Last Updated Mar 23, 2022, 9:51 PM

Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

Regular-season NBA action will resume on Wednesday night with a heavyweight non-conference clash between the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Score Prediction

Heat 116, Warriors 104

Best Bets

Heat -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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Warriors vs. Heat Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run – with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

The last couple of months were shaky without Draymond Green though, considering the Warriors enter Wednesday riding a relatively pedestrian 29-21 SU and 19-28-3 ATS stretch – while scoring 111.9 OPPG and allowing just 107.7 DPPG across that window.

On the other hand, Miami barreled out to an excellent start to the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch – with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from their brief nine-game December lull though (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way through March too, considering Miami boasts sturdy records of 33-14 SU and 26-20-1 ATS across their last 47 games – while ranking fourth in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.095 OE, 1.050 DE).

I’ll take Miami here, as the Heat are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS in their last 12 games, while tallying 107 OPPG and surrendering 108 DPPG during that span – setting the stage for a lopsided battle against a Warriors squad that’s averaging 95.3 OPPG across their latest 0-3 SU skid without Steph Curry.

Warriors vs. Heat Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Warriors vs. Heat Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Pacific vs. Southeast
  • Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2022
  • Venue: FTX Arena
  • Location: Miami, FL
  • TV-Time: NBA League Pass - 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Injury Report

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 47-24
  • ATS: 35-32-4
  • O/U: 30-39-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, the Warriors returned seeking immediate retribution to start the new season, as Golden State kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Wednesday riding a relatively pedestrian 29-19 SU stretch, while scoring just 111.9 OPPG and allowing 107.7 DPPG across that span. However, Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson, highlighted by the Warriors averaging 116 OPPG across their last 24 games.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 47-25
  • ATS: 40-31-1
  • O/U: 42-30

After last year’s underwhelming 40-32 SU showing, Miami made some bold offseason acquisitions in order to better suit needs at the offensive end – primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The transition went seamlessly at first, as the Heat kicked things off with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with Miami’s only ATS loses across that span coming in tough matchups against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

The depth that Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed in November though, considering a revolving door of health and safety concerns spiraled Miami into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. However, depth hasn’t been much of an issue recently, considering Miami enters Wednesday riding a sturdy 33-14 SU, 26-20-1 ATS run.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against Golden State. (AP)

Warriors vs. Heat Head-to-Head

The Warriors and Heat split a two-game-regular season set last year 1-1 SU, with both matchups soaring over the total at an average of 228.5 PPG. The most recent meeting between these teams took place back in January of this season though, which resulted in another relatively high-scoring victory for Golden State (O 216).

Key Players to Watch

  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (18.1 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.7 AST)
  • GSW: Draymond Green - PF (7.6 PPG, 7.5 REB, 7.1 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.9 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.8 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo (19 PPG, 10.3 REB, 3.5 AST)

Warriors vs. Heat Betting Conclusion

After extending their ATS losing streak to four games with a loss in Philly on Monday night (L, 113-106), the Heat return home for Wednesday’s contest as short favorites over the Warriors at FTX Arena – marking the fifth time Golden State has been an underdog across their last ten games.

I’ll take the under here, as the Warriors are 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games, while tallying 112.5 OPPG and allowing 113.9 DPPG during that timeframe – setting the stage for a lopsided battle against a Heat squad that’s averaging just 108.6 OPPG across their latest 6-3 SU run.

Warriors vs. Heat Betting Trends

  • The Warriors are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against Golden State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Warriors' games.
  • The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven matchups between Golden State and Miami.
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