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NBA

Game 5 – Heat vs. Celtics Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

NBA Playoffs Picks
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The NBA Playoffs resume on Thursday night with Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from TD Garden in Boston at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. (Getty)

MIAMI HEAT vs. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING PREDICTION

The Heat had a chance to crack out the brooms against Boston after winning the first three matchups of this series prior to Game 4, however, the Celtics clearly had different plans in mind, as Jayson Tatum and co. managed to dodge elimination by knocking down 40% of their 45 three-point attempts on the way to a 116-99 road victory to cut the series lead to 3-1 on Tuesday night.

To be fair, asking Miami to stand toe-to-toe with Boston in a contest that the Celtics launch so many longballs at such an efficient clip is a tall order, in general, but the Heat did very little to support their cause in Game 4 anyways, as they scored just 99 points on 44% from the field and 25% from three-point range in the most recent meeting between these teams.

In the first three matchups of this series, the Heat rumbled to to three straight wins by cranking out some insane offensive numbers, averaging 121 PPG on 52% from the field and 48% from three-point territory, but bettors that have followed this Miami’ team over the course of the year are well aware that a scoring verage isn’t their typical path to success.

The fact that Miami has reached this point certainly isn’t a fluke. The Heat leave it all on the floor in every single contest, and they fear nobody. They play great defense, they move the ball well on offense, Erik Spoelstra may very well be the best coach in the league, and Jimmy Butler is capable of being the best player on the floor on any given night.

However, let’s also be mindful of the fact that the Heat ranked just 25th in offensive rating and 27th in three-point percentage during the regular season, and while ultimately, their offense has been much better than that in the playoffs, Miami may need to return to the style of play that separated them from the pack in years past in order to further their success – controlling the pace and leaning on their defense.

For a wide variety of reasons, this situation is much different than your average playoff team teetering on the brink of elimination early in a series. The Celtics are the only team in the entire league that ranks Top 3 in both offensive and defensive rating, and it’s pretty rare to see a team down 3-1 in a series with two home games left to play.

But the Celtics have clearly lacked mental toughness at times during these playoffs. They’ve posted a mediocre record of 9-8 since the start of the postseason, which includes a record of 0-5 in matchups decided by seven points or less; and the Tatum-Brown duo continues to disappear in big moments, highlighted by Boston’s two superstars combining for just 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in the fourth quarters of Games 1-3 in this series.

In Game 4, though, the Celtics finally pushed the pedal to the metal on defense and held Miami to less than 100 points for the first time in the series. But on the contrary, the Heat decided to take the night off in that department and allowed Boston to shoot 52% from the field, resulting in an ugly 17-point loss. 

Slamming the door on this Celtics’ squad isn’t going to be easy, and the fact that they entered this series as the stand-alone title favorite shouldn’t be taken lightly. But it’s only a matter of time before Miami puts the final nail in the coffin, though. Expect the Heat to balance out the equation with a physical defensive effort on Thursday night. Take the ‘under’ in Game 5.

Score Prediction: Celtics 105, Heat 102
Best Bet: Under 215.5 (-110)

MIA @ BOS Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+7.5 -108 +5.5 -118 +4.5 even +5.5 -110 +5 -110 N/A N/A +8.5 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-7.5 -112 -5.5 -104 -4.5 -120 -5.5 -110 -5 -110 N/A N/A -8.5 -111  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
o215 -110 o108.5 -116 o109.5 -105 o109 -110 o109 -110 N/A N/A o215 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
u215 -110 u108.5 -106 u109.5 -115 u109 -110 u109 -110 N/A N/A u215 -110  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+265 +194 +225 +210 +210 N/A N/A +258  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-330 -245 -275 -260 -250 N/A N/A -324  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+7.5 -108 +2.5 even +3.5 -120 +3 -115 +3 -105 N/A N/A +8.5 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-7.5 -112 -2.5 -122 -3.5 even -3 -115 -3 -115 N/A N/A -8.5 -111  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
o215 -110 o54.5 -113 o54.5 -115 o55 -115 o54.5 -110 N/A N/A o215 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
u215 -110 u54.5 -113 u54.5 -105 u55 -115 u54.5 -110 N/A N/A u215 -110  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+265 +172 +175 +170 +175 N/A N/A +258  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-330 -215 -225 -210 -205 N/A N/A -324  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+7.5 -108 +2.5 -115 N/A +2.5 -125 +2.5 -115 N/A N/A +8.5 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-7.5 -112 -2.5 -105 N/A -2.5 -105 -2.5 -105 N/A N/A -8.5 -111  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
o215 -110 o54.5 -113 N/A o54.5 -115 o54.5 -105 N/A N/A o215 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
u215 -110 u54.5 -113 N/A u54.5 -115 u54.5 -115 N/A N/A u215 -110  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+265 +148 N/A N/A +145 N/A N/A +258  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-330 -184 N/A N/A -170 N/A N/A -324  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+7.5 -108 +2.5 -120 N/A +2.5 -125 +2.5 -115 N/A N/A +8.5 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-7.5 -112 -2.5 -102 N/A -2.5 -105 -2.5 -105 N/A N/A -8.5 -111  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
o215 -110 o52.5 -118 N/A N/A o52.5 -110 N/A N/A o215 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
u215 -110 u52.5 -108 N/A N/A u52.5 -110 N/A N/A u215 -110  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+265 +142 N/A N/A +150 N/A N/A +258  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-330 -176 N/A N/A -175 N/A N/A -324  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+7.5 -108 +1.5 -118 N/A +1.5 -120 +1.5 -110 N/A N/A +8.5 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-7.5 -112 -1.5 -104 N/A -1.5 -110 -1.5 -110 N/A N/A -8.5 -111  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
o215 -110 o52.5 -102 N/A N/A o53.5 even N/A N/A o215 -110  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
u215 -110 u52.5 -125 N/A N/A u53.5 -120 N/A N/A u215 -110  
Final
Miami Heat 549 Heat
+265 +118 N/A N/A +125 N/A N/A +258  
Boston Celtics 550 Celtics
-330 -144 N/A N/A -145 N/A N/A -324  

MIAMI HEAT vs. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Thursday, May 25, 2023
Venue: TD Garden
Location: Boston, Massachusetts
TV-Time: TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

MIAMI HEAT vs. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING STATS

Miami Heat
SU: 56-43
ATS: 43-54
O/U: 52-45
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Boston Celtics
SU: 66-33
ATS: 54-44-1
O/U: 54-44-1
PPG: 117.9
OPPG: 111.4

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Miami. (Getty)

MIAMI HEAT vs. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami's last 15 games.
  • The Heat are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston's last seven games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston's last seven home games.
  • The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Boston.
  • The Heat are 5-1 SU in their last six games against Boston.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 11 road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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