage of .390 (13th), and 34 total runs (T-2nd). First baseman Matt Olson has been productive thus far with a batting average of .391 (9-23), a home run, and one RBI. Third baseman Austin Riley has also been solid with a batting average of .333 (8-24), two home runs, and five RBIs.  

The pitching for Atlanta is still finding its rhythm. As a team they have had zero quality starts, are allowing opponents a batting average of .238 (19th), and have ERA of 5.14 (26th). Charlie Morton is scheduled to take the mound on Thursday. Morton has pitched in one game so far this season and allowed two hits, two earned runs, and struck out five batters in 5.1 innings. Morton was excellent last season, going 14-6 with an ERA of 3.34, but did not see any action against the Padres. 

San Diego Padres Betting Analysis

  • SU: 4-3
  • RL: 5-2
  • O/U: 2-5

After wrapping up their series with the Giants on Wednesday the Padres are 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, and an O/U record of 2-5. Going back to last season the total has gone over in 13 of the Padres last 20 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last six games against Atlanta.  

San Diego started the season strong winning three of four against the Diamondbacks and putting up 20 total runs in the process. Things have slowed down since, losing two of three to the Giants and scoring just seven runs throughout the series. As a team the Padres have a batting average of .242 (11th), on base percentage of .343 (7th), slugging percentage of .359 (19th), and 27 total runs scored (T-5th). Left fielder Jurickson Profar has led the way offensively with a batting average of .353, two home runs, and seven RBI’s.  

Aside from allowing 13 runs in a game to San Francisco, the pitching has been strong for the Padres to start the season. As a team they have had zero quality starts, are allowing opponents a batting average of .214 (11th), and have an ERA of 4.50. Joe Musgrove is expected to start for the Padres. Musgrove has pitched in one game this season and gave up five hits, two earned runs, and struck out eight batters in 6.0 innings of work. Last season Musgrove went 11-9 with an ERA of 3.18, but did not pitch against the Braves. 

Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Austin Riley - 3B (Last Game: 2-4, HR, R, RBI, BB)
  • ATL: Ozzie Albies - 2B (Last Game: 1-3, BB)
  • SND: Manny Machado - 3B (Last Game: 1-4, 2B, R)
  • SND: Eric Hosmer - 1B (Last Game: 0-3, BB)

Probable Pitchers

  • ATL: Charlie Morton - RHP (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 5 K, 0.56 WHIP)
  • SND: Joe Musgrove - RHP (0-0, 3.00 ERA, 8 K, 0.83 WHIP)

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Conclusion

Both teams will be searching for a win after each losing on Wednesday. This will be San Diego’s first home game of the season, but I still give a slight edge to Atlanta here because of the bullpen. Charlie Morton looked great in his first start, allowing just two hits and two runs. A solid start from Morton in this one should allow the rest of the bullpen to finish the job and bring Atlanta back to .500.  

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