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College Basketball

Duke Blue Devils vs. FSU Seminoles Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

The No. 8 Duke Blue Devils head to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles this Tuesday night in an ACC clash at Donald L. Tucker Center. Game time on ESPN is slated for 9 p.m. (ET).

SCORE PREDICTION

Duke 72, Florida State 68

BEST BETS

Under 144.5 (-110) at Westgate SuperBook

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. FSU SEMINOLES PREDICTIONS

Duke rolled past North Carolina State by 15 points on Saturday to cover the 13.5-point spread at home. The lone loss this season in ACC play came against Miami on Jan. 8 as a 15-point home favorite. The Blue Devils also lost to Ohio State in late November as part of their straight- up 14-2 record in 16 games.

Florida State improved its SU conference record to 4-2 with Saturday’s five-point upset on the road against Syracuse as a 2.5-point underdog. It lost to Syracuse in its ACC opener in early December. The Seminoles also got tripped up by Wake Forest on Jan. 4 closing as slight one- point road underdogs. They are 10-5 SU through 15 games this season.

My SU lean in this ACC clash is with Duke on the road, but I am not completely sold on that bet against the spread. I do see the total combined score in this game staying lower than the current total line suggests to set up a solid play on the UNDER. Duke has only scored more than 76 points once in its last five games. Florida State has struggled to eclipse its season scoring average in its last few outings as well.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. FSU SEMINOLES BETTING ODDS

  • Duke -5 (-110)
  • FSU +5 (-110)
  • Over 144.5 (-110)
  • Under 144.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. FSU SEMINOLES BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: ACC
  • Date: Tuesday, January 18, 2022
  • Venue: Donald L. Tucker Center
  • Location: Tallahassee, Florida
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 9:00 p.m. ET

DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-2
  • ATS: 9-4-3
  • O/U: 8-8

The Blue Devils remain the cream of the crop in the ACC as the only nationally ranked team. While that is a bit of a surprise in its own right, Duke has earned its lofty spot in the AP Top 25. Betting on this team has been profitable since mid-December with a 6-2 record ATS over the last eight outings. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the team’s last six games.

Duke comes into Tuesday’s game with a clean slate on the latest injury report. Forward Paolo Banchero has been the leading scorer this season with 17.9 points per game. He is also first on the list in rebounds with 7.4 a game. Forward Wendell Moore Jr. is a close second with a 15.4- point scoring average and tops the stat sheet in assists with 4.8 a game.

Moving past the Blue Devils’ top two scorers, guard Trevor Keels is another key part of an offensive effort that is scoring an average of 83.1 PPG. He is adding 12.1 points to that total while shooting 40.7% from the field. Keels is also averaging 1.9 steals a game.

The team, as a whole, is shooting 49.2% from the field and 36.2% from three-point range. Duke is pulling down an average of 38.2 rebounds, including 10.6 on offense. It is holding opposing teams to an average of 65.2 PPG at the other end of the court.

FSU SEMINOLES BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-5
  • ATS: 6-9
  • O/U: 7-8

Even with covering their last time out, the Seminoles have been a tough team to bet on this season at 6-9 ATS through 15 games. They are just 3-7 against the closing number in their last 10 contests. The total stayed UNDER 150.5 points in Saturday’s 76-71 win. It has stayed UNDER three of the last four games.

Forward Malik Osborne is one notable name on Florida State’s current injury report with a bad ankle. He is averaging 11.1 points and a team-high 7.2 rebounds a game. Guard Caleb Mills is the team’s leading scorer this season with 13 PPG. He is shooting 42.3% from the field and 38% from outside the three point line. Mills is also the most reliable shooter from the free throw line at 85%.

Guards’ Matthew Cleveland and Anthony Polite have combined to score an average of close to 20 points a game as part of Florida State’s team scoring average of 73.2 PPG. Cleveland is connecting on 51.3% if his shots from the field.

The Seminoles’ team shooting average from the field is 44.8%. This drops to 34.9% from three point range and the conversion rate from the free throw line is 69.8%. Florida State is pulling down an average of 35.2 rebounds with 11 offensive boards a game. This defense is giving up an average of 68.1 PPG.

Duke has covered the spread in two straight games. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - DUKE BLUE DEVILS

  • Record: 14-2
  • VI Ranking: 6
  • PS/G: 83.1 (9th)
  • PA/G: 65.2 (87th)
  • ORtg: 117.1 (7th)
  • DRtg: 91.8 (48th)

INSIDE THE STATS - FSU SEMINOLES

  • Record: 10-5
  • VI Ranking: 44
  • PS/G: 73.2 (155th)
  • PA/G: 68.1 (168th)
  • ORtg: 104.2 (151st)
  • DRtg: 97 (155th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • DUKE: Paolo Banchero - F (17.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg)
  • DUKE: Wendell Moore - F (15.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg)
  • FSU: Caleb Mills - G (13 ppg)
  • FSU: Malik Osborne - F (11.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg)

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. FSU SEMINOLES BETTING CONCLUSION

Duke has gone 9-1 SU in its last 10 games against Florida State. However, the Seminoles have the slight 6-4 edge ATS. Recent trends on the total line favor a lower scoring game then Tuesday’s total line suggests. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in eight of those previous 10 meetings.

Recent series trends along with the current individual team betting trends only add value to the UNDER on the total line for Tuesday’s game.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. FSU SEMINOLES BETTING TRENDS

  • Duke has covered the spread in two straight games.
  • Duke has gone UNDER the point total in three of its last four games.
  • Duke has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
  • FSU has won 35 of its last 36 home games when playing at night.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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